by Richard A » Wed Nov 09, 2022 6:52 pm
Good question, Mactep. I suspect the answer will have a lot to do with what "it's all over" actually looks like. An outright win for Russia, in the sense of the entire territory of Ukraine being absorbed into Russia, now seems unlikely. But so does a total defeat. I don't think the Western governments that count have the stomach for a long drawn-out war with this level of military support for Ukraine and consequent economic pain inflicted by Russia. Sooner rather than later, there will be pressure for a "settlement" that involves each side conceding something. Perhaps Russia keeping the bits of Donbas it still holds, plus Crimea, but not the bits that Ukraine has taken back. Zelensky will paint it as a repeat of Munich - but the fact is that in 1938, Hitler had not lost troops on anything like the scale that Putin has. (I'm not sure he'd lost any, but the German historians may correct me there.)
So, let's assume that when it's all over, Putin still has a reasonable amount of face, albeit not all of the victory he was hoping for. Lukashenko and Kadyrov should be OK. The morale among Russian conscripts will be somewhat higher when they're asked to help kick the crap out of protestors that don't have any serious hardware to fire back with. And that could also be part of the Ukraine peace deal - OK, in return for me letting Zelensky remain President of what's left of Ukraine, you DO NOT interfere in Belarus. And I'm sure suitable gratitude will be shown to Kadyrov for his support.
The interesting question is not, where does this leave Lukashenko and Kadyrov, but rather, where does it leave Krasnoselsky? At one point, it looked like Russian forces would sweep across the south of Ukraine, taking Odessa and pushing on west to connect with Transnistria. That hasn't happened, making Transnistria's bid to join Luhansk and Donetsk in reuniting with Russia a lot less viable.