Another fish down the drain

[Мастер]

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-scotland-64647907

[Lianachan]

I’ll reply properly later, but this is great news.

[g-one]

Certainly did not see this coming.
What I did see coming was Lianachan's lack of disappointment.
Looking forward to the full comment.

[Richard A]

While not wanting to intrude on, now, two other threads.

I'm looking forward to Lianachan's further comments!

[Мастер]

So who is next? Bass? Trout? Tuna? Cod? Flounder?

[Lianachan]

OK, the main thing is this:

[Richard A]

When it's put that starkly, it's unarguable.

So a key question for any leadership candidate will be not just: "Will you deliver a referendum?" - to which they will all of course answer "Yes", even if they have different ideas as to the form it should take. It will be: "The UK Supreme Court has said you need the UK Government's permission to hold a referendum and said UK Government has made it very clear it won't give it. So how will you deliver a referendum?" That's a question we can debate here on this thread - and Lianachan shared a video of Alex Salmond setting out some ideas - but what matters is what answers the candidates give. Sturgeon repeatedly baulked at holding a referendum - how will they avoid doing the same?

[Arneb]

I'd also like to know,
a) if someone who actually believes actually leaving the UK should actually, in reality, be done, should s/he vote SNP?
b) if not, which party should s/he vote for.

Finally, if you believe the results of the 2014 referendum, and the polls taken since, there has never been, and isn't at the moment, a stable pro-Scoxit majority. How would the Scomain majority be convinced? I take it getting back into the EU would be a strong argument (althought a somewhat distant goal), but what else, beside "A Nation Must Exist Within her Own Country and Be Independent" and "Westminster is Shite"?

[Lianachan]

I’ve not said much about this, as I’m still reading up the hows, the whys, and the d’ya’mind-if-I don’ts about it.

There are 2 obvious ways forward to independence, and to answer Arneb’s question.... well, I suppose that depends on who the new leader will be. But Sturgeon and her husband appear to have that contest nicely wrapped up before it starts.

[Richard A]

Interesting, Arneb, that you see an independent Scotland joining the EU as a distant prospect. Some things which I would have thought would play in its favour - in no particular order.

1. Scotland's politicians - or at least the ones that would represent it - do not have a history of pissing off the EU. Indeed, if there were some in the EU who counted, among the reasons to fast track Scottish accession as sticking it to London, I would neither be surprised nor blame them.
2. The acquis, in Scotland's case, is pretty much still in place. And even in the nightmare scenario of the Brexit Freedoms Bill having become law and taken a hatchet to that, a government of an independent Scotland could quickly reverse it. There'd be some repair work to do, but it wouldn't be starting from scratch in the way that some of the other current applicants had to do.
3. The historic Spanish opposition to Scotland joining has quietly softened. I strongly suspect that, to mix linguistic expressions, Mutti had a wee word following the Spanish financial crisis. "Now of course EU solidarity is important and we will bail you out. But, friends, solidarity cuts both ways. We're making a considerable sacrifice to get you back on your feet. It's not an unreasonable sacrifice for you to make in return to drop your opposition to an independent Scotland joining the EU."
4. Linked to the above, there aren't any Member States that have a cultural problem with Scotland joining - there's no North Macedonia issue.
5. Given what Brexit has done to the pound-euro exchange rate, the currency would likely be less of an issue than it was last time. Though Scotland would be wise to avoid making Montenegro's mistake of unilaterally adopting the euro before joining. That did not go down well. Kosovo of course did the same, but since Cyprus has said, in Orthodox solidarity, that it will not agree to Kosovo joining the EU even if hell freezes over, Prishtina can do what it likes re. currency. Montenegro was another matter. So a Scottish pound pegged to the euro, the Bulgarian approach, seems more sensible.

But it would be good to hear others' views on this.

[Arneb]

Interesting, Arneb, that you see an independent Scotland joining the EU as a distant prospect.Some things which I would have thought would play in its favour - in no particular order.

1. Scotland's politicians - or at least the ones that would represent it - do not have a history of pissing off the EU. Indeed, if there were some in the EU who counted, among the reasons to fast track Scottish accession as sticking it to London, I would neither be surprised nor blame them.
2. The acquis, in Scotland's case, is pretty much still in place. And even in the nightmare scenario of the Brexit Freedoms Bill having become law and taken a hatchet to that, a government of an independent Scotland could quickly reverse it. There'd be some repair work to do, but it wouldn't be starting from scratch in the way that some of the other current applicants had to do.
3. The historic Spanish opposition to Scotland joining has quietly softened. I strongly suspect that, to mix linguistic expressions, Mutti had a wee word following the Spanish financial crisis. "Now of course EU solidarity is important and we will bail you out. But, friends, solidarity cuts both ways. We're making a considerable sacrifice to get you back on your feet. It's not an unreasonable sacrifice for you to make in return to drop your opposition to an independent Scotland joining the EU."
4. Linked to the above, there aren't any Member States that have a cultural problem with Scotland joining - there's no North Macedonia issue.
5. Given what Brexit has done to the pound-euro exchange rate, the currency would likely be less of an issue than it was last time. Though Scotland would be wise to avoid making Montenegro's mistake of unilaterally adopting the euro before joining. That did not go down well. Kosovo of course did the same, but since Cyprus has said, in Orthodox solidarity, that it will not agree to Kosovo joining the EU even if hell freezes over, Prishtina can do what it likes re. currency. Montenegro was another matter. So a Scottish pound pegged to the euro, the Bulgarian approach, seems more sensible.

But it would be good to hear others' views on this.

Distant only in the sense that there would have to be a referendum, then a Scoxit roadmap, then a Scoxit, then and application for accession, then negotiations, then an agreement, then a round of ratifications, all of them successful (remember the Dutch refusing the association agreement with Ukraine just in order to fuck their political class?), and finally, an actual entry into the EU. You know, like, lots of work - but not conceptually distant. I have no disagreement with any of the points you made above. And of course, the fact that the referendum would have to be allowed, set up and, yeah, won, is what makes it somewhat distant to me.