Trump Indicted!

[Lance]

It's about time.

[Arneb]

He's in good shape: Make sure you are indicted on a legally swampy, far-fetched crime which everyone has heard of constantly for thd last few years and is already tired hearing. Do the political-justice fireworks - and you'll have every chance that when the important bits - treason, sedition, trying to falsify an election - come up, people will long have stopped listening.

[Мастер]

Rumour is, he might actually be in good shape. Supposedly, someone gave testimony before the grand jury that was sufficiently damaging to the prosecution’s case, that they had an emergency meeting to decide how to counter it.

If you’re struggling to convince the grand jury to indict, that’s usually not a good sign that you can convince a regular jury to convict.

So we will see how well the prosecution’s case holds up.

But, even if it does, I think Trump will only be the third person to run for US president while in prison. He could still be the first to win. If he does, I expect the prison will work out some sort of day release arrangement.

[tubeswell]

I expect the prison will work out some sort of day release arrangement.

Maybe they'll give him a Presidential Suite inside the jailhouse. Another First.

[Heid the Ba]

Trump Guard Tower.

[Richard A]

The interesting thing about the claim that he should be barred from running for office while facing charges is that the crime of falsifying business records is, in the State of New York, a misdemeanor not a felony. (What that says about the Empire State is another matter!) And as I understand it, only a felony carries with it loss of civil rights - and I guess even then only following conviction. So even if the charges stick, could he in fact be barred? Plus a misdemeanor typically carries a maximum of 1 year in jail, so I guess even if he were convicted, he could be out by January 2025.

Of course one thing in the prosecution's favour is that the jury would be from New York, not exactly a MAGA heartland. Though equally, we can count on the defence team to argue that precisely that means he can't get a fair trial.

As to Arneb's point, maybe the strategy is to start off with the relatively minor state crime and see how they get on before opening the powder for the much more serious federal ones.

[Arneb]

As I understand it, falsifying business records becomes a felony if committed in support of another felony. That second felony being misappropriation of campaign money.

I agree that starting withg the minor points is sort of a strategy. My point is Trump happily uses it to his advantage.

[Lance]

Unfortunately, even a felony conviction would not bar him from running or holding the office.

[g-one]

Unfortunately, even a felony conviction would not bar him from running or holding the office.

All it needs to do is stop him from winning the primary.

[Lance]

Unfortunately, even a felony conviction would not bar him from running or holding the office.

All it needs to do is stop him from winning the primary.

We can only hope.

[Мастер]

Unfortunately, even a felony conviction would not bar him from running or holding the office.

All it needs to do is stop him from winning the primary.

Then he can run in the general as an independent - the “sore loser” option.

[Richard A]

Then he can run in the general as an independent - the “sore loser” option.

Which would have the effect of tearing the GOP apart. I can live with that!

[Мастер]

Then he can run in the general as an independent - the “sore loser” option.

Which would have the effect of tearing the GOP apart. I can live with that!

Well, yes, the last few US elections have been relatively close. It would be tough to win with a split.

[g-one]

This morning I read that they will be closing down some roads for his motorcade to the arraignment on Tuesday. My first reaction was:

Breaking News: Trump to be transported to arraignment in WHITE FORD BRONCO

[Arneb]

Let's see if they thought of that little quirk.

[wring]

Rumour is, he might actually be in good shape. Supposedly, someone gave testimony before the grand jury that was sufficiently damaging to the prosecution’s case, that they had an emergency meeting to decide how to counter it.

that was Trump camp spin. the witness was a lawyer who claimed he'd represented Cohen at one point (he didn't, though he did have a conversation w/him - the same lawyer, I believe, also had a conversation w/Stormy Daniels about representing her, which would preclude him from testifying at a trial w/her as a complaining witness). the prosecutors did, however put on a few more witnesses after that, so their claim bolstered the Trumpian point.

I also regret that Enzo isn't around for this. he would have enjoyed it immensely.

I think that his base will continue to ignore this, but his base is only something like 30% of the republicans. Since all dems hate him, most independants too, and a good number of republicans as well, even if he manages to win a primary, there's an uphill battle for the election itself. Of course, the difficulty tho' is his rabid base will not accept any result that doesn't include Trump as a winner.
How I see it playing out: If Trump loses the primary, his base will sit out the election, dems will win, Trumpians will riot. If Trump wins the primary, his base will vote, but many other republicans will either sit it out or vote anything but Trump, independants and dems will vote dems, dems will win, Trumpians will riot.

[wring]

This morning I read that they will be closing down some roads for his motorcade to the arraignment on Tuesday. My first reaction was:

Breaking News: Trump to be transported to arraignment in WHITE FORD BRONCO

[Richard A]

Well, a complicating factor is that while there remain some rabid die-hards, a number of former Trumpians have jumped ship and are likely to back other right-wing candidates. If Ron De Santis does run, he’s likely to do well. And we’ve yet to see how Nikki Haley will do.

Interesting that Biden seems intent on running again. A smarter move could be to make Kamala Harris his heiress apparent. If Trump doesn’t win the primaries, a fresher conservative could pose a threat that Harris could well be better equipped to deal with than Biden. But I guess we’ll see.

[Мастер]

Well, a complicating factor is that while there remain some rabid die-hards, a number of former Trumpians have jumped ship and are likely to back other right-wing candidates.

It seems to me Trump's hold on the GOP establishment is largely based on fear. Cross him, you end up like Liz Cheney (who is about as conservative as they come).

These things tend to be rather unstable. Ceaușescu seemed as large and in charge as ever, then it was about a week from when the cracks first appeared, to when he went down before a firing squad.

If the defections hit critical mass, the Trump movement may go down like a lead zeppelin.

Whether we like whatever replaces it any better, is another question.

[Lance]

If Ron De Santis does run, he’s likely to do well.

In a head to head poll of republicans, Trump is leading De Santis by 30 points.

[Lance]

Okay, I've decided that Trump is the greatest after all. I mean, he's been impeached more than any other president, he's been arrested more than any other president, and he's made us despised by the rest of the world more than any other president. What could be greater than that?!?

[Мастер]

he's been impeached more than any other president

He's been impeached as much as all the others combined.

[Lance]

he's been impeached more than any other president

He's been impeached as much as all the others combined.

Yes, a mark of greatness!

[g-one]

What could be greater than that?!?

What's the longest sentence ever 'awarded' to a former US President?

[tubeswell]

If Ron De Santis does run, he’s likely to do well.

In a head to head poll of republicans, Trump is leading De Santis by 30 points.

I predict he will be the first US President with a Presidential Suite in prison.