Erdogan Negotiates

[Мастер]

On the eve of the NATO summit in Vilnius, he links Swedish membership in NATO to Turkish membership in the EU.

Will there be a deal? If so, what will he get?

[Arneb]

I think there is a lot of carpet dealer bravado going on here. Of course, he knows that the EU isn't taking orders from NATO, and he knows full bloody fucking well why the EU stopped the negotiations when w finall had enough after '16. He'll tell them what he actually wants when the doors are closed.

[Richard A]

Carpet dealer bravado maybe. But then, again. He might look at Hungary and say, hey, if they can cope with Orban, they can cope with me. OK, Orban didn't jail a similar proportion of his population, but he doesn't have any time for the EU's liberal values either. And he went into the last election with campaign posters that basically said, "Brussels's line on Ukraine is screwing our economy" without any serious consequences.

Of course, there's a major difference. May and then Johnson did an excellent job of taking up the EU's attention during a period that counted, so that the spotlight wasn't on Hungary or Poland so much. And the one time things did look uncomfortable, the UK voted with Hungary - allegedly on the basis of getting favours in return in the Brexit negotiations. Well, readers of this thread will know that I don't believe this was Britain's finest hour any more than the rest of you do. But the point is, that distraction isn't there any more. And Putin has very nicely crystallised the EU's line on autocrats.

But that opens the question, I wonder what Erdogan will ask for behind closed doors. And he may well discover that while Sweden wants to join NATO, NATO is less desperate to have Sweden. In an ideal world, yes, but we don't live in an ideal world - and now that Finland's joined, Putin cannot militarily attack Sweden without going through NATO states first. So his bargaining chips may be losing value.

[Arneb]

All true, but the fact the simple fact remains that the EU won't take on Turkey in the forseeable future, whatever they get offered (and the clearer line re. dictators certainly helps with that). This was either a very public show of carpet dealer bravado or a very public way of saying, 'forget, it, period'.

[Arneb]

Carpet dealer has just announced he'll accept Sweden into the Alliance. Very interested to know what the final price tag was...

[Richard A]

Yes, I wondered that. No doubt we'll find out before too long.

And yes, I think both sides recognise that Turkey joining the EU just isn't going to happen, ever. I'm not sure Erdogan even wants to; his ambitions are to be a regional power in West and Central Asia, not be part of a Europe he despises.

[Arneb]

That's what made me think immediately that his demand was unserious. Erdogan has made it abundeantly clear time and again that he doesn't think the EU is worthy of joining Turkey, and now, of all things, he wanted a body that wasn't NATO to pick up where we left seven years ago? Hardly.

[g-one]

The planes boss, the planes.