RIP Alexei Navalny

[Richard A]

The Russian prison service has issued a statement that Alexei Navalny has died in prison, after feeling unwell and losing consciousness following a walk.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-68316979

I suppose it's slightly more original than "shot trying to escape".

It really is clear; in Russia, opponents to Putin have two options - and only two. Exile - and staying there. Or death. Although I admired the reasons Navalny gave for returning to Russia from Germany, it did seem unwise. Perhaps the initial prison sentence (before it was extended and him transferred to the Arctic) was designed to send a message that Putin later felt was not received.

[Arneb]

There is, of course, always the third option: Exile and death.

My feelings about his return are mostly the same as Richard's, only stronger: I considered him a dead man when he boarded the plane to Moscow. It seemed unthinkable to me that Putin would let someone live who had smeared egg on his face in such a major way by surviving an obvious nerve-gas attacked obviously ordered by Putin. Of course, he served a purpose by appearing in frot of courts, getting sentences and just generally being used to put on the outward face of the rule of law. But when Putin started to face a difficult election, he had outlasted his use.

And all that time, he knew it would happen. He chose to go the road of the martyr instead of filling the role in the West of a respected and sought-after Expert on the Evil Ways of the Putin Regime, with a discreet living place somewhere in Germany or England and a modicum of publicly paid personal security. Rest in peace indeed.

[Мастер]

RIP, Алексей Анатольевич.

[Мастер]

Что делать?

[Arneb]

Indeed. Uncle Volodya is on the offensive im Ukraine, all his opponents are dead or in exile, and one of his cheaper cronies is on a good way to enter the Oral Office again.

Remember that pundit proclaiming the End of History in the 90s, and that piano-playing Foeign Secretary telling anyone who would or would not listen that America had won, deal with it, and we'll just bomb you to Kingdom Come if you disagree?

Maybe we should ask them for advice.

[Мастер]

Remember that pundit proclaiming the End of History in the 90s

History didn’t listen to Fukuyama

[Мастер]

A Russian Lamarque?

I guess we will find out.

[g-one]

A Russian Lamarque?

Obviously he will have seen himself as a 'dead man walking'. If he had any hand in his own demise, he will have been thinking about strategic times to do so.
Not just the 'Lamarque' aspect, but maybe also a time to bolster support from Ukrainian allies that are hedging.

[Arneb]

I must admit this is really getting to me, in a way I haven't felt since the murder Yitzchak Rabin. Even if it was so obvious, so predictable what would happen. Volodya is just applying the burnt Earth principle to his own lifetime. God knows what the next step of the escalation ladder is, but I wouldn't put it beyond him to make the decision that a world without Putin is not a world worthy of living, and push the button.

[Мастер]

A Russian Lamarque?

Obviously he will have seen himself as a 'dead man walking'. If he had any hand in his own demise, he will have been thinking about strategic times to do so.
Not just the 'Lamarque' aspect, but maybe also a time to bolster support from Ukrainian allies that are hedging.

Some protests, but it is far from clear whether it is 1832 all over again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-68316979

[Richard A]

And of course we all know how 1832 ended.

An interesting quasi-obituary from the Spectator - not a magazine I normally read, but it's still interesting.

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the ... 7ac143ac76


I would not describe the folly and wider consequences of Navalny's return to Russia in quite such stark terms - those of his followers who fled abroad are by no means all an irrelevance. Some have built new lives - and who can blame them. But others continue to work in various capacities to oppose Putin from abroad.

Arneb's view of the immediate future seems accurate. The West's appetite for spending money on Ukraine indefinitely seems to be waning. A threat of a complete annihilation of Ukraine might re-activate it, especially if the Don does not become President next year, but Putin's proposal of a settlement, floated explicitly in his interview with Tucker Carlson, could well attract attention. Zelensky will of course oppose it, but as Beneš found out in 1938, he may not be left with a choice. So for reasons Arneb has expressed elsewhere, an all-out European war seems unlikely. But this then raises a question for the medium term. At the moment, Putin is 71 and in robust health. But in 10 years' time, he will be of a similar age to Biden now and even his exercise routine will not keep back the ravages of time forever. Given that he is likely to be ruthless in removing any obvious successors - as Stalin was - and the United Russia Party does not seem to have the same role as the Communist Party did in the post-Stalin era of arranging for succession, one wonders what will happen as he does start to age.

[Lianachan]

Former UK ambassador Craig Murray says:

Alexei Navalny should not have been in jail.
Nor should Julian Assange. Nor Imran Khan.
And which western politicians now waxing about Navalny said anything about Ukraine's murder of Gonzalo Lira?
Or Israel's murder of Abdu Al-Tamimi?
Oppose all or none. The hypocrisy stinks.

[Heid the Ba]

This all may be harder than it looks, nothing seems black and white if you actually think about it.

[Arneb]

On that "exile AND death" theme...

[Arneb]

Former UK ambassador Craig Murray says:

Alexei Navalny should not have been in jail.
Nor should Julian Assange. Nor Imran Khan.
And which western politicians now waxing about Navalny said anything about Ukraine's murder of Gonzalo Lira?
Or Israel's murder of Abdu Al-Tamimi?
Oppose all or none. The hypocrisy stinks.

For all his moral superiority, Mr. Murray shouldn't be too hypocritical himself.

I actually do not have a strong opinion on whether Julian Assange should be in jail or not. However, other than Alexcei Navalny, he is in jail for breaking laws that are very specific and clear, and were in place when he did what he did. I think we all owe him thanks for exposing American war crimes, but he did far more than that, endangering personnel through divulging personal data - something for which he was heavily criticized by journalists. The laws he broke were set up against treason, not political activism, and he knew he was breaking them. Also, there was, IIRC, ample criticism of the way the UK held up a warrant against Assange for some trumped-up Swedish rape charge until the U.S. got its extradition request in order. Or of the way he is treated much worse, apparently, re. his chronic health problems.

I don't know of many people who actually think Imran Khan should actually be in jail for actual corruption, and I don't think there is a lack of publicity of what to me looks like an arrest for political convenience on charges made up on the spot. OTOH, neither do I know if Mr. Khan maybe actually is corrupt. I've heard it on good authority that pretty much everyone in Pakistani politics is. Has to be, apparently.

And I haven't found anything in my admittedly cursory search that applauded Israel for "getting rid" of Abdu-al-Tamimi or Ukraine for the death of Gonzalo Lira. It's not there. As is becoming of a free press, these deaths are researched, publicized, and criticized. Very few people outside the core of the current Israeli government or the settler movement seem to applaud the Israeli courts for pretty much ignoring complaints about in-prison turture on grounds of national security. Regarding the morals of all this, the FSB tried to murder Alexey Navalny by means of a poison gas that can only be prduced, stored, and handled by a big military apparatus. It is inconceivable that this wasn't done by order from the top. After surviving, he was arrested upon his return, charged, sentenced and sent to penal colonies on charges everyone knew to be untrue, and which even the Russian side made no attempt to make appear true. This was a murder ordered by the guy in command, on grounds of power-presevation for that peron alone, and the cases of al-Tamimi and Lira were not. There is good reason to oppose them all, and I think we all do, and there is even better reason to see differences in the seriousness of these crimes.

[Arneb]

Oh, btw. on the point of the third option for people who don't like Putin and act on it being in exile AND dead, here is another case in point.

[Мастер]

US to announce new sanctions this Friday over Navalny death.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/us-an ... 50109.html

Whether the US would actually have preferred Navalny to Putin is essentially irrelevant now.

[Arneb]

Whether the US would actually have preferred Navalny to Putin is essentially irrelevant now.

Isn't that the nice thing about dead heroes: They don't have to stand any reality tests anymore, and you can let them become what you want them to become. The only question is, can you persuade enough people of your interpretation?