Humza Yousaf gone - so what happens now?

[Richard A]

So the SNP are once again to find a new leader - at most 8 and a bit months before the next general election (albeit with longer to go before the next Scottish Parliamentary one). From a distance, it could be said that it's a basic law of politics that if you throw out your coalition partner, you risk bringing down your government. But there may of course be more to it than that.

Heid and Lianachan, who do you think is likely to succeed Humza Yousaf? And how will they deal with the fact that, whoever they are, they'll be leading a minority government? Could this trigger an early Scottish election?

[Lianachan]

Yes, it is extremely likely that there will be an early Scottish election - probably before the UK general election. I have no idea who might be their next leader, and none of the names I've heard so far are even vaguely competent. The Greens want a veto on who they elect too, in exchange for support in the upcoming no confidence vote and other concessions, so we know that it will be someboy useless who will change nothing despite all that's happened. This is Nicola Sturgeon't legacy - a ruined party, a laughing-stock country and no prospect of independence in my lifetime.

[Heid the Ba]

I'm not sure there will be an election, there should be since we're now heading for a second FM since the last one. The choice looks to be between the "safe pair of hands" John Swinney and Kate Forbes, the bigot who lost last time. Neither fill me with enthusiasm and I suspect there is a pretty strong North/South divide in the party.

[Lianachan]

It'll be Swinney, the continuity candidate. If he puts his name forward that is, nobody at all has so far. If it is him it may put off an election, but it would be an abysmal choice and a clear indication that the party have learned nothing whatsoever. Kate Forbes wouldn't be great either, but I can't see her going for it in these circumstances. She's young enough to have a proper crack at it years hence, if SNP survives it's various criminal investigations and crap-shows

[Heid the Ba]

Yes to all that. In the interests of disclosure, I have met Swinney a couple of times and he seems like a decent guy but he isn't the future but probably the best of a bad lot. It is a poisoned chalice just now.

[Lianachan]

It certainly is! I've never met Swinney, or Forbes for that matter. I did have an enjoyable half hour or so with Alex Salmond many years ago (late 90's) in an executive lounge in either Edinburgh or one of the Lunnin airports.

[Heid the Ba]

And it’s Swinney, time will tell whether Forbes was bought off or saw the writing on the wall.

[Richard A]

Or informed by the party what was good for her. But anyway, the continuity candidate it is. I saw reports that he'd been leader of the SNP before and so had a quick look on Wikipedia to see what happened. I see he stepped down after overseeing less than stellar election performances. We'll see if he does any better this time - although he can and no doubt will blame his predecessors if things go badly.

And meanwhile, in England, elections to local authorities are today. Polls close in 50 minutes - I guess we'll start to hear later on how things are looking. They have no immediate bearing on the national landscape, but pundits will inevitably comment on them as a sign of what's to come. Unlike in the US, it's only guesswork when that will be.

[Lianachan]

I see BoJo The Clown's attempt to vote went hilariously and ironically badly!

[Heid the Ba]

Fucking immigrants, they come over here . . .

[Richard A]

I see BoJo The Clown's attempt to vote went hilariously and ironically badly!

Yes, I saw that! Especially ironically badly as it was his own legislation he fell foul of! In which respect it was even better than his attempt at zip lining.

But meanwhile, I hadn't noticed that in amongst the local elections there was another by-election, which the Tories lost handsomely. So more calls for Rishi Sunak to go - but what will probably happen is he'll cling on until January. While Lianachan may be right about the prospects for independence, I really don't think it's Scotland that looks like a laughing stock right now.

[Lianachan]

This is a sad read about the SNP and prospects for independence, but I can't fault a word of it:

Robin McAlpine

[Arneb]

I can't say if I am with you on that - the article doesn't state any facts to support its claim. It just repeats it over and over again. He's bad, he was yesterday's man long ago, he sees his only task in putting his people into jobs, he doesn't really want independence, or risk anything for it, he's bad, and on to the next round. Very hard to assess, for an outsider, what one could fault with the article.

[Heid the Ba]

I'm sure the BBC will announce that Swinney becoming leader unopposed was due to a unified party and is good for the Scottish parliament as there is continuity and no break in government. Oh wait: "coronation", "stitch up" etc.

[Richard A]

Well, at least they're using the term "coronation" now of a one-horse leadership contest of any party. And being London-based, their interest has focused back on the hammering of the Conservatives in the local elections - plus one more by-election - and different Tories' responses to that.

And since I don't see Rishi Sunak having more guts than John Major, I would say that January 2025 as the date for the general election is pretty much assured.

In the meantime, few better assessments of Sunak than that of, probably, the most famous Scot in British politics right now. There are certainly issues with George on other grounds, but this interview is still a joy to watch.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7p7CAyxHgg

[Heid the Ba]

Co-incidentaly at the weekend I spoke to a senior lawyer in the Scottish government and a senior civil servant at parliament and they both had been looking forward to a quiet couple of weeks if it had all kicked off.