N. Korea threatens war...

[Dragon Star]

N. Korea threatens war if U.S. pressure persists, saying additional sanctions imposed on it would be considered an act of war.

Sooo...what do we do? Are we to take him seriously on this allegation and impose the sanctions anyways, possibly opening war... or let him have his way...continuing to in-rich uranium and possibly letting him open up the largest black market created weapon?

[The Beer Slayer]

Cut all aid and let the country implode. It's going to happen eventually and the humanitarian aid doesn't get to the people anyway, most of it goes to feed their military.

[Dragon Star]

And when they start war?

[Bandit]

This isn't new, North Korea has always stated that sanctions (among other things) would be considered an act of war but I don't see them starting something they couldn't finish, especially when any really robust sanctions will likely be watered down due to Russian/Chinese opposition.

What would I do? I'd let the North Koreans have their nukes. I'm against any country dictating who is "allowed" to be a nuclear power but, in the case of North Korea, I would add this caveat - any exportation of their nuclear weapon material/expertise would be considered an act of war. Unlike the frequent saber-rattling rhetoric that comes from North Korea any time they don't like something, I'd be as serious as a heart attack -- if Pyongyang called my bluff, I'd nuke them back to the Stone Age.

[Dragon Star]

So how do you suppose we keep track of their black market?

[Bandit]

So how do you suppose we keep track of their black market?

No need for an ambiguous "Black Market" here. It all boils down to this: just how could/would North Korea funnel their nuclear technology to 'Joe Bad Guy' in the first place? There's only 3 ways to get nukes out of country and I'd rule out over-land through China right about now. The two remaining options would be simple to interdict.

BTW, your OP leaves out the most likely scenario to this latest media-hyped "crisis" - nothing really happening. I say North Korea won't wage war on anybody, no one will attack N Korea, and any sanctions will be like all UN sanctions - the ineffectual byproduct of mucho hot air.

What's your two cents here Dragon Star?

[Superluminal]

At some point the spread of nuclear weapons has to be stopped. If its not its just a matter of time before one finds it's way into the hands of a terrorist group.

There are all sorts of military options besides full scale war. Surgical strikes, massive bombing, cruise missile strikes or special forces operations. Whatever is used, it's objective should be to destroy the production facilities and set back any nuke program.

Our ground forces may be spread pretty thin, but our AF, particularly our strategic bombers are barely being used in the current conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan.

The danger with North Korea is that even a small scale surgical strike, and they may retaliate with a full scale invasion of the south.

[Dragon Star]

So how do you suppose we keep track of their black market?

No need for an ambiguous "Black Market" here. It all boils down to this: just how could/would North Korea funnel their nuclear technology to 'Joe Bad Guy' in the first place? There's only 3 ways to get nukes out of country and I'd rule out over-land through China right about now. The two remaining options would be simple to interdict.

I fear you underestimate the power of money.

BTW, your OP leaves out the most likely scenario to this latest media-hyped "crisis" - nothing really happening. I say North Korea won't wage war on anybody, no one will attack N Korea, and any sanctions will be like all UN sanctions - the ineffectual byproduct of mucho hot air.

What's your two cents here Dragon Star?

What's this? Someone asking my opinion? Well, my .02 often when counted equals about .005 cents. But here goes...

Frankly, I think this guy is a nutter. Probably very unpredictable as to what he will and will not do. Yes, media is playing devils advocate, but he is kind-of a scary dude no doubt.

I don't know how far we prepared to go as far as sanctions with the UN, but I do think that if they push this guy too hard, he will fight it out...I mean really, what does he have to lose? The sanctions will limit his power to nothing and his country is held together by Elmer's glue and a few roles of duct-tape as it is.

I think he wants a reason to start trouble, otherwise he would tuck his tail and move on instead of having conflicts with...well...the world.

[Enzo]

It's the full two cents, DS, but it is only Canadian money.

[Heid the Ba]

[pedant mode] Are we not still at war with North Korea? Is the present state not just a ceasefire? Or am I out of date? [/pedant mode]

[Dragon Star]

It's the full two cents, DS, but it is only Canadian money.

[The Beer Slayer]

I doubt he would start a war. He has no allies. His equipment is antiquated, the central government is slowly losing control of its regional party apparatchiks. His army won't fight effectively or get very far with a crumbling economy and a starving population. LEt's take this corpse off life support.

[Мастер]

I doubt he would start a war. He has no allies. His equipment is antiquated, the central government is slowly losing control of its regional party apparatchiks. His army won't fight effectively or get very far with a crumbling economy and a starving population. LEt's take this corpse off life support.

Methinks it is China who needs to do such a thing. . .

[Dragon Star]

I doubt he would start a war. He has no allies. His equipment is antiquated, the central government is slowly losing control of its regional party apparatchiks. His army won't fight effectively or get very far with a crumbling economy and a starving population. LEt's take this corpse off life support.

Precisely, so what does he have to lose?

[Superluminal]

IRU's resident Scot asked

Are we still not at war with North Korea? Is the present state not just a ceasefire? Or am I out of date?

Your very much up to date, Korea is home of the longest cease fire in history.

[Lonewulf]

Precisely, so what does he have to lose?

There's a lot more factors other than "he has nothing to lose" for him to amass a nuclear strike...

For one, he has to have sufficient missiles. I am not sure how many nuclear missiles he has.

Second, he has to be able to amass those nuclear missiles before they can be taken out; I'm not sure if he has the tech to do that, but there are defences.

Third, he needs a target. What'll he do? Target the U.S.? I'm sorry to burst the bubble, but America isn't the only problem Kim Jong Il has; he also has South Korea (a more likely target, honestly) and China to worry about. However, if he attacks South Korea, then that's it; game over for Kim.

See, this is like a game of chess, where the king is only two moves away from a checkmate. He may have a queen that can wreak havoc on a few chess pieces, but the choices are too many...

Either way, cutting off aid to him might provoke him, but it might not. It would certainly set a precedent; if more countries refuse aid, then what will Kim do? Attack them all? Does he even have the resouces for that?

But here's the thing: This is international politics. I don't think any of us really have the "whole" picture, just bits and pieces. I just don't overestimate Kim Jong Il (and that's even talking as someone that's lived in South Korea for several years).

Here's an interesting question: When we thought that Saddam had WMDs, and Saddam had "nothing to lose" when we attacked, we weren't afraid of a nuclear strike. But we're afraid of going into North Korea... why? Because they have WMDs?

I'm thinking that there are other reasons. ;) (For one, we can't spread our resources too thin, and for two, we really *cannot* police the world, for political and resource reasons)

[Enzo]

Rationalistic arguments as to what Kim Jong Il will do are based upon his being rational too. It assumes he will carefully weigh all the pros and cons, costs and benefits. It assumes he has a practical goal in mind. It assumes he is of sound mind. I am not ready to concede that in his case that those conditions are the case.

A rationalistic analysis of suicide bombing would preclude the activity, yet day after day, people blow themselves up. Kim may find not backing down worth dying for, or making the ultimate "up yours" statement to the USA worth the price. He may believe we would never retaliate in deadly fashion. He may believe that a couple well placed nukes to take out the American military bases in SK would leave him in charge. Sort of a Pearl Harbor strategy. He may be so full of himself he is not thinking things through the way you and I might.

I am not saying these things are the case, nor that if they are the case that he is correct in his assumptions. But I sure wouldn't rule them out.

I do assume his advisors are more into telling him what he wants to hear rather than the honest truth. He may genuinely believe he can sting us hard enough we would not want a scrap. I don't doubt he knows we could erase his country from the face of the earth a half hour after deciding to do so. But he might also think we wouldn't dare since the fallout - actual or political - would rain down on CHina, whom he would think we wouldn't want a scrap with. I sure don't want war with China. He might also think about our ally SOuth Korea and decide that the fallout over them would be something we wouldn't do to them.

In fact that is a good question: If he sailed a nuclear bomb into a major SK port and set it off, what would we do? Total invasion? Blanket nuclear bombing? No invite to the Xmas party? Would we destroy NK and all the folks in it over this mad man. I don't know what we would do, and I'd hate to have to decide. WHat does Kim think we would do?

[Мастер]

Rationalistic arguments as to what Kim Jong Il will do are based upon his being rational too. It assumes he will carefully weigh all the pros and cons, costs and benefits. It assumes he has a practical goal in mind. It assumes he is of sound mind. I am not ready to concede that in his case that those conditions are the case.

I have heard it said that he strikes people as pretty calm and calculating, not as some raving ideologue. This is, of course, heresay. . .

In fact that is a good question: If he sailed a nuclear bomb into a major SK port and set it off, what would we do? Total invasion? Blanket nuclear bombing? No invite to the Xmas party? Would we destroy NK and all the folks in it over this mad man. I don't know what we would do, and I'd hate to have to decide. WHat does Kim think we would do?

It seems to me that if the major SK port were Seoul, he would be rather like the hostage-taker who has just killed his only hostage. . .

[Dragon Star]

I have heard it said that he strikes people as pretty calm and calculating, not as some raving ideologue.

The brilliant are often the most insane in their own particular ways.

[Lonewulf]

I have heard it said that he strikes people as pretty calm and calculating, not as some raving ideologue.

The brilliant are often the most insane in their own particular ways.

But we can't rush into assumptions here. You can call him insane all you want... I still have yet to see evidence that he actually is "insane", or that he's actually willing to carry through with warfare.

What evidence is there that he's insane? Because he's a dictator of a small country? Because we don't like him?

[Dragon Star]

Well, perhaps insane was a strong word. I mean crazy. Although he is a very smart man, I consider anyone that sticks a cold finger up the US's ass pretty crazy...and before you ask, yes, I would say the same thing if I was not an American.

(Note: that by crazy I mean sporadic and unpredictable for the enemy...us.)

This is interesting...

http://www.buffalonews.com/editorial/20061011/1043553.asp

[The Beer Slayer]

Precisely, so what does he have to lose?

His life, which will end one way or another after he orders a military invasion of the South.

[Bandit]

So how do you suppose we keep track of their black market?

No need for an ambiguous "Black Market" here. It all boils down to this: just how could/would North Korea funnel their nuclear technology to 'Joe Bad Guy' in the first place? There's only 3 ways to get nukes out of country and I'd rule out over-land through China right about now. The two remaining options would be simple to interdict.

I fear you underestimate the power of money.

Not at all. I just don't think you'll find too many corrupt and stupid Chinese border guards right about now. There's no amount of $$$ worth being exposed as a party to N Korean nuclear smuggling and the Chinese know that such collusion would be revealed eventually.

What's this? Someone asking my opinion? Well, my .02 often when counted equals about .005 cents. But here goes...

Frankly, I think this guy is a nutter. Probably very unpredictable as to what he will and will not do. Yes, media is playing devils advocate, but he is kind-of a scary dude no doubt.

I don't know how far we prepared to go as far as sanctions with the UN, but I do think that if they push this guy too hard, he will fight it out...I mean really, what does he have to lose? The sanctions will limit his power to nothing and his country is held together by Elmer's glue and a few roles of duct-tape as it is.

I think he wants a reason to start trouble, otherwise he would tuck his tail and move on instead of having conflicts with...well...the world.

I think you'll find the sanctions aren't as crippling as to "limit his [Kim's] power to nothing" but all-in-all not a bad couple of pennies Dragon Star.

[Superluminal]

I fear that sanctions will only hurt the average North Korean, and they are suffering enough as it is.

[Lance]

I think we should have released a statement a few days after their nuke test stating unequivocally that it was not a nuke, just a great deal of conventional explosives, and made them a laughing stock. That would have either shut them up (unlikely) or forced their hand to do something even more stupid and let China off the hook as their only ally. Then the entire world could take a firmer stand against them and do what ever is necessary to remove Kim Jong NutSack from power.