No need for an ambiguous "Black Market" here. It all boils down to this: just how could/would North Korea funnel their nuclear technology to 'Joe Bad Guy' in the first place? There's only 3 ways to get nukes out of country and I'd rule out over-land through China right about now. The two remaining options would be simple to interdict.Dragon Star wrote:So how do you suppose we keep track of their black market?
Bandit wrote:No need for an ambiguous "Black Market" here. It all boils down to this: just how could/would North Korea funnel their nuclear technology to 'Joe Bad Guy' in the first place? There's only 3 ways to get nukes out of country and I'd rule out over-land through China right about now. The two remaining options would be simple to interdict.Dragon Star wrote:So how do you suppose we keep track of their black market?
BTW, your OP leaves out the most likely scenario to this latest media-hyped "crisis" - nothing really happening. I say North Korea won't wage war on anybody, no one will attack N Korea, and any sanctions will be like all UN sanctions - the ineffectual byproduct of mucho hot air.
What's your two cents here Dragon Star?
Cruel Redneck wrote:I doubt he would start a war. He has no allies. His equipment is antiquated, the central government is slowly losing control of its regional party apparatchiks. His army won't fight effectively or get very far with a crumbling economy and a starving population. LEt's take this corpse off life support.
Cruel Redneck wrote:I doubt he would start a war. He has no allies. His equipment is antiquated, the central government is slowly losing control of its regional party apparatchiks. His army won't fight effectively or get very far with a crumbling economy and a starving population. LEt's take this corpse off life support.
Are we still not at war with North Korea? Is the present state not just a ceasefire? Or am I out of date?
Dragon Star wrote:Precisely, so what does he have to lose?
Enzo wrote:Rationalistic arguments as to what Kim Jong Il will do are based upon his being rational too. It assumes he will carefully weigh all the pros and cons, costs and benefits. It assumes he has a practical goal in mind. It assumes he is of sound mind. I am not ready to concede that in his case that those conditions are the case.
Enzo wrote:In fact that is a good question: If he sailed a nuclear bomb into a major SK port and set it off, what would we do? Total invasion? Blanket nuclear bombing? No invite to the Xmas party? Would we destroy NK and all the folks in it over this mad man. I don't know what we would do, and I'd hate to have to decide. WHat does Kim think we would do?
Khrushchev's Other Shoe wrote:I have heard it said that he strikes people as pretty calm and calculating, not as some raving ideologue.
Dragon Star wrote:Khrushchev's Other Shoe wrote:I have heard it said that he strikes people as pretty calm and calculating, not as some raving ideologue.
The brilliant are often the most insane in their own particular ways.
Precisely, so what does he have to lose?
Not at all. I just don't think you'll find too many corrupt and stupid Chinese border guards right about now. There's no amount of $$$ worth being exposed as a party to N Korean nuclear smuggling and the Chinese know that such collusion would be revealed eventually.Dragon Star wrote:Bandit wrote:No need for an ambiguous "Black Market" here. It all boils down to this: just how could/would North Korea funnel their nuclear technology to 'Joe Bad Guy' in the first place? There's only 3 ways to get nukes out of country and I'd rule out over-land through China right about now. The two remaining options would be simple to interdict.Dragon Star wrote:So how do you suppose we keep track of their black market?
I fear you underestimate the power of money.
I think you'll find the sanctions aren't as crippling as to "limit his [Kim's] power to nothing" but all-in-all not a bad couple of pennies Dragon Star.What's this? Someone asking my opinion? Well, my .02 often when counted equals about .005 cents. But here goes...
Frankly, I think this guy is a nutter. Probably very unpredictable as to what he will and will not do. Yes, media is playing devils advocate, but he is kind-of a scary dude no doubt.
I don't know how far we prepared to go as far as sanctions with the UN, but I do think that if they push this guy too hard, he will fight it out...I mean really, what does he have to lose? The sanctions will limit his power to nothing and his country is held together by Elmer's glue and a few roles of duct-tape as it is.
I think he wants a reason to start trouble, otherwise he would tuck his tail and move on instead of having conflicts with...well...the world.
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