Enzo wrote:I am not sure how we can "stabilize" Iraq in any meaningful, long term way. We can Pax Romana them to death.
My bold.train teachers in an approved curriculum, mandate attendance for all children, and indoctrinate the core values of our "new Iraq".
We have to allow enough time to make it clear that the new government is serious, and permanent.
Heid the Ba' wrote:Interesting idea pmcolt, you'll force them to have the type of free democracy you want them to have.
I'm curious what you want those core values to be.
Would this be an elected permanent government? There have been elections in Iraq, the fact that you don't like those elected does not negate the elections.
Any plan which gives self determination to the Iraqis will probably lead to a de jure rather than de facto Kurdish state in the north, a Sunni state and a Shia state which may or may not link up with Iran.
Any plan which does not include self determination simply replaces one tyrant with another.
Enzo wrote:Here, the system is what is dear to us. Other than a few ranting morons, if your boy loses the election, no one seriously thinks shooting him to install your own is a good idea.
Heid the Ba' wrote:Would it not be simpler to let Iraq split along ethinc/religious lines and form three stable, internally monolithic (is this the correct word?) states. This would remove much of the tension from what you admit is a man made country.
(Sorry if I sound cranky, late night, early start etc.)
pmcolt wrote:Enzo wrote:I am not sure how we can "stabilize" Iraq in any meaningful, long term way. We can Pax Romana them to death.
I know how it could be done, but it's a solution and a commitment that we're not prepared to undertake. We'd do some actual nationbuilding, following the European model for the rise of the early nation-states.
Set up a strong central government, controlled in large part by us. Build state-run schools, train teachers in an approved curriculum, mandate attendance for all children, and indoctrinate the core values of our "new Iraq".
Rebuild infrastructure and services; police, fire, hospitals, prisons, etc. Promote all of these new and rebuilt services on local and national media as part of a "new Iraq" advertising campaign.
Expect to be heavily involved in the country, with troop levels much higher than presently, for at least fifteen years or twenty years, probably longer. Expect also to take a lot of criticism for jailing clerics who advocate violence or attempt to undercut the government.
The long timescale is politically untenable, but also unavoidable. We have to allow enough time to make it clear that the new government is serious, and permanent. We have to allow enough time for the insurgency to either die down or die of attrition. Most of all, we have to allow enough time for the Iraqi children, indoctrinated with the new, stable democratic values, to grow up. When enough of them are old enough to take positions of power, we can hand the government back over to them.
Of course, we'd have horrible combat losses, public outcry over heavy-handedness, backlash from the Middle East over the plan, huge monetary investments with little or no short-term payback, and inevitable political shifts over that timescale, so that plan is pretty much unworkable.
Heid the Ba' wrote:Would it not be simpler to let Iraq split along ethinc/religious lines and form three stable, internally monolithic (is this the correct word?) states. This would remove much of the tension from what you admit is a man made country.
(Sorry if I sound cranky, late night, early start etc.)
pmcolt wrote:I can't support a 5-year timetable.
In the November 2000 election, it sure seemed to me love of the system was in short supply, whereas love of winning was quite abundant.
Enzo wrote:the concept of everyone contributing as he is able and taking as he needs is not a horrid concept.
pmcolt wrote: but we would end up with a Shi'a state gravitating towards Iran, and an oil-poor Sunni state possibly leaning toward Saudi Arabia.
Heid the Ba' wrote:I'm still unclear on your views on self determination; if it can be shown that a minority of Iraqis (and not a majority of the puppet government) want US help, is that not the time to leave regardless of timescale or the state of the country?
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