On to the Scottish referendum

[Arneb]

So the system for state elections is similar, at least, to the federal then?

Mostly yes. The difference in the federation being, if you are below the magical 5 %, you need to win three constituencies in order to be given a group of deputies according to your (lower) voter percentage. Otherwise, the one or two deputies are just deputies, without the procedural rights given to groups and factions. On the federal level, this happend to the postcommunists once in 94s. Four heavily (post)communist consituencies in the East of Berlin saved the day for the PDS (Party of Democratic Socialism) when they only reached 4,4 percentage points nationwide.

[MM_Dandy]

This probably could've gone in one of the F'ing threads, but I'll put it here, anyway.

CNN says that the US is nervous about a possible Scottish secession. I was wondering why we were all quaking in our boots.

Among the cited reasons for our supposed nervousness?

The complicating factor in this potential split? One side has a nuclear arsenal. Who gets custody of that?

Are we expecting an independent Scotland to sell those nukes to the highest bidder or something?

Paraphrased actually: Scotland would not automatically be a member of NATO

Um - Oh, No! Whatever shall we do without them?

Another paraphrase: Wall Street will fall into chaos because [apparently] no-one will know how to convert to and from whatever currency is adopted by an independent Scotland.

Well, I can believe that. Wall Street is just awful with numbers. On a more serious note, this smacks a bit of the paranoia we saw leading up to the year 2000. "All the banks are going to close!" "Markets will collapse!" "The power grid will fail!"

a successful independence movement in Scotland could spark further movements in the rest of Europe. Potential breakaway regions in Spain and Belgium are already eyeing the Scottish vote carefully.

Well, we certainly wouldn't want things to get dicey in Spain...oh, wait.

[Lianachan]

The complicating factor in this potential split? One side has a nuclear arsenal. Who gets custody of that?

Are we expecting an independent Scotland to sell those nukes to the highest bidder or something?

They're owned by the US anyway, and leased by UK government. After independence, they'd be relocated from Scotland to a base somewhere in the fUK - somewhere far from London, I bet.

Paraphrased actually: Scotland would not automatically be a member of NATO

Um - Oh, No! Whatever shall we do without them?

Scotland occupies a very strategic location in the north Atlantic, and almost everybody agrees that it will be admitted to NATO. Some people have claimed that without nuclear weapons, Scotland won't be allowed in - which doesn't really make sense given that the majority of NATO members don't have them.

Another paraphrase: Wall Street will fall into chaos because [apparently] no-one will know how to convert to and from whatever currency is adopted by an independent Scotland.

Well, I can believe that. Wall Street is just awful with numbers. On a more serious note, this smacks a bit of the paranoia we saw leading up to the year 2000. "All the banks are going to close!" "Markets will collapse!" "The power grid will fail!"

Indeed. Quite apart from Scotland's great historic contribution to economics, we'd continue to use the pound anyway. Within a currency union, almost certainly. If the fUK wishes to bite off it's nose to spite it's face and not enter such a union, which will cost businesses there hundreds of millions of pounds, some economists have argued that that would be a much better solution for Scotland anyway. In time, I'm sure we'd have our own currency. The pound needs the trillions of Scottish oil reserves to shore itself up anyway.

a successful independence movement in Scotland could spark further movements in the rest of Europe. Potential breakaway regions in Spain and Belgium are already eyeing the Scottish vote carefully.

Well, we certainly wouldn't want things to get dicey in Spain...oh, wait.

Indeed. Plus, isn't democracy supposed to be a good thing? Haven't the US and UK invaded foreign countries, claiming to be bringing that benefit to the populations there? Pah.

[Lianachan]

David Cameron To Scottish People: "I'll kill myself if you leave"

Good riddance, I say.

[Мастер]

Are we expecting an independent Scotland to sell those nukes to the highest bidder or something?

In the last break-up of a nuclear-armed state, one of the smaller subunits (Ukraine) returned the nuclear weapons to the larger subunit (Russia), in an agreement which also guaranteed Ukraine's territorial integrity.

Maybe they should have kept the nukes.

Um - Oh, No! Whatever shall we do without them?

There are plenty of western European countries which aren't in NATO.

Well, I can believe that. Wall Street is just awful with numbers. On a more serious note, this smacks a bit of the paranoia we saw leading up to the year 2000. "All the banks are going to close!" "Markets will collapse!" "The power grid will fail!"

All of those things might happen, whether or not Scotland becomes independent!

Well, we certainly wouldn't want things to get dicey in Spain...oh, wait.

What out for ETA!

Indeed. Quite apart from Scotland's great historic contribution to economics, we'd continue to use the pound anyway. Within a currency union, almost certainly. If the fUK wishes to bite off it's nose to spite it's face and not enter such a union, which will cost businesses there hundreds of millions of pounds, some economists have argued that that would be a much better solution for Scotland anyway. In time, I'm sure we'd have our own currency.

The question I have is whether the EU (assuming Scotland will rejoin) would force adoption of the Euro.

Indeed. Plus, isn't democracy supposed to be a good thing? Haven't the US and UK invaded foreign countries, claiming to be bringing that benefit to the populations there? Pah.

Recall the Kosovo independence project. And the whole democracy-in-Iraq project seems to be going quite well.

[Lianachan]

The question I have is whether the EU (assuming Scotland will rejoin) would force adoption of the Euro.

In order to be considered for membership of the Eurozone, countries need to choose to include their currency in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II and there are no plans for Scotland to do this. No country can be forced to join the Euro against its will.

Indeed. Plus, isn't democracy supposed to be a good thing? Haven't the US and UK invaded foreign countries, claiming to be bringing that benefit to the populations there? Pah.

Recall the Kosovo independence project. And the whole democracy-in-Iraq project seems to be going quite well.

You almost make it sound like you think that installing democracy was the reason for the invasion(s) of Iraq! You can't install democracy at gunpoint, that's kind of a contradiction in terms, and western democracy is culturally strange there anyway.

[Мастер]

In order to be considered for membership of the Eurozone, countries need to choose to include their currency in the Exchange Rate Mechanism II and there are no plans for Scotland to do this. No country can be forced to join the Euro against its will.

That is Sweden's position, and the EU seems not to be pressing the issue. Are they going to let Scotland do the same thing? Perhaps we will find out.

You almost make it sound like you think that installing democracy was the reason for the invasion(s) of Iraq! You can't install democracy at gunpoint, that's kind of a contradiction in terms, and western democracy is culturally strange there anyway.

I would suggest rereading the comment and asking whether you are interpreting it in the right way.

[Lianachan]

It was merely a flippant aside.

[Мастер]

So, when do we know the results?

[Мастер]

BTW, today is 100 years since the Irish Home Rule bill passed. Hopefully what happened to Ireland after that, will not happen to Scotland now.

[Lianachan]

It took Ireland a long time to get independence, and they had to resort to armed conflict in the end of course. That's one of the best things about what's happened in Scotland - it's a shining example of a genuine grass roots movement, and the power of people and social media in the face of unanimous opposition from the media, the BBC and the British establishment.

Results should be known by the small hours of the morning, so you (and my Singapore living brother) will know before me!

[Lance]

It looks like high voter turnout in a race too close to call. I think a 51%/49% vote either way will be problematic for a long time to come. Too bad it can't be a decisive choice one way or the other.

[Lianachan]

50.01% yes will do for me!

[Lianachan]

Well, THIS is just trends in the twittersphere, but it's still encouraging.

[Мастер]

You should have had the referendum in the Republic of Ireland instead. They're all "yes" there.

[MM_Dandy]

It looks like high voter turnout in a race too close to call. I think a 51%/49% vote either way will be problematic for a long time to come. Too bad it can't be a decisive choice one way or the other.

Perhaps they're a better people than us, but in my community, an initiative to fund a new pool has been narrowly defeated twice, leading to a bit of sour grapes situation between the opposing sides. The opposition wanted funding for a new senior citizen center, and now likely will not be able to generate enough support for quite some time.

[tubeswell]

Well, THIS is just trends in the twittersphere, but it's still encouraging.

Pretty clear correlation

[Lance]

I hope all those London voters don't screw it up for you all.

[MM_Dandy]

Losing Scotland will improve the UK's weather.

[Мастер]

No doubt. But, they're saying Aberdeen won't report in until 6 AM.

[tubeswell]

Check out Charlie's view on twitter.

[MM_Dandy]

Clackmannanshire reports are in - and the news doesn't appear to be good. Here's to hoping that some of the No strongholds have some unexpected results.

[Lianachan]

Early days, though I'm still confident that no will win overall due to electoral fraud - been saying that since day one. If it's a no, I'm going to be pretty devastated,

[Enzo]

I am to believe that Charles wrote those twits himself?

[Arneb]

According to FAZ, all regions have reported except Highlands, which won't swing it. After the "almost there" of the last days, 55/45 to me sounds like a pretty resounding No.

It may be a long shot, but if the UK is to make good on her promise to leave the EU, you Scots will probably get another go at it.