Brexit Delay

[Lianachan]

And Bonnie Emmanuel is always threatening to. But nobody will, I'll bet a bottle of good Champagne. To be the asshole who pushed 60 million people over the cliff is an ignominy they'll happily leave with Bojo the Clown. All the more since he is more than prepared to accept the honour.

One week prorogation to come, see you back on Oct 14 for Wee Lizzy's Speech. If I were her, I'd show up in that Forza EU, Fuck You Tories dress she wore to the occasion last time. Maybe hum the Ode to Joy audibly and have a puff of Gauloise sans filtre in the dressing room.

Wear a dress twice? How vulgar.

I’ll pass on that bottle of champagne bet....

[Мастер]

And over here, we’re only dreaming of the day that ASEAN resembles the EU . . .

[MM_Dandy]

Who knows how filtered the news is by the time it gets to me, but so far what I've seen and read is that if the EU has reason to believe that the UK can make progress on the terms in the meantime, that they would be likely to grant an extension. I suppose it'll come down to how the EU reads the situation in the UK. How likely is it that Boris will be replaced? And if so, will his replacement be more likely to compromise with the EU? How likely is it that there will be a referendum on the terms? How likely is it that Parliament and the Government will attempt to comply with the results of that referendum?

From all that I can tell from here is that all of those things seem more likely than not, provided that there is an extension. On the other hand, that's an awful lot of 'likely's and there's a lot of people that have lost their patience with the whole ordeal.

[Мастер]

There is no parliamentary majority for - well, anything. Including nothing.

There is no parliamentary majority for leaving the EU with no deal.

There is no parliamentary majority for staying in the EU.

There is no parliamentary majority for leaving the EU with Theresa May’s deal.

There might be a parliamentary majority for leaving the EU with an alternate deal, that the EU is not willing to offer.

[Arneb]

Quite. And it's been that way since IM Mai brought home her deal from across the channel. But since, as Lianachan put it, No Deal is the table, the whole setup is sloooooowly approaching the cliff and will give a truly majestic impression falling off it. Krimskoe, Sonoma Sparkling and Ningxia Brut all round.

In the UK 'tween Oct 12 and 19 with the missus and the bairns, visiting Richard_A and Lunnin innit. Taking a few farewll pictures and generally having bouts of nostalgia for the days when it was all just no problem at all. Gonna visit Scotland when you join the EU, promise.

[Blue Monster 65]

Had a question in our chat system at work from a potential customer in the UK, wanting to know if Brexit would mess up shipping to her. Had to tell her we have no idea. She didn’t care for that answer, but agreed that neither did she or anyone else.

[Heid the Ba]

Unless the US was ever in the EU then Brexit will make no difference in the short term. Of course Trump has promised us. . . Actually I can’t take that seriously.

[Мастер]

Unless the US was ever in the EU then Brexit will make no difference in the short term. Of course Trump has promised us. . . Actually I can’t take that seriously.

Well, I don't know. If a shipping firm has their European hub somewhere in the EU-27, I could imagine it would.

[Heid the Ba]

If it is simply entrepôt then I don’t think it matters.

[Arneb]

It might also be posible that UK customs are so inundated with business from the former EU partners that trade from other countries is affected, too.

BTW, BoJo has now said publicly (before a Scottish court) that he will ask for a Brexit date extension and that he won't (in a telephone coal with Pres. Macron). I think the second answer was the honest one.

[Мастер]

BTW, BoJo has now said publicly (before a Scottish court) that he will ask for a Brexit date extension and that he won't (in a telephone coal with Pres. Macron). I think the second answer was the honest one.

Well, there is supposed to be a border in Ireland that is both open and closed, so I don't see why Boris Johnson can't both ask and not ask for an extension.

[Heid the Ba]

The Scottish court case involves the question of what penalties Boris will face if he doesn't comply with the Benn Act. So far we have perjury since the statement was made in a written submission and is quite unequivocal.

[Мастер]

What is the Independencometer reading these days?

[Arneb]

The Scottish court case involves the question of what penalties Boris will face if he doesn't comply with the Benn Act. So far we have perjury since the statement was made in a written submission and is quite unequivocal.

Sure, but who wil bother with legal technicalities when it's BoJo and His Hard Brexit That The People Really Want (T.M.).

[Heid the Ba]

One of the things the court can do if Boris won't try to extend the Article 50 notice is to send a letter themselves, in response to their own order. And if it gets to that stage we'll be in the streets.

[Heid the Ba]

What is the Independencometer reading these days?

Even The Scotsman newspaper is saying there is a majority for it, but who knows.

[tubeswell]

Quite. And it's been that way since IM Mai brought home her deal from across the channel. But since, as Lianachan put it, No Deal is the table, the whole setup is sloooooowly approaching the cliff and will give a truly majestic impression falling off it. Krimskoe, Sonoma Sparkling and Ningxia Brut all round.

In the UK 'tween Oct 12 and 19 with the missus and the bairns, visiting Richard_A and Lunnin innit. Taking a few farewll pictures and generally having bouts of nostalgia for the days when it was all just no problem at all. Gonna visit Scotland when you join the EU, promise.

[Heid the Ba]

Be careful out there among the English.

[Arneb]

I always am. And Richard_A has our back.

[Heid the Ba]

The Court of Session are hearing a petition that the Brexit deal as written is illegal, which it plainly is. Last year the Brexit hardliners prodded on by Rees-Mogg forced through a bill which states that Norn Iron can't be taxed differently from the rest of the UK. This was a poison pill to try and ensure a No Deal Brexit. It is now coming back to haunt them. Parliament can of course repeal the act but it is one more hoop for BoJo to jump through.

[Arneb]

You think it is illegal precisely because of that law, or is there something else that makes it illegal, too?

I discussed the deal a bit with Richard_A yesterday on the ride back from Lunnin innit. I asked for the chances the deal has on Saturday given that Bojo is 10 (DUP)+21(ex-Tories that he himself thrww out)+ c. 30 (arch-Brexiteers who will vote with the DUP instead of the Prime Minister they voted for) votes short of a majority. He made the point that in addition to the hard-line Brexit camp, quite a few MPs would now rather kill the deal, force BoJo (or his replacement) into submission by forcing him to ask for an extension and try to kill Brexit alltogether by legislating a new referendum.

What are your bets, and what are your preferences?

[Heid the Ba]

Illegal only because of that law.

There are Labour Leave MPs saying they will vote for it, so I think it will be a lot closer than 30.

[Arneb]

I think Oliver Letwin is now the top contender for the Kick In the Balls Of the Decade award, worldwide.

[Heid the Ba]

I’m not sure if you think he did a good or a bad thing. It looks good to me.

[Arneb]

Well, should'nt that be clear enough given that the balls kicked were BoJo's and those of the Let's Make No Deal Happen Regardless gang?