Illuminati-R-Us

Well, your election, our problem time again. I'm really keeping my fingers crossed that you manage to remove this asshole from office.

You and me both, brother.

If we do in fact vote him out, that leaves my other concern: how much further damage he can do between now and the end of hus term.

He'll do his darndest, that's for sure.

How has everyone been biden their time today?

I see Trumplecuntskin has been stamping his feet and shouting about fraud already, even though he's doing much better than expected so far.

A lawyers office in Fife, Heid the Ba greets a client, an older man:
Heid the Ba: How are things Mr X?
Client: To be honest I'm knackered son, I stayed up too late and then this morning I turned on the telly and that fucking bawbag was lying through his teeth . . . fuck sorry, I didnae mean tae swear.
Heid the Ba: That's ok don't worry.
Client: Did I call you son? I'm really sorry but yon smug arse was winding me up.
Heid the Ba: Really it's fine, have a seat . . .
And scene.

I like him.

Lianachan wrote:I see Trumplecuntskin has been stamping his feet and shouting about fraud already, even though he's doing much better than expected so far.

Well maybe that's due to fraud.

Мастер wrote:

Lianachan wrote:I see Trumplecuntskin has been stamping his feet and shouting about fraud already, even though he's doing much better than expected so far.

Well maybe that's due to fraud.

Fake news! Stop the count!

Very much enjoying Trump’s increasingly deranged tweets tonight.

Lianachan wrote:Fake news! Stop the count!

He's trying.

Problem for Trump is, if you stop the count nationally now, Biden wins.

So Trump needs them to stop the count in Pennsylvania and Georgia, where he is still ahead based on currently counted votes, but needs them to continue counting in Nevada and Arizona, where he is currently behind and needs to make up the difference.

Nobody said he was smart... well, except for himself.

So, I'm thinking 306 - 232.

Clinton had 227 electoral votes in 2016. Four of her electors in Washington voted for someone else, three for Colin Powel, and one for Faith Spotted Eagle. And she lost one in Hawaii to Bernie Sanders.

So if she kept those five, she would have had 232. Biden appears to have won everything that Clinton won; the only one that may be in doubt here is Nevada (6 electoral votes). In addition, he has most likely picked up one elector in Nebraska (which splits its votes), Wisconsin (10), and Michigan (16). So that's 259. It also seems like he will win Arizona (11), which would give him the magic number of 270. The news talking head commented that Trump's advisors must have been telling him for years to stop ripping into John McCain, and now it looks like Trump loses Arizona. Maybe he should have listened.

Biden may well pick up Georgia (16) and Pennsylvania (20), which would give him 306.

Some Trump advisor just said, if Trump loses Georgia (and in the last count, his lead is under 40,000 votes), the game is over. If Biden picks up Georgia (16), I'd say Trump's only prayer is to keep Pennsylvania (20), win North Carolina (15), win Alaska (3), and also win Nevada (6) and Arizona (11), both of which are called for Biden by Мастер. (He also needs to pick up one of the electoral votes in Maine, which is called for Trump in Мастер's prediction.) That would make it a 269 - 269 tie, with Trump most likely winning in the House of Representatives. So I'm not sure that losing Georgia is fatal for Trump, but it requires him to pick up both Arizona and Nevada, and those are not looking likely.

I don't think Biden faithless electors will be a problem. I understand the idea behind protest votes and that sort of thing, but I can't imagine any democratic elector would want to go down in history as the person who gave Donald Trump a second term.

And last counts in Arizona do not look good for Trump.

If Biden takes Arizona, then Trump must win Pennsylvania, Georgia, North Carolina, and Nevada. He could afford to lose the loose electoral vote in Maine and Alaska.

So I'd say our friends from the central part of North America will have a new president soon. It's not a certainty, but I will be surprised if the old one wins re-election at this point.

So Biden looks like he's still leading in Nevada (4:23pm NZ Time 5 Nov 2020). With 75% counted, Biden has 588,252, Trump has 580,605

unless my fibre is reallllly slow today (which it could be)

tubeswell wrote:So Biden looks like he's still leading in Nevada (4:23pm NZ Time 5 Nov 2020). With 75% counted, Biden has 588,252, Trump has 580,605

unless my fibre is reallllly slow today (which it could be)

That is the count.

I forget which time zone Nevada is in, but it's either 10:32 or 11:32 in the evening there. The news are reporting that Nevada vote counting efforts are over for today, and there will be no further update today (they haven't updated their totals for quite a while).

But, I don't think it matters. There are still six states uncalled; all the news networks seem to agree on the other 44, and the District of Columbia; the makes it Biden 253 - 213 Trump. He who gets 270, is the winner. The six states, with their electoral votes, are

Alaska (3)
Nevada (6)
Arizona (11)
Georgia (16)
North Carolina (15)
Pennsylvania (20)

There is also one lone electoral vote from Maine that will probably break for Trump. (Maine and Nebraska split their vote.). Alaska and North Carolina will probably break for Trump, so that would make it Biden 253 - 232 Trump. The remaining states are:

Nevada (6)
Arizona (11)
Georgia (16)
Pennsylvania (20)

Trump needs to win Pennsylvania and two of the other three to win. Arizona is looking bad for Trump, and Pennsylvania and Georgia currently have Trump ahead, but as they count the mail ballots, things are shifting towards Biden at a rate that will put him ahead when they are finished.

So if we put Arizona in Biden's column, the only way Trump can win is to take Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina. All four. (He doesn't need Alaska and the lone vote from Maine in this scenario.)

Anything is possible, but if I were to bet at even odds, I'd put my money on Biden at this point.

Biden still has a number of ways to get the 270, Trump has a lot fewer.

Fun to watch Trump squirm. He has his MAGA hats out there yelling. In Pennsylvania they are chanting "stop the count. stop the count." Because Trump is ahead at this point there. Of course out west, they are chanting "count the votes" because he might gain.

Must feel good to be a Democrat supporter in Michigan today.

Yeah. I guess apart from an actual coup d'etat, Trump is toast. But he will do his darndest to make everyone feel his pain. Hang in there folks.

Arneb wrote:Yeah. I guess apart from an actual coup d'etat, Trump is toast.

I know which side I'd bet on, with even odds, at this point. But I haven't seen anything to suggest a Trump victory is impossible yet. Unlikely, yes. But not impossible.

And, even if he loses, he can always run again in 2024. He'll be as old then as Biden is now.

And, there's going to be some updated news from Georgia in a few minutes.

If Biden wins Georgia, Trump needs to win literally every remaining electoral vote, and even then, the final result is a tie. Although Trump would most likely win a tie.

Still no news out of Georgia, though the lead is decreasing there. And Biden's lead has increased in Nevada.

Guess it's still too soon to say "it's all over but the lyin' ".

g-one wrote:Still no news out of Georgia, though the lead is decreasing there. And Biden's lead has increased in Nevada.

Nevada+Arizona for Biden are all he needs. If those two hold, Pennsylvania and Georgia do not matter.

We are pleased to claim we did our part in Michigan, while my sister lives in Pennsylvania, and I like to rag on her that she isn't holding up her end.

Well, if you’re confident she’s on the same side . . .