President Donald J. Trump

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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:52 am

Мастер wrote:So, I'm thinking 306 - 232.


Still holding steady.

Looks like Biden is about to pull ahead in Georgia. If that happens, and holds, Trump can only tie, not win. (Although a tie probably results in him being reelected.) And the tie requires Trump to win Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Nevada, Arizona, Alaska, and the lone electoral vote in Maine. My 306 - 232 prediction remains in force; in this scenario, Trump wins only Alaska and North Carolina and the lone electoral vote in Maine.

It looks like Georgia and Pennsylvania are going to be close, but holding for Biden. And I don't think he needs them anyway.

So if Trump is forcibly removed from the Oval Office by the Secret Service on 20 January, will it be televised?
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby tubeswell » Fri Nov 06, 2020 5:34 am

Мастер wrote:
Мастер wrote:So, I'm thinking 306 - 232.
So if Trump is forcibly removed from the Oval Office by the Secret Service on 20 January, will it be televised?


Him and Melania will sneak out the back way as the FBI is bludgeoning down the front door.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:07 am

tubeswell wrote:Him and Melania will sneak out the back way as the FBI is bludgeoning down the front door.


I get the impression she doesn't spend very much time in the White House.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 06, 2020 7:23 am

Georgia will provide no further updates tonight (local time).

Currently, Trump leads there by 1,267 votes.

A recount is a-coming . . .

At the rate that Biden is picking up votes in Pennsylvania though, he will get a recount-proof plurality, and enough electoral votes to win the election without Georgia.

So I think a recount in Georgia won't change anything, unless there is also a recount in another state.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 06, 2020 8:29 am

Oops, apparently there was one more update.

Trump leading by 665 votes in Georgia.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:09 am

And now a 463 vote lead for Trump in Georgia.

They sure are having a lot of updates tonight, for a state that wasn’t going to have any more updates tonight.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby tubeswell » Fri Nov 06, 2020 9:42 am

Now a 917 vote lead for Biden in Georgia

The writing seems to be on the wall
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 06, 2020 10:26 am

Yes, they sure are updating a lot for people who supposedly went home for the night.

With Georgia, the best Trump can do, even if he wins Alaska, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Nevada, Arizona, and the lone vote in Maine, is a tie (although Trump probably wins a tie).

The paths to a Trump victory seem to be dwindling by the hour, after being about the same for a day and a half.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Halcyon Dayz, FCD » Fri Nov 06, 2020 12:03 pm

tubeswell wrote:
Мастер wrote:
Мастер wrote:So, I'm thinking 306 - 232.
So if Trump is forcibly removed from the Oval Office by the Secret Service on 20 January, will it be televised?


Him and Melania will sneak out the back way as the FBI is bludgeoning down the front door.

Taking the good china with them.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby MM_Dandy » Fri Nov 06, 2020 2:54 pm

Enzo wrote:We are pleased to claim we did our part in Michigan, while my sister lives in Pennsylvania, and I like to rag on her that she isn't holding up her end.


Looks like she just pulled through. Biden now leads in Pennsylvania (and Georgia!!), and most of the outstanding votes are mail-in ballots from largely Democrat districts.

Five Thirty Eight just reported that at least one news 'decision desk' has called PA and the presidency for Biden.

I've already heard some murmurs of Trump running again in 2024. I'm pretty sure the SDNY will have something to say about that. The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby g-one » Fri Nov 06, 2020 4:54 pm

MM_Dandy wrote:Five Thirty Eight just reported that at least one news 'decision desk' has called PA and the presidency for Biden.

Looks like they wanted to be the first, already at around 9AM eastern: https://slate.com/news-and-politics/202 ... is-it.html

I think the Penn mail extension will go all the way to the Supreme court and the result could be overturned. So that will be some kind of face saving small win for him. Hopefully it won't matter anyway.

There is a legitimate question of whether he will flee the country before there is even need to remove him at term end.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby MM_Dandy » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:42 pm

Absolutely. I think it's very likely that he resigns (probably as late as the night of January 19th) and has Pence issue a pardon. I don't think he flees the country, though. He strikes me as the kind of guy who fully believes that he can get whatever outcome he wants from the courts. In the end, I don't think he'll get what he deserves, but I don't think he'll completely avoid a prison sentence, either - unless he dies.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby g-one » Fri Nov 06, 2020 6:55 pm

MM_Dandy wrote:Absolutely. I think it's very likely that he resigns (probably as late as the night of January 19th) and has Pence issue a pardon.

I did not realize that was an option, would it work? He can't have a pre-emptive blanket pardon can he? Wouldn't a pardon have to be in regard to a particular criminal charge, and how could he cover off for all such potential charges?
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Sat Nov 07, 2020 12:05 am

MM_Dandy wrote:I've already heard some murmurs of Trump running again in 2024. I'm pretty sure the SDNY will have something to say about that. The wheels of justice turn slowly, but grind exceedingly fine.


Both Eugene Debs and Lyndon LaRouche have run from prison.

g-one wrote:I did not realize that was an option, would it work? He can't have a pre-emptive blanket pardon can he? Wouldn't a pardon have to be in regard to a particular criminal charge, and how could he cover off for all such potential charges?


Richard Nixon received a blanket pardon covering any crimes.

The problem is, the president can only pardon federal crimes, and Trump’s problem may be the state of New York. We really don’t know how strong of a case they have at this point.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby MM_Dandy » Sat Nov 07, 2020 1:53 am

Мастер wrote:Both Eugene Debs and Lyndon LaRouche have run from prison.


True, but they were commies. ;) But you have a point, I recall LaRouche getting a decent amount of votes in one or two of those elections. I always wondered how that would work if he actually got elected. At any rate, I'm not sure even the Republican party would endorse an inmate. And that assumes he'd actually be in prison by then, and even though the wheels of justice grind exceedingly fine, they turn slowly.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Sat Nov 07, 2020 2:54 am

I think my 306 - 232 prediction is going to be spot on.

Of course I made the prediction after the news media had already called 44 states, so that makes it a bit easier.

Pennsylvania has mandatory recounts if the margin of victory is within 0.5%; candidates cannot request recounts. The margin is currently within that limit, but if it swings a few thousand more votes in Biden's direction, it will be outside of the recount range. That would certainly be a cruel blow for Trump.

Georgia will have a recount.

If Pennsylvania moves outside the recount range, it looks like the only prayer Trump has is a successful (i.e., changing the winner to Trump) recounts in Wisconsin and Georgia, and winning North Carolina (seems likely), Arizona (not likely), and then either Alaska and the lone vote in Maine (both likely) for the tie, or Nevada (unlikely) for the win.

So if Pennsylvania continues to slip away from Trump, he needs Georgia, Wisconsin, and Arizona - lose anyone, he's out, and all of these seem unlikely for Trump.

So loss of Pennsylvania may not be fatal to Trump, but it's about as close at it gets.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Arneb » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:45 am

It would be fatal for an American President believeing in the American way of democracy. Alas...

That Pence takeover a day from Inauguration sounds like a grat idea, IF the Donald can escape the grasp of New York.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Sat Nov 07, 2020 10:52 am

And the media have been reporting the same electoral vote totals for a solid three days now.

It is the tomorrow that is always a day away . . .
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Lianachan » Sat Nov 07, 2020 11:25 am

Мастер wrote:And the media have been reporting the same electoral vote totals for a solid three days now.

It is the tomorrow that is always a day away . . .

As I posted on Facebook yesterday, I think the most surprising thing I’ve learned from the US election (so far) is that the Super Bowl isn’t the longest and most boring American thing after all.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Мастер » Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:25 pm

So CNN just projected that Biden wins Pennsylvania, and with it, the presidency.

Of course media declarations have no official effect.

But I think we've all known it was going this way for a couple of days now.

Presumably, Trump is jumping up and down and cursing at the television right now. (OK, well I do that too.)

The Мастер projection of Biden 306 - 232 Trump seems to be holding up quite well.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby g-one » Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:30 pm

Four Seasons has put out a statement today that Trump's press conference will not be at their hotel. Seems there's another Four Seasons in town.

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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Arneb » Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:32 pm

Мастер wrote:Presumably, Trump is jumping up and down and cursing at the television right now. (OK, well I do that too.).


Do you do that because you'd preferred a Trump victory?
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby g-one » Sat Nov 07, 2020 4:53 pm

Мастер wrote:So CNN just projected that Biden wins Pennsylvania, and with it, the presidency.

Of course media declarations have no official effect.



AP is calling it a Biden win: https://apnews.com/article/Biden-Trump- ... a69adb71f9
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby MM_Dandy » Sun Nov 08, 2020 1:31 am

Мастер wrote:Presumably, Trump is jumping up and down and cursing at the television right now. (OK, well I do that too.)


Take a guess as to what he was actually doing at the time (if you haven't already read/seen/heard about it in the media already)...
Spoiler:
He was golfing.
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Re: President Donald J. Trump

Postby Lance » Sun Nov 08, 2020 7:16 pm

Watch on youtube.com
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