GER elections

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GER elections

Postby Arneb » Sun Sep 24, 2017 8:08 pm

Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and Christian Social Union- 33, down 8
Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD)- 21, down 4
Xenophobic racist fascist fucktards, masquerading as Alternative "for" Germany (AfD) - 13, up 8+, enter parliament for the first time
Free Democratic Party (FDP) - 11, up 6+, making a sweeping re-entry after crashing out for the first time in '13
Greens - 9, up 1 or so
The Left - 9, more or less stable
Assorted rubble - <5

The outgoing coalition of CDU and SPD could theoretically just carry on, marshalling a 54 % total. However the SPD chairman has already said that they intend to cool their wounds on the opposition benches. That leaves a so-called "Jamaica" coalition (Black - CD/SU, Yellow - FDP, Green - Greens) as the only option that is mathematically possible as well as politically conceivable. The SPD, however, could wait for the Jamica coalition talks to trainwreck in order to then say, we'll enter this new government with a heavy heart out of responsibility gor the country, and any coalition is better than no coalition and new elections.

For anyone interested, here is a good overview over the German political system that suffers from one major flaw (and we previously discussed this on this board): To think that the American "Conservative - Liberal" dichotomy is the God-given naturals state of affairs, and all parties, everywhere, always, have to line up according to that scheme. It ignores the fact that there is a broad consensus in the country that the market economy should be a "social" one (even for the conservative/Christian party - see here for Catholic social teaching); that the Free Democrats are "liberal" (American "liberal", that is) on social matters, somewhat libertarian in economic matters but also fiscally conservative; that the Green Party, throughout its history, has been a "left" or "liberal" party on many issues but is not (orn not anymore) strongly bound to leftist policies; instead, they also have a strong Christian wing that sees environmentalism as an outflow of "good stewardship", "respect for Creation", etc.; and that NO political party would proclaim that you aren't a citizen if you don't tote your gun or things like that very peculiar to the U.S.

The Left (the legal and ideological successor to the East German Socialist Unity Party, SED) however, is straightforward: They are real Socialists, lobbying for the dissolution of NATO, socialization of key industries and wanting to abolish capitalism. They don't always act like it and behave more like some leftie members of the SPD might, they are in coalition governments on the State level. Personally, I don't trust them for a moment, but they generally refrain from wanting to overthrow the government and "the system by violent means.

The great, great disaster, of course is the AfD win. They a re a motley band of very conservative conservatives, Trumpian populists, and outright Nazis.Today, you should all know, is a very, very sad day for my country. But hey, they didn't become President, they didn't finish as runner-up, we didn't vote to leave the EU, and we didn't sign off on an Enabling Act-like constitution like the Turks. And we still don't have Putin, or Kim. We have Mutti, so I guess we shouldn't clutch our pearls too violently.
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Re: GER elections

Postby tubeswell » Sun Sep 24, 2017 10:57 pm

Arneb wrote:... The Left (the legal and ideological successor to the East German Socialist Unity Party, SED) however, is straightforward: They are real Socialists, lobbying for the dissolution of NATO, socialization of key industries and wanting to abolish capitalism. They don't always act like it and behave more like some leftie members of the SPD might, they are in coalition governments on the State level. Personally, I don't trust them for a moment, but they generally refrain from wanting to overthrow the government and "the system by violent means. ...


This is a healthy democratic condition
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:15 am

Oh absolutely. Except for their fringe, they've pretty much given in to achieving their goals via the democratic process. They have a reasonably successfull Prime Minister with impeccable democratic behaviour in Thuringia, one of the five post-GDR states.

I still don't trust them :D.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Halcyon Dayz, FCD » Mon Sep 25, 2017 12:09 pm

Arneb wrote:The great, great disaster, of course is the AfD win. They a re a motley band of very conservative conservatives, Trumpian populists, and outright Nazis.

This ideological heterodoxy, and the fact they are all rank political amateurs, is why I expect their Bundestag fraction to splinter. Several times over.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Lianachan » Mon Sep 25, 2017 1:29 pm

Halcyon Dayz, FCD wrote:
Arneb wrote:The great, great disaster, of course is the AfD win. They a re a motley band of very conservative conservatives, Trumpian populists, and outright Nazis.

This ideological heterodoxy, and the fact they are all rank political amateurs, is why I expect their Bundestag fraction to splinter. Several times over.
Primadonnas don't work well together

The danger is that other parties see their success, and migrate their own stances in that direction. That's what happened in the UK, with UKIP - the Conservatives moved into their ideological turf and hoovered up their voters. At least UKIP are a spent force now, but the whole country is worse off as a result.
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Re: GER elections

Postby MM_Dandy » Mon Sep 25, 2017 3:35 pm

Lianachan wrote:
Halcyon Dayz, FCD wrote:
Arneb wrote:The great, great disaster, of course is the AfD win. They a re a motley band of very conservative conservatives, Trumpian populists, and outright Nazis.

This ideological heterodoxy, and the fact they are all rank political amateurs, is why I expect their Bundestag fraction to splinter. Several times over.
Primadonnas don't work well together

The danger is that other parties see their success, and migrate their own stances in that direction. That's what happened in the UK, with UKIP - the Conservatives moved into their ideological turf and hoovered up their voters. At least UKIP are a spent force now, but the whole country is worse off as a result.


And has happened in the U.S. (where the Republican shift to accommodate ultra-conservatives has moved both parties to the right) and France, if I'm following correctly.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Mon Sep 25, 2017 5:28 pm

Interesting factoid: Look what kind of blowout for Mutti this election would have been in a British or American electoral system
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/deutschla ... 67247.html
(Scroll down to "Wahlkreiskarte", giving the first-past-the-post results for the 299 constituencies.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Halcyon Dayz, FCD » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:20 pm

Halcyon Dayz, FCD wrote:This ideological heterodoxy, and the fact they are all rank political amateurs, is why I expect their Bundestag fraction to splinter. Several times over.
Primadonnas don't work well together

Holy shit, it has already begun. Frauke Petry, chairwoman of the AfD, has announced she will sit as an independent.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Mon Sep 25, 2017 6:26 pm

There is a certain perverse, guilty pleasure-kind of entertainment value to the twists, turns and machinations of these people. I very much hope Halcyon Dayz' prediction comes true and they blow themselves apart from the inside. But their voters will still be there, and that is what gets me.
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Re: GER elections

Postby tubeswell » Mon Sep 25, 2017 7:51 pm

Halcyon Dayz, FCD wrote:...Frauke Petry, chairwoman of the AfD, has announced she will sit as an independent.


Wow! far right indeed, their agenda is described as 'anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim and anti-austerity' (article stub).

Can't have had much conviction about her campaigning. She must've been contemplating the move all along.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Lianachan » Mon Sep 25, 2017 9:30 pm

tubeswell wrote:
Halcyon Dayz, FCD wrote:...Frauke Petry, chairwoman of the AfD, has announced she will sit as an independent.


Wow! far right indeed, their agenda is described as 'anti-immigrant, anti-Muslim and anti-austerity' (article stub).

Can't have had much conviction about her campaigning. She must've been contemplating the move all along.


The BBC, of course, have been careful to make sure they always refer to them as "nationalists" so they can tar half of us Scots with their racist brush.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Heid the Ba » Thu Oct 05, 2017 12:28 pm

Any update as to the likely outcome?
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Thu Oct 05, 2017 11:11 pm

Jamaica is waiting to happen but no-one is going forward because of the coming State election in Lower Saxony. That election is highly contested as it vas implications for the Bundesrat, our kind of jpper house. Nobody wants to start their hands because they are afraid making compromises will cost with their core constituencies and nobody can afford that.

Ask me again by Christmas.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Tue Nov 21, 2017 8:13 pm

^7 weeks later...

The Lower Saxony election came and went (Social Democrats won, somewhat surprisingly). They have a Grand Coalition now and will quietly set about making the Diesel scandal and other inconveniences disappear.

In the Federation, things look very different. We had four weeks of near incessant rounds and talks between the would-be Jamaica coalition partners) that were in effect coalition negotiations but were called Sondierungsgespräche - exploratory talks. They broke down last Sunday, so now, it's a very open future. Four options:
Jamaica regroups, and they pull through - very, very unlikely
Merkel picks one of the two would-be coalition partners and forms a minority gevernment - very unlikely
The Social Democrats reappear from the wings and say they are willing to form a coalition - less likely than many (including me) would hope. If I were the Social Democrats, I'd tell the Christian Democrats we'll do it, IF you hand us Merkel's head on a silver plate. That would be very, very interesting.
Lengthy proceedings resulting from our constitutional fine print that lead nowhere, then the President heaves a heavy sigh and dissolves parliament. Fresh elections, extreme edges get stregthened, and then we'll see who climbs into the boat.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:11 pm

Good gosh! Nary half a year (Sep 24 - Mar 14), and we have a noo evil gubmint!http://www.illuminati-r-us.com/forums/index.php

After the breakdown of the Jamaica exploration talks, the Social Democrats had to move out of the corner they had painted themselves into (Never Merkel! No Grand Coalition!!). After a while and back-and-forth and the President having quiet but intensive talks with party leaders, the SPD entered into exploratory talks with the two conservative parties. When those came out successful, they had to organize a special party convention to allow themselves to begin formal coalition talks. The party functionaries being what they are - more interested in party politics and political purity - the majority was slim, 56 %.

In the coalition talks, the Social Democrats negotiated hard and won a lot of promises, to the chagrin of more politically conservative, and market-oriented forces. They also landed a slam dunk when they managed to collect 3 biggies into their portfolio of six ministries : Foreign Affairs, Finances, and Labour and Social Affairs (that, not defence, is the ministry with the biggest budget over here). That gave conservative politicians even more chagrin, but the SPD chairman threatened to let the bubble burst, and got away with it.

What followed was a sordid struggle at the SPD top, with the chairman, who had been the first and loudest to shout No Merkel! No Grand Coalition! No Ministry for me! wanted to grab the Foreign Affairs spot from his predecessor. The predecessor reacted with acrid and ad-hominem criticism, and they are both out in the desert now. The party and parliamentary group are now led by Andrea Nahles, the former Labour Minister. She will form a strong parliamentary counterweight to the 6 powerful ministers.

In the sister "C is for Christian" parties, things went smoothly. A bit of to and fro on how-many-women, how many Ossies, how many conservative Conservatives as opposed to progressive Conservatives, how many young ones, etc. , but by and large, it was well-ordered. The Christian Social union had their board decide on the coaliition contract (yes), the Christian Democrats held a special convention (also yes), and the Social Democrats held a party referendum. It came ot two thirds to one for yes, which wasn't surprising given a choice between becoming weaker than even the far-right opposition in a snap election (polls had them at 16 % for a party that scored 42 twenty years ago) or governing in a govenrment where they have two-fifth of the vote but easily 50 or 60 % of the programmatic part, plus 3 big ministries out of their 6.

On Monday, Merkel was suggested for election by the President; today, she was re-elected by the Bundestag (364 of 709, with 35 no votes from the combined SPD/CDU/CSU caucus), appointed by the President, and sworn in by the Parliamentary President. She is now on her way back to the Presidential residence with all her ministers in tow to be instituted by the President, then back to Parliament for the swearing-in of the ministers. It all involves a lot of driving between the Reichstag building and Schloss Bellevue, where the President resides. And no, there is no designated survivor.

After zis little interruption, ve vill now take up our norrmal schedule of operations again. Ssank you for your patience, vorld.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Enzo » Wed Mar 14, 2018 12:54 pm

Our time bomb world continues to tick, but ve haff vays of making you tock.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Lance » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:15 pm

Enzo everyone. Try the veal.
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Wed Mar 14, 2018 4:30 pm

Enzo isn't being funny, Enzo is right. Germany VILL safe ze Vorld now. Click your heels, allies!
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Re: GER elections

Postby Lance » Wed Mar 14, 2018 9:27 pm

Heil Arzt! (I think)
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Re: GER elections

Postby Arneb » Wed Mar 14, 2018 10:08 pm

That's the 'tude!
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