by Richard A » Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:19 pm
Interesting. Will the UK want back in? Almost certainly. Already the polls are moving far more towards a Remain position - and that's before the full impact of Brexit hits. Wait until the Leavers find themselves queuing up in the Others line at Alicante, Larnaca, etc. (and quite possibly having to have obtained a visa first), then finding that an exchange rate of 10 cents to the pound means that it's a damned expensive holiday - but then the sharply increased prices of Italian peaches, any European beers than aren't brewed here under licence and so forth will have given a warning of that. And the Leave leaders know it: no wonder they have been working overtime to oppose any thought of a vote on the final EU deal. (Jokes of England demanding a rematch after our defeat to Belgium, for example.) They play up the current low unemployment, etc., but they're not at all confident that they can successfully play on these to win a second referendum. If they were, their reaction to a People's Vote would be: "bring it on, let's settle this!" Although of course that's exactly what Theresa May said last year when she called an election!
Will the EU let us back in? Good question. The current EU leaders have shown themselves well aware of the large pro-EU "minority" (if it is still a minority) in the UK and have played to us: comments like they hope the UK will rejoin in due course. There were even suggestions of an "associate EU citizenship", which Brits who wanted it could have in return for a payment of, I think, 250€, although they have been eclipsed by the European Citizens' Initiative calling for guaranteed rights for British citizens currently living in the EU and wanting to stay there. But down the line? A lot will depend on the politicians. If the respective governments in Edinburgh and London get on (and if they're in the respective moulds of Sturgeon and Corbyn, they well might), I don't see the barrier coming from Scotland. More likely from the likes of Poland and Lithuania, who saw the Brexiteers talk about their citizens the way Donald Trump's supporters talk about Mexicans - both Farage and May have been very clear that Brexit is above all about immigration. (That said, will Poland and Hungary still be in the EU in 2035 - or will the divergence between the values of their governments and the EU become too great?) Or possibly from France and Belgium - it's been their leaders, far more than Merkel, that the Daily Mail and Daily Express have insulted. Though perhaps those particularly wounds may have healed by 2035.
It all reminds me of a discussion Arneb and I had around the time of the referendum, in which he said that the EU would also lose from Brexit. I wasn't convinced then - of course I knew the UK would lose, but that's another matter. Some economies could well do - if the eurozone becomes unaffordable, the package tourists who currently go to Spain and Greece may head to Turkey. (Ouch, that's going to hurt for the latter, although they probably tire of Essex boys heaving up in the streets to the strains of 'Ere We Go.) And sales of VWs and Skodas in the UK probably help maintain jobs in Germany and the Czech Republic - but there are markets elsewhere. Maybe the EU can say, with reason, "So go back in your shell, we can do bloody well without you!"
I guess we'll see!