Brit-in

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Brit-in

Postby Arneb » Wed Aug 22, 2018 5:29 pm

Here's a nice one. The youth organization of Mutti's reigning Christian Democratic Union is starting a campaign for the re-entry of the UK into the EU. They want Brexitshire back in by 2035, showing they do care for long-term projects (as political youth org should), but Paul Zimiak (the chairman) probably needn't bother with planning rallies in, say, Cornwall or northern Wales.

So what do you think? Will they want back in? More importantly, will the EU let them or will Scotland veto a Re-Brentry? As you all know, it only takes one EU member to block a new member from entering. Those are the hard questions of the 30s, I tell you.
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Re: Brit-in

Postby Richard A » Sat Aug 25, 2018 2:19 pm

Interesting. Will the UK want back in? Almost certainly. Already the polls are moving far more towards a Remain position - and that's before the full impact of Brexit hits. Wait until the Leavers find themselves queuing up in the Others line at Alicante, Larnaca, etc. (and quite possibly having to have obtained a visa first), then finding that an exchange rate of 10 cents to the pound means that it's a damned expensive holiday - but then the sharply increased prices of Italian peaches, any European beers than aren't brewed here under licence and so forth will have given a warning of that. And the Leave leaders know it: no wonder they have been working overtime to oppose any thought of a vote on the final EU deal. (Jokes of England demanding a rematch after our defeat to Belgium, for example.) They play up the current low unemployment, etc., but they're not at all confident that they can successfully play on these to win a second referendum. If they were, their reaction to a People's Vote would be: "bring it on, let's settle this!" Although of course that's exactly what Theresa May said last year when she called an election!

Will the EU let us back in? Good question. The current EU leaders have shown themselves well aware of the large pro-EU "minority" (if it is still a minority) in the UK and have played to us: comments like they hope the UK will rejoin in due course. There were even suggestions of an "associate EU citizenship", which Brits who wanted it could have in return for a payment of, I think, 250€, although they have been eclipsed by the European Citizens' Initiative calling for guaranteed rights for British citizens currently living in the EU and wanting to stay there. But down the line? A lot will depend on the politicians. If the respective governments in Edinburgh and London get on (and if they're in the respective moulds of Sturgeon and Corbyn, they well might), I don't see the barrier coming from Scotland. More likely from the likes of Poland and Lithuania, who saw the Brexiteers talk about their citizens the way Donald Trump's supporters talk about Mexicans - both Farage and May have been very clear that Brexit is above all about immigration. (That said, will Poland and Hungary still be in the EU in 2035 - or will the divergence between the values of their governments and the EU become too great?) Or possibly from France and Belgium - it's been their leaders, far more than Merkel, that the Daily Mail and Daily Express have insulted. Though perhaps those particularly wounds may have healed by 2035.

It all reminds me of a discussion Arneb and I had around the time of the referendum, in which he said that the EU would also lose from Brexit. I wasn't convinced then - of course I knew the UK would lose, but that's another matter. Some economies could well do - if the eurozone becomes unaffordable, the package tourists who currently go to Spain and Greece may head to Turkey. (Ouch, that's going to hurt for the latter, although they probably tire of Essex boys heaving up in the streets to the strains of 'Ere We Go.) And sales of VWs and Skodas in the UK probably help maintain jobs in Germany and the Czech Republic - but there are markets elsewhere. Maybe the EU can say, with reason, "So go back in your shell, we can do bloody well without you!"

I guess we'll see!
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Re: Brit-in

Postby Arneb » Mon Aug 27, 2018 5:45 pm

Hey Richard, so nice you're coming back!

Of, course, the joke in my post was that a by-then independent Scotland would by then be a member of the EU, and gleefully ask call a price for a Breturn. But that seems to hav e passed by our two Scottish friend. Or maybe just wasn't worth commenting on. :D

I find myself migrating into the We-can-do-bloody-well-without-you camp, but I am not sure this isn't just some emotional response. It is quite clear we all lose. The only one who can really rejoice in Brexit is Vladimir Putin. Boy, hes's having a long string of successes at the moment.
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Re: Brit-in

Postby Мастер » Mon Aug 27, 2018 6:24 pm

I would be surprised if, once Brexit takes place, the UK (with or without Scotland, as the case may turn out to be) would be readmitted on anything like the same terms it has now. Euro will be required, etc.

At least, that's my guess.
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Re: Brit-in

Postby Arneb » Mon Aug 27, 2018 7:00 pm

They won't get "their money back", slamming handbags on tables or not. There's the end of the queue, please, if you don't mind
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Re: Brit-in

Postby Richard A » Tue Aug 28, 2018 9:02 pm

Haha I didn't realise that the idea of Scotland being an EU Member State by then (2035) was meant as a joke. I took it as a given. Particularly as the main obstacle, Rajoy, is no longer in office. And I see that van Rompuy has warned that a no deal Brexit threatens the unity of the EU - too right it does!
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Re: Brit-in

Postby Lianachan » Wed Aug 29, 2018 8:58 am

A Spanish veto of EU membership of an independent Scotland was just Project Fear bullshit anyway.
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Re: Brit-in

Postby Lianachan » Thu Sep 20, 2018 2:47 pm

A-nis bidh fios aig daoine nuair a tha mi a 'mionnachadh aig dhaibh.
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