Мудак

[Richard A]

But as with all asterisks used in such contexts, we all know what it said!

[Мастер]

But as with all asterisks used in such contexts, we all know what it said!

My Ukrainian sucks, but I can't think of another way to fill in the asterisk.

[tubeswell]

So Ukraine, then Moldova it seems?

[Richard A]

The same friend - who has studied Russia and, before that, the Soviet Union and so knows what he's talking about - who said that Putin has no designs on the Baltic states also said that Moldova should be worried. I agree. They have a breakaway area whose people would prefer to be part of Russia. While I was interested to discover that the people Russia liberated in Abkhazia aren't actually ethnic Russians but Abkhazians, with their own language and everything, the people in Transnistria really are Russians. And the Moldavian SSR really did only come into existence as a result of Romania having Bessarabia taken off it as a penalty for backing the wrong side in World War I. I've wondered for a while whether Putin, if he found taking Kyiv too difficult, would try to head along the coast to try to link Crimea up with Transnistria. And possibly the rest of Moldova as well as a reminder to think carefully before they pick sides.

I guess we'll see.

[Мастер]

The same friend - who has studied Russia and, before that, the Soviet Union and so knows what he's talking about - who said that Putin has no designs on the Baltic states also said that Moldova should be worried. I agree. They have a breakaway area whose people would prefer to be part of Russia. While I was interested to discover that the people Russia liberated in Abkhazia aren't actually ethnic Russians but Abkhazians, with their own language and everything, the people in Transnistria really are Russians. And the Moldavian SSR really did only come into existence as a result of Romania having Bessarabia taken off it as a penalty for backing the wrong side in World War I. I've wondered for a while whether Putin, if he found taking Kyiv too difficult, would try to head along the coast to try to link Crimea up with Transnistria. And possibly the rest of Moldova as well as a reminder to think carefully before they pick sides.

I guess we'll see.

Transnistria has come up before at IRU (maybe in this thread, I didn't look).

The Georgian separatist regions have been agitating for independence since the Soviet Union broke up. There used to be three, but control has been reasserted in one. The Russian-Georgian war took place when things were heating up again in South Ossetia; they had asked Russia for help before, but didn't get it. This time, they did.

But I have wondered how Russian troops (who have been in Transistria for a long time) get in and out - do they cross Ukraine by land, fly in or out, whatever.

So frozen conflicts in the post-Soviet zone - we have two in Georgia, one in Moldova, and one in Azerbaijan (I am not sure that the last receives any support from Russia). The red line in 1991 seemed to be, the SSRs can become independent if they want (including Russia), but regions of the SSRs (e.g., Chechnya) cannot. As Chechnya is nearly independent (the dictator salutes the Russian flag, but otherwise does what he wants), we might call that one a frozen conflict also. Then since 2014, we have Crimea, which may be becoming unfrozen, and also Donetsk, which was never quite frozen.

I don't know that Putin would have any interest in all of Moldova, but clearly has shown interest in part of it. Since Ukraine did not fold like a cheap accordion as many anticipated, access to Transnistria seems to be a bit of a problem for Russia. The entire country has about one-half the population of Singapore and a bit more than one tenth of the GDP, so I think the thing saving them from any Russian aggression is that one has to go through Ukraine to get there.

If this who Ukraine things ends with a humiliating defeat for Russia, I wonder whether Belarus will begin to behave more independently. I don't suppose China will try to take Vladivostok back.

[Мастер]

So I read someone's discussion about what might have gone wrong for Russia in this war. I have no idea how informed or accurate this speculation is.

But, this individual states, there was someone in charge of a unit of the FSB, who is now in prison. Supposedly, shortly after the Crimea invasion in 2014, he started doing an "Our Man in Havana", and had Putin convinced that he had put together a ready opposition network in Ukraine. As he anticipated that this alleged intelligence/opposition network would never actually be used, the funds allocated to support it were simply embezzled instead.

So when Russian army units, executing a mission apparently planned for months (and possibly for years), ran out of supplies on the second day of the invasion, this was because they actually believed that supplies were already in place waiting for them inside Ukraine. In reality, there was nothing.

As the fraud was discovered almost immediately once the invasion started, and it became painfully obvious that the opposition network was entirely fictional, off to prison this individual went.

Plausible?

[Richard A]

Well, it's possible. I remember hearing about a case during the Soviet era of Moscow, several years after a factory had been built near what was then Leningrad, becoming curious as to why it had never produced anything. Like, not just not having met its targets, hadn't produced a single widget. So they sent a team to investigate - who found that said factory consisted of little more than foundations. Further investigation discovered that its construction had got way behind schedule and so, rather than face embarrassment and possibly worse, those in charge just certified the job finished, the paperwork was duly stamped and sent off to Moscow and that was that. Like I say, it was years before anyone who mattered found out.

In the previous era, this kind of thing was gloriously satirised by Gogol in The Government Inspector. Basic plot of that. A guy with little money and equally few ethics, but great ability to think on his feet arrives in a provincial town to discover that a government inspector from St. Petersburg is due to arrive, to the alarm of just about everyone. So our hero claims that he is the inspector and finds it only too easy to get half the citizenry to pay him off rather than have him report back. Not clear whose side Gogol's on: the fake inspector manages to leave town just before the real one arrives. I liked Gogol: he opened another work with the line, "What a jacket Ivan Ivanovich has!"

[Мастер]

https://imgflip.com/i/6j6pql

[Мастер]

Found this one the interwebs.

[Мастер]

Explosions in Crimea

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... ach-blast/

[Arneb]

I am shocked, shocked. How can a responsible, upstanding soldier serving his country smoke in the vicinity of high explosives? As we used to say in Germany, wenn das der Führer wüsste!

[Мастер]

I am shocked, shocked. How can a responsible, upstanding soldier serving his country smoke in the vicinity of high explosives? As we used to say in Germany, wenn das der Führer wüsste!

The Ukrainian military made a Facebook post reminding the Russians of the importance of fire safety rules

[Arneb]

Absolutely! They sorely needed that reminder.

[Мастер]

Absolutely! They sorely needed that reminder.

Apparently still do.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62560041

[Мастер]

And in possibly related news, a new traffic record has been set on the Kerch bridge.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-societ ... media.html

This bridge connects Crimea to Russia (or the rest of Russia, depending on your viewpoint).

The article does not provide a breakdown of the traffic volume by direction.

[Richard A]

Well, it would kind of spoil your holiday!

[Мастер]

Well, it would kind of spoil your holiday!

There is an organisation here that plans a trip to Russia each year. 2020 and 2021 were COVID-cancelled, and now the sanctions (possibly to go, but you have to pay for everything using cash).

This year, they gave up and arranged a trip to Georgia instead. (That is Georgia the country, not Georgia the US state.)

[Мастер]

The daughter of the person known as "Putin's brain" killed in a car bombing.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-62621509

It is generally suspected that her father was the actual target.

This seems a bit unusual; it is more typical for critics of the Russian government to come to such gruesome ends.

When Boris Nemtsov was killed just outside the Kremlin, none of the surveillance cameras there seemed to be working. I'm going to guess that in this case, if there were any cameras nearby, we'll discover that they were working.

[Richard A]

I see Russia has - predictably - said the Security Service of Ukraine did it. Not impossible, but a number of allies of Putin have made business enemies as well as political ones. And it seems a reach for the SBU to be able to carry out an assassination in Moscow. Crimea possibly, but Moscow?

[Мастер]

I see Russia has - predictably - said the Security Service of Ukraine did it. Not impossible, but a number of allies of Putin have made business enemies as well as political ones. And it seems a reach for the SBU to be able to carry out an assassination in Moscow. Crimea possibly, but Moscow?

If it's a Russian group, that doesn't exactly sound like good news for Putin. Usually it is opposition people meeting violent deaths.

[Arneb]

Also, even if you are the SBU and you are able to carry out an attack on a high-value target in Moscow, you'll probably only be able to do it once, maybe twice. People must be brought out of the country, traces have to be erased as much as possible, you could lose some of your network to arrests, torture, murder. If you've got one shot, why spend the golden opportunity on a mere bootlicker? I agree with Mactep, this thing could be internal - and bad news for uncle Volodya.

[Мастер]

Claims that it was a Russian group called the NRA (nothing to do with the American NRA).

https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/news/2022/08/21/7364237/

[Мастер]

I’m seeing quite a bit of disagreement on the wire about how much influence this guy actually has on Putin.

I did see a video of him speaking (in English) about his reaction to Trump’s inauguration speech, which was that he (Dugin) could have written it himself.

[Мастер]

This one is somewhere in Poland.

Note the last three words in Russian.

Again, it is very impolite to use the familiar form, иди, instead of идите, with someone you don't know.

[Lance]

Note the last three words in Russian.

Again, it is very impolite to use the familiar form, иди, instead of идите, with someone you don't know.

Can you translate for those of us who may not be able to read it?