Мудак

[Мастер]

I wonder if this wasn't just a way to get out for Prigozhin to get out from under the shitstorm in Ukraine.

So he couldn't just quit?

[Richard A]

I'm not sure just quitting was an option.

But yes, I'm not sure anyone is going to be offering Prigozhin life insurance. Unless he uses Belarus as a convenient platform from which to go somewhere else fairly smartly. Putin may want him to suddenly fall ill, but not before there's been time for the 25,000 to properly disperse, preferably back to Ukraine. And him disappearing permanently from the political scene, even if continuing to breathe somewhere else, could be good enough. From Putin's point of view, Litvinenko, Nemtsov et al. continued to cause trouble, so if Prigozhin were not to ... And from Prigozhin's, not only does he continue to live, but there are opportunities enough in plenty of other places for him to do what he does best. He's a mercenary, so finding someone else to pay him to brutalise a population should be OK. Even more if, as many do, the new paymaster doesn't have designs on integrating Prigozhin's dogs of war into the regular armed forces.

Oh and a final thought. If the chosen paymaster was someone the West didn't like, that could make this scenario a bit easier for Putin to stomach.

[Мастер]

I'm not sure just quitting was an option.

Well, it seems like what he got was, fleeing the country, leaving New Island restaurant and the Wagner Group behind. I would have thought that option was available to him without marching on Moscow.

But one narrative I am seeing:

a) The Americans detected that Wagner was preparing to do something as early as Wednesday, although they weren't really sure what his plans were.

b) Friday, Prigozhin, who for months has been making public statements almost on a daily basis that would get almost any other Russian arrested (or killed), released a video in which he said the Ukraine war was based on false pretence and Russia should withdraw.

c) There was a missile attack by Russia on a Wagner camp, presumably to kill Prigozhin.

(I am trying to confirm that events b) and c) happened in the order indicated above, and not the other way around.)

d) Prigozhin realised he was a dead man walking if he didn't do something, and promptly had his group march on Roston-on-Don, and also head towards Moscow.

e) During the march, Putin, Lukashenko, and Prigozhin worked out a deal that gave Prigozhin what he wanted (to stay alive) and Putin what he wanted (the mutiny to end). It might also give Lukashenko what he wants if the new branch of the New Island restaurant opens in Minsk.

f) The rest of Wagner PMC is on its own, although they have a promise not to be prosecuted.

All promises above are guaranteed by the word of Putin.

Now, if that narrative is accurate (and again, I need to confirm that I have b) and c) in the correct order), then the natural question is, what was Prigozhin planning to do before the bombing? Wagner gets their ammunition from the regular Russian military, but reports are, he had been stockpiling it. Stockpiling it for what? What did the Americans detect on Wednesday?

Prigozhin has been calling for Shoigu and Gerasimov to be executed by firing squad; ordinary Russians can go to jail for using the word "war". The government wanted Wagner to sign a contract bringing them under the control of the military by July 1, and Prigozhin had been refusing. So he and the military were already at each other's throats, but what exactly was he planning to do, before this missile attack? (Assuming the missile attack is genuine.)

But yes, I'm not sure anyone is going to be offering Prigozhin life insurance. Unless he uses Belarus as a convenient platform from which to go somewhere else fairly smartly.

Yes, I think living in a country whose president is there only because Putin saved his arse a few years ago, is probably not the strategy consistent with a long life.

Putin may want him to suddenly fall ill, but not before there's been time for the 25,000 to properly disperse, preferably back to Ukraine.

I have seen it pointed out that Wagner has a number of quite capable commanders, so there could be Prigozhin II if they are not disbanded. Sending them back to Ukraine as a unit doesn't quite work.

And him disappearing permanently from the political scene, even if continuing to breathe somewhere else, could be good enough. From Putin's point of view, Litvinenko, Nemtsov et al. continued to cause trouble, so if Prigozhin were not to ... And from Prigozhin's, not only does he continue to live, but there are opportunities enough in plenty of other places for him to do what he does best.

Possibly, although it has also been pointed out that Putin tends to lash out when he has been humiliated . . .

He's a mercenary, so finding someone else to pay him to brutalise a population should be OK. Even more if, as many do, the new paymaster doesn't have designs on integrating Prigozhin's dogs of war into the regular armed forces.

Well could be, but I think a lot of people are probably having a rethink now on whether having mercenaries around is really a good idea.

This whole thing just doesn't make a lot of sense to me . . .

[Мастер]

So there are reports that the criminal case against Prigozhin has not been dropped, as it allegedly should have been under this deal.

Belarus doesn't seem to know where Prigozhin is.

And Prigozhin, who absolutely does not suffer from excessive shyness, hasn't been heard from since driving off from Rostov-on-Don.

[Мастер]

So I found a website listing all the countries populations, each one from a different source at a different time sometime within the last few years.

So the numbers can only be compared with some error.

But, I tabulated all the former Soviet countries, and found the percentages they make up today.

Code: Select all

Russia         146,424,729    48.56%
Ukraine         41,130,432    13.64%
Uzbekistan      36,297,477    12.04%
Kazakhstan      19,886,092     6.59%
Azerbaijan      10,135,373     3.36%
Tajikistan       9,506,000     3.15%
Belarus          9,200,617     3.05%
Kyrgyzstan       7,100,000     2.35%
Turkmenistan     6,431,000     2.13%
Georgia          3,736,400     1.24%
Armenia          2,981,200     0.99%
Lithuania        2,862,274     0.95%
Moldova          2,604,000     0.86%
Latvia           1,885,400     0.63%
Estonia          1,365,884     0.45%
------------------------------------
Total          301,546,878   100.00%

There were a few surprises for me there.

[Мастер]

None of the narratives I'm hearing make a whole lot of sense.

So one of Prigozhin's aeroplanes apparently took off from LED, then returned. Now supposedly it is in Minsk.

[Heid the Ba]

Lukashenko (sp?) says Prigozhin is in Belarus. And if you can't trust him, who can you trust.

[Мастер]

Lukashenko (sp?) says Prigozhin is in Belarus. And if you can't trust him, who can you trust.

Kind of odd that Lukashenko now seems like the most trustworthy of the three main actors, isn't it.

[Мастер]

[g-one]

None of the narratives I'm hearing make a whole lot of sense.

Like the one where Putin and Prigozhin staged the whole thing to smoke out any traitors amongst the higher-ups?

(edit: that does dovetail nicely with the term you coined; 'Special Mutiny Operation')

[tubeswell]

So there are reports that the criminal case against Prigozhin has not been dropped, as it allegedly should have been under this deal.

His video rants come across as unbelievably moronic - certainly a naive idiot to think he could trust Putin to honour such a deal. Speaks to the type of mercenary Mr Putin would hire I suppose.

[Мастер]

So I did a Google for "Is Prigozhin dead?"

Here are the first two links that came up.

https://nypost.com/2023/07/12/us-genera ... -is-alive/

https://www.businessinsider.com/wagner- ... ral-2023-7

[Мастер]

This just in:

Putin gives savage one-star review of Prigozhin's New Island Restaurant.

That'll show Prigozhin who's in charge.

[Arneb]

That'll learn ya!

[Мастер]

Is Prigozhin still alive? Veteran CIA Officer comments on the most bizarre coup in history

Warning - it's over thirty minutes long.

And at one point, they have "Lithuania" mislabelled as "Latvia" on the map.

[Мастер]

So it seems one particular мудак will not be visiting South Africa, which gets the country out of a sticky situation.

[Arneb]

Meanwhile, Prigozhin appears to have re-surfaced with a video on one of hisTlegram channels, promising to turn Belarus' army into the second best in the world after Wagner.

[Мастер]

This article is about people who were in prison in Russia for murder, were released to fight for Wagner Group, finished their term, and are now accused of murder again.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-66364272

Great news for Russia, they’ll probably have to sign up for another deployment in Ukraine now.

[Arneb]

You draft your soldiers from.where you get them.

[Heid the Ba]

Is Prigozhin still alive? Veteran CIA Officer comments on the most bizarre coup in history

The veteran CIA officer needs to look through the CIA records if they think that is bizarre.

[Мастер]

Wow, Putin sends Lavrov to India in his place, and India isn’t even party to the ICC.

[Arneb]

Beyond a certain level, you can't be paranoid enough.

[Richard A]

I hadn't seen that. Although friends in South Africa told me before the BRICS meeting that they weren't confident that Ramaphosa would agree to extradite Putin even if he had turned up.

Of course, sending Lavrov to India may not be simple worry about the ICC. Putin will know better than most autocrats that while Prigozhin's death has dealt with one problem, it has raised others that he would be wise to take seriously. Like a large number of well armed, well trained thugs who are thoroughly pissed off and not immediately within reach. The ones that try to do another march on Moscow can be handled with an air strike. It's the conversations in places like Niger and Mali that he might not be privy to - and which Putin as a former intelligence chief will know he's not privy to - that will concern him. He may want to stay at base for the time being.

[Мастер]

I hadn't seen that. Although friends in South Africa told me before the BRICS meeting that they weren't confident that Ramaphosa would agree to extradite Putin even if he had turned up.

I guess there is no way to find out for sure.

[Мастер]

So, CNN reporting that Elon Musk turned off Starlink satellite communications off the Crimea coast when he learned that Ukraine was using them for targeting their drones against the Russian Black Sea fleet.

Musk's fear was apparently of nuclear retaliation by Russia, and a general unwillingness to be part of the war.

I'm trying to work out the technical details - why didn't Ukraine simply use Russia's GPS system, which doesn't have the ability to be turned off? (Or the American system for that matter, which does have the ability to be turned off, but is it? Did the Americans turn it off to prevent Russia from using it? Why wouldn't Russia just use their own?)

The impression I get was, the issue wasn't the availability of systems that broadcast positioning information, but the availability of ground equipment capable of receiving and interpreting the satellite signals.

But if anyone else has any thoughts on this . . .

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/09/07/poli ... index.html