Мудак

[g-one]

My impression is that it was 'online' connectivity that was required, not positioning info.
Some interesting stuff here: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions ... -invasion/

[Мастер]

Deterioration of rights in Russia since “Special Military Operation” began.

https://sg.finance.yahoo.com/news/right ... 24080.html

Continuation of a long-term trend.

[Richard A]

Indeed. One of my former students, a long-time critic of Putin and latterly working for the BBC, was evacuated from Moscow to Riga early in the war. The irony is that now, that would be impossible: even in the (unlikely) event of her not having been arrested, Latvia, like a number of other EU Member States (although not all) is no longer permitting entry of Russian citizens.

For those who wonder how different approaches to such things can be taken by different Member States when there's one Schengen visa, the answer is that individual states can and sometimes do bar the application of a Schengen visa to them. The first time the Missus visited Germany, then on a Chinese passport, her Schengen visa was marked "Not valid for Portugal".

[Мастер]

The first time the Missus visited Germany, then on a Chinese passport, her Schengen visa was marked "Not valid for Portugal".

Aye yai yai. So Schengen has freedom of movement. Except when it doesn’t.

[g-one]

So the guy who claims the 'real' Prigozhin is actually alive in Venezuela has made the claim that Putin died Oct.26
https://thehill.com/opinion/internation ... aggerated/

[Мастер]

So I found this one from someone who is dissatisfied with Germany's level of support for Ukraine.

[Richard A]

LOL. It reminds me of a similar thing I saw some time ago about Sir Keir Starmer, the leader of the UK's Labour Party. In the style of a GoFundMe page, it was calling for contributions to fund an operation to give Sir Keir a spine. Amusing to see that people have done something similar re. Scholz.

Though from outside, it does look like Germany has made its fair contribution re. Ukraine. Having first supplied the museum stock, it's now supplied Leopard tanks - and maybe waiting to see first what the US would do had a certain logic.

No comments yet on this page re. Medvedev's remarks on Poland having become an enemy of Russia and Belarus and risking "losing its statehood" in consequence. It's clearly sabre rattling - even Putin understands that a military attack on a NATO state would have consequences. True, he might be calculating, "are they really going to risk the annihilation of New York, Washington, London, Berlin over ... Poland?" But there's precedent for that. And no one seriously believes Medvedev is voicing opinions on his own. I remember a joke a Polish colleague told me at the start of the Medvedev interregnum after Putin's 2nd term. Putin rings Medvedev. "Dmitry Anatolyevich, could you tell me, who is the President of Russia now?" "Well, you are, Vladimir Vladimirovich." "Good, that's what I thought."

[Мастер]

Putin addresses the G-20, stating that we must think how to stop the tragedy of this war in Ukraine.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/pu ... 023-11-22/

Some of the other participants may have had some helpful suggestions about how to stop the tragedy of this war.

[Мастер]

So as I'm sure you all know, Putin came to prominence working for Anatoly Sobchak, the mayor of Saint Petersburg (Putin's hometown).

Sobchak only survived a few weeks into the Putin presidency (acting presidency - he didn't even make it to the election). The initial report was a heart attack, but some sources have reported that two of his aides had "heart attacks" at the same time. His widow had her own autopsy done, but did not disclose the results; she says she keeps them in a secure location outside of Russia.

Anyway, here is Sobchak's daughter at a party the other day.

Perhaps if she had worn this outfit while running for the presidency of Russia in 2018, she would have received more than 1.68% of the vote.

[Lance]

Maybe, but I don't think a lot more.

[g-one]

[g-one]

Guess who's back



SMERSH unit revived in Russia

[Мастер]

So what’s the word on Gersasimov?

[g-one]

So what’s the word on Gersasimov?

Is that the guy from Gorod Zero ?

[Richard A]

Guess who's back



SMERSH unit revived in Russia

I didn't know SMERSH had actually existed outside the imagination of Ian Fleming. But it appears from the report that it did only for a few years during World War II. But yeah, the couching of the Ukraine "special military operation" in Russian propaganda in terms of the Great Patriotic War is nothing new.

[Мастер]

But yeah, the couching of the Ukraine "special military operation" in Russian propaganda in terms of the Great Patriotic War is nothing new.

And for what it’s worth, the Great Patriotic War was from 1941 to 1945.

That little bit from 1939 to 1941 is discreetly not mentioned.

[Richard A]

Well, of course, the two gentlemen with the moustaches got on rather better then!

I just did a bit of reading and see that although the Winter War of 1939-40 resulted in the Soviet Union winning territory from Finland, the fact that they did not do better encouraged small moustache to launch Operation Barbarossa. Interesting to speculate what would have happened had Stalin not cast eyes on Finland.

[Heid the Ba]

It's a fahkin' лошадь init.
https://www.businessinsider.com/stalin- ... ?r=US&IR=T

[Мастер]

It’s a horse?

[Heid the Ba]

I make a labias.

[Richard A]

It was interesting to read over some of the posts from just after the invasion. All of us except Мастер took it as a given that Kyiv would fall within days - and I'm not sure even he thought that Kyiv would not only not fall but be considered safe enough for Western leaders to visit.

But Мастер's prediction of a complete disaster for Russia has not transpired either - and we're only 10 months from the US election. We've yet to see the outcome of Trump's various legal battles, which will include the issue of presidential immunity being decided by a Supreme Court many of whose justices he appointed. The state ballots are another matter - if he's unable to run in certain states, that could be a game changer. But if Trump does run and win - and we can be sure that the SVR will once again do everything it can to help him - then the US military aid tap will be switched off. On the other hand, the current 2nd place Republican has said that she regards a weakening of US aid to Ukraine to be a threat to US national security. So if either Biden or Haley is President in a year's time, Putin's plan of complete annexation of Ukraine seems unrealistic, at least for another 4 years.

On the other hand, even with Western help, Ukraine has not pushed Russian troops back home either. So it seems it seems that sooner or later, some kind of settlement is going to have to be reached. Ukraine is not going to get Crimea back, it just isn't. (And as Мастер has pointed out, most people in Crimea don't particularly want that.) And it doesn't seem likely that it will get back all the areas of the Donbas that Russia has captured either. On the other hand, unless Western support seriously dries up, Russia isn't likely to make the serious gains in the south that it had hoped for. So a peace agreement could give Russia Crimea and the the bits of the Donbas that it already has but see a return to Ukraine of the Russian-occupied areas of the south (except Crimea). Those pushing for it could argue that this would not mean Russia has acted with complete impunity since a) it would have to return part of what it has occupied and b) has paid a much higher price both militarily and economically than it anticipated. And from Russia's point of view, not having to maintain a war in Ukraine would free up troops to be stationed in the northwest; although Finnish membership of NATO is something which Russia fully brought upon itself, one can see that the idea a string of US bases along the border makes it nervous.

Another possible scenario: no formal agreement but the current lines get fixed with the two sides still mutually hostile but no longer shelling each other. Essentially the situation in Cyprus between 1974 and 2003.

I guess we'll see.

[Мастер]

It was interesting to read over some of the posts from just after the invasion. All of us except Мастер took it as a given that Kyiv would fall within days - and I'm not sure even he thought that Kyiv would not only not fall but be considered safe enough for Western leaders to visit.

I also expected a quick military victory for Russia, but that they would flunk the occupation - like the USSR in Afghanistan, or the US in Iraq and Afghanistan. We have a rough idea of how many people it takes to occupy a country (there have been some relatively successful examples, and some not-so-successful examples, including the one where Rumsfeld argued it was possible to do it on the cheap). And the Russian invasion force wasn't nearly big enough. I thought, to come in, defeat the Ukrainian military, and drive tanks through downtown Kyiv, sure. But to occupy the country - no.

But Russia didn't even get the quick military victory.

On the comments on American aid, one of the most valuable things the US has been providing is information. The US seems to have sources inside the Russian government, they are getting accurate information, and they are sharing it with Ukraine. If the Ukrainians didn't know the attack was coming right at the beginning at Hostomel airport (because the Americans told them), Kyiv might indeed have fallen quickly.

[Richard A]

Interesting. That Russia, if it did defeat Ukraine, would then flunk the occupation was not something I had thought of. Afghanistan was different - much of it covered in mountains, with porous borders with neighbours through which large amounts of weapons, intelligence and money could flow. Which is why every occupation of it, by anyone, has failed. Iraq similarly - OK, fewer mountains but still porous borders, plus an ideology above and beyond pure nationalism to drive the resistance. After all, the Soviet occupation of not just the various republics themselves but, essentially, Central & Eastern Europe as well worked pretty well. Bombs did not go off in Leipzig; when a soldier kissed goodbye to his mum and his girlfriend in Perm before being sent off to Brno, he could be pretty confident of seeing them again. 1956 did see Soviet casualties in Hungary but that was very much the exception. Even Chechnya stayed under control until Yeltsin.

But anyway, whether due to Western intelligence or whatever, the Russian army did not overrun the majority of Ukraine. So where do we think we will be a year from now? Some reports here have said that the Gaza war helps Russia - by moving the international news cameras away from Ukraine. (A reason for drone strikes on Belgorod?) And it's been a while since Russia has had most of the world voting with it on UN resolutions; in Putin's place, I'd enjoy that. But Gaza cannot go on as long as Ukraine does -and when it's over, Ukraine is liable to be back in the headlines.

[Мастер]

So there is some Russian chap who is claiming that Prigozhin is alive and well, and living on a resort island in Venezuela with Elvis Presley.

Well actually, the Russian chap doesn't say the bit about Elvis Presley, that was added by the writer of the article. He does say the rest, though.

[Richard A]

Have there been any reports of what's happened to those Wagner fighters who weren't on Prigozhin's plane? I mean, we know some of them are in West Africa, but are they continuing under a new leader (few if any leaders are irreplaceable, as the US, Israel and others have often found out), have they been incorporated into the official Russian armed forces or what? And what of those who went to Belarus?