On to the Scottish Referendum Mk II

[Arneb]

Nicola Sturgeon just announced the next Scottish independence referendum will bei held on October 19, 2023.

I don't know what everyone else is thinking, and I am certainly not deep enough into the ins and outs of British politics and British State law, but instinctively I'd say: 't's not gonna happen. I'd appreciate everyone's thoughts.

[Мастер]

Nicola Sturgeon just announced the next Scottish independence referendum will bei held on October 19, 2023.

I don't know what everyone else is thinking, and I am certainly not deep enough into the ins and outs of British politics and British State law, but instinctively I'd say: 't's not gonna happen. I'd appreciate everyone's thoughts.

Is Nicola Sturgeon sufficiently savvy to avoid what the Tories did on Brexit, and almost did on the first indyref? That is, is she calling this referendum because she knows she’s going to win?

[Richard A]

OK, first point, a lot of the Tories did win on Brexit - unfortunately. Though David Cameron certainly didn't.

I don't know the workings of Nicola Sturgeon's mind. But I think she is definitely savvy to know that if she holds a 2nd referendum and loses again, then that really will be it for a considerable length of time. And listening to a radio call-in show yesterday afternoon on the way to pick up our daughter, it was clear that there are Scots against independence as well as those in favour.

But to Arneb's question, will indyref2 actually happen in October 2023 as she has called for? A good question. Boris Johnson says: absolutely not. But this is coming as no surprise to Sturgeon, who's already prepared a case before the UK Supreme Court to determine whether or not he really can say no. And the judges of the UK Supreme Court have demonstrated that they can be relied on to apply their genuine interpretation of the law, not what they see as political expediency. Whether the Scottish Executive, or even the Scottish Parliament, has the legal authority under the Scotland Act to call an independence referendum without the agreement of Westminster, though, I don't know. But at least, as I say, the UK Supreme Court has a record of looking to the law for answers rather than the submissions of the Daily Mail, Daily Express et al.

But one commentator has said that even a victory in the UK Supreme Court would not be great for the UK Government: it would effectively say that Scotland's elected government does not have the power to call a referendum on independence, which would cause a political storm of its own. Already, Nicola Sturgeon has said that if she loses in the Supreme Court, the SNP will go into the next general election (probably in the 2nd half of 2024) on a single issue: leading Scotland to independence. Although that's not quite as radical as the Catalan approach of just holding a referendum anyway (although note that Police Scotland answers to Edinburgh, not London - we don't have a National Police as Spain does), it would still up the stakes.

So stand by to watch even Tories start to argue the case not just against a 2nd referendum but for Scotland remaining in the Union. Labour and the Lib Dems have both already begun, with their supporters in Scotland arguing that the terms of independence this time will be different - no combination of EU membership and keeping the pound. Of course, even last time round, if the vote had gone Yes, Scotland wouldn't have got to join the EU one hour after independence - it would have taken a bit longer than that. But that raises an interesting question for Arneb. There was an article in the Irish Times recently said that in the eyes of the EU, Brexit is past history now and attention is focused on the east. That's certainly true in respect of London, but would a Scottish bid for EU membership also be met with, "well, sorry, we have more urgent matters to deal with than you right now". Another report I saw said that the Albanian leader had reacted to the EU statement on Ukrainian accession with, "Congratulations, but don't hold your breath - we've been waiting 8 years now and North Macedonia 12." I would have thought there would be very good political reasons for the EU to allow an independent Scotland to jump the queue - apart from anything else, it would solve the Northern Ireland problem, since most of the boats arriving in Belfast and Larne come from Cairnryan. (Ooh, Northern Ireland becoming a UK Kaliningrad - I kind of like that!) But as I say, it would be good to hear the views of Arneb and other EU Illuminati.

[Halcyon Dayz, FCD]

It should be much easier for Scotland to meet the qualifications for EU membership. after all most of that is (or until recently was) already in place.

[Мастер]

It should be much easier for Scotland to meet the qualifications for EU membership. after all most of that is (or until recently was) already in place.

Yes, and given how royally the UK pissed off the rest of the EU, they might just admit Scotland out of spite.

My attitude during the first referendum was, it’s not my business, it’s up to the people involved to decide what they want to do.

Now a person whose entire experience of Scotland consists of a stopover in Edinburgh airport in March, is now very much for a “yes” vote.

[Richard A]

You know, Mactep, although I've spent a bit more time in Scotland than that - though my only experience of Scottish airports is of Prestwick, not Edinburgh - I very much agree with you. Last time round, I thought it was none of my business. I suppose there's something to the argument that it's none of my business this time either, but I do hope that indyref2 makes it.

That said - although this, too, is no longer any of my business - I do hope that North Macedonia gets its membership soon. Every hoop that Athens - and let's be clear, the EU stipulations on this have been at Athens's bidding - has thrown them, they have duly jumped through. So I think they've earned it.

[Heid the Ba]

It should be much easier for Scotland to meet the qualifications for EU membership. after all most of that is (or until recently was) already in place.

We’re doing our best to stay compliant and ignore the parts the Tories are trying to bin.

[Lianachan]

Yeah, should be a simple enough matter for Scotland to rejoin the EU once we escape the clutches of Brexitistan.

[Arneb]

Dear, oh dear.

The Supreme Court just declared indyref II to be something Scotland cannot put into law on her own. I admit that my imaginery inner lawyer tends to agree (if it affects the whole country, the parliament of the whole country should decide it), but of course, I am far from impartial what with my whole Fraydom and Fuck the Blues attitude.

[Richard A]

Arneb, you do know you're quoting the British King, don't you. (For those on this thread, who missed this lovely incident during Liz Truss's brief term as Prime Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRoxNbUPips.)

But Nicola Sturgeon has made it clear from the start that there was a Plan B. So stand by to see both sides arguing the case for/against the Union in preparation for the next election. And of course Sir Keir Starmer has made even more sure Labour won't make any significant gains in Scotland next time round by ruling out any attempt to rejoin the European single market. Yes, I am aware that any application wouldn't necessarily be welcomed with open arms - the point is that Starmer has confirmed it's official Labour policy that they won't even attempt it. And of course, Lianachan and Heid have made it clear how much the Tories are loved in Scotland. So my prediction is, stand by for a particularly massive SNP landslide, with perhaps the Lib Dems picking up the odd seat here and there.

The interesting thing, looking from here, is what happens next. Let us assume that Labour manage a better result in 2024 than Germany just did against Japan. (Which is a warning never to take anything for granted.) South of the Border, especially in the south of England, it seems pretty much guaranteed that Starmer's insistence re. Brexit that what's done is done will cost Labour votes that will go to the Lib Dems. Both are strongly pro- (UK) Union, but at the same time, it would be more awkward for either of them to take quite as blatant a line of "screw what the Scots want!" as the Tories. And if Labour are wiped out in Scotland, then the argument that it needs Scottish seats to win an election - and hence can't let them leave the UK -disappears.

Roll on the election!

[g-one]

Maybe this will just piss off more fence-sitters, who will now be more likely to vote for independence in the next referendum.

[Arneb]

Arneb, you do know you're quoting the British King, don't you.

Why of course I do. I was making a point.

[Lianachan]

Maybe this will just piss off more fence-sitters, who will now be more likely to vote for independence in the next referendum.

Absolutely. Lots of what you’d maybe call “soft no” people do think that it’s up to Scotland to decide, and they’ll not be pleased. Meanwhile, the unionist parties (and media) now find themselves in the tricky situation of arguing that he union is voluntary while we’ve all just clearly seen that it’s apparently up to England if we get a referendum or not....

The British are, after all, now saying “shut up and eat your porridge” to everybody in Scotland. While, of course, England is relying on a tax-grab on Scottish oil to save their economy.....

My views on this judgement and the methods and intents of Nicola Sturgeon, are very close to this.

[Heid the Ba]

Arneb, you do know you're quoting the British King, don't you. (For those on this thread, who missed this lovely incident during Liz Truss's brief term as Prime Minister: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kRoxNbUPips.)

Guard? That’s the Wingnut’s ADC that is.

[g-one]

My views on this judgement and the methods and intents of Nicola Sturgeon, are very close to this.

Lots of angry comments below that one!
The reference to 'greatest and most effective politician' being to Salmond I guess? Will this be bringing some movement to his party?

[Lianachan]

My views on this judgement and the methods and intents of Nicola Sturgeon, are very close to this.

Lots of angry comments below that one!
The reference to 'greatest and most effective politician' being to Salmond I guess? Will this be bringing some movement to his party?

I've not looked at the comments, perhaps I should! Yes it's Salmond, but I very much doubt there'll be any resurgence, unfortunately. He was always a divisive love-him-or-hate-him figure, and the smear campaign the SNP orchestrated where they actually tried to have him imprisoned.... Well, it was thrown out of court as it was obviously manufacured nonsense, but it suits both the SNP and the unionist media to keep him down so he's still very toxic to a large part of the Scottish electorate.

[Lianachan]

Since he was mentioned, here is Alex Salmond being interviewed by Scottish Television about the Supreme Court ruling. We really need him back in charge. The contrast between the SNP response and his is stark, and frightening for those of us who actually want independence.

Watch on youtube.com

[Lianachan]

Nicola Sturgeon just announced the next Scottish independence referendum will bei held on October 19, 2023.

I don't know what everyone else is thinking, and I am certainly not deep enough into the ins and outs of British politics and British State law, but instinctively I'd say: 't's not gonna happen. I'd appreciate everyone's thoughts.

Deja moo. Anybody still voting for the SNP in the expectation of them gaining independence for Scotland is a fucking moron.

[Arneb]

While we wait for events to unfold, here is a little light entertainment: It's not Carnival in Rio, but Düsseldorf will do for our purposes...

[Lianachan]

That’s not Düsseldorf, that’s a photo of Nicola Sturgeon giving her resignation speech.

[Arneb]

Bam!

[Richard A]

Harsh, Lianachan. Perhaps fair, but equally I suspect it wasn't her the Düsseldorfers were thinking of.

As Arneb says, we'll see what happens. I just see the English reports - which currently are focusing on how the issue of same-sex marriage might / might not affect the leadership context.

[Lianachan]

So, my take on the three SNP leader (and then likely first minister) candidates:

Kate Forbes - enthusiasm for independence not too bad, but maybe not in a hurry. Very strong Christian views about things like the controversial GRR bill, same sex marriage, etc, which the media have seized on to try to discredit her. Good track record in her various posts. Intelligent and capable.

Humza Yousef - the Sturgeon continuity candidate. No interest in independence, religious beliefs put him against same sex marriage and GRR but he manages to arrange conflicting appointments to avoid actually voting against anything. Kate Forbes is at least honest about it. Media ignore this, and he is the favoured candidate of the British and SNP establishments as he poses the least threat to UK. Appalling record in his various posts. Sleekit and known as Humza Useless. He will win, as Sturgeon’s husband is (astonishingly) still in post as the head of the SNP and will be administering the vote....

Ash Reagan - wants independence NOW DAMNIT, and has proposals to make it so. Will build bridges with the non-SNP components of the independence movement. Voted against GRR, resigning a ministerial position in order to do so. She is the favourite of the independence movement. Honest, principled, genuinely wants independence. Good record in previous posts. Currently ignored by the media, but will be vilified once they finish ruining Kate Forbes as she represents the only hope Scotland has for independence for the next 20 years.

[Lianachan]

When I said the media were ignoring Ash Regan - well, her campaign launched today..... and I wasn't joking!

[Richard A]

Yes, I see the media have had another swipe at her: I see the Herald (of which I know nothing) report she said in a hustings that she would want a Scottish currency up and running a couple of months after independence but struggled on the detail: https://uk.yahoo.com/news/regan-suffers ... 16643.html. If she did say "a couple of months", well, it took Slovakia a bit longer than that to introduce its own koruna (since replaced by the euro, unlike the Czech one). But she has a point that working out the detail on things like that is what you have civil servants and advisers for.

But the Herald also confirms Lianachan's view of Humza Yousaf. They seem to think Kate Forbes will be the next leader.