On to the Scottish Referendum Mk II

[Lianachan]

Basically, the right-wing press (Daily Mail) are backing Kate Forbes, the left-wing press (Daily Record) are backing Humza Yousaf and everybody is pretending Ash Regan doesn't exist. I doubt it's a coincidence that the unionist press are backing the candidates they are, as they pose no threat of bringing Scottish independence in the coming decades.

[Lianachan]

Current state of the SNP:

[Richard A]

Well, if that's true, maybe Alba could emerge as the new force for independence. Alex Salmond may be a divisive figure, but so was Nigel Farage. While I approved of Brexit rather less than Scottish independence, the fact remains that Farage was an effective political operator. He was kicked out first of the UKIP leadership and then of UKIP altogether and responded by founding the Brexit Party. At which point UKIP very much withered on the vine as the Brexit Party replaced it as the force for Brexit. In 2019, it was the threat of losing ground to the Brexit Party, not UKIP, that influenced the election campaigns of both the Tories and Labour. We still hear from Farage from time to time, although 2020 really did leave his rebranded Reform Party with nowhere to go, but I'd need to resort to Google to see who the current UKIP leader is.

I wonder whether the same might happen with the SNP and Alba. If the SNP really does turn into a bin fire - especially if the combination of the SNP apparatus and the media succeed in getting Hamza Yousuf elected - one or both of the other candidates could join forces with Salmond and build Alba into a political force. Especially Ash Regan as, unlike Forbes, she's out of the SNP cabinet already.

[Arneb]

So Hamza Youssaf it is. Precisely as Lianachan predicted. A SINO (Scoxiteer in Name Only) has made it to the top. If Lianachan's assessment is true, that seems to portend a long and comfy existence of North Britain inside the UK.

[Lianachan]

There are people leaving the SNP in vast numbers now, my wife among them, the last straw having been reached. The SNP are a party of devolution. They are also irretrievably corrupt.

[Richard A]

Yes, the relentless painting of Kate Forbes - the only candidate, as far as I know, who speaks Gaelic - as a homophobe clearly worked. I watched a 10 minute interview with her on STV (thanks to You Tube) in which little else was covered. And one of my colleagues, who did her PhD at Strathclyde, also focused solely on that: "She's a homophobe and she doesn't try to hide it." And as Lianachan also said, Ash Regan was efficiently airbrushed out.

It'll be interesting to see what happens next. From what Lianachan says, Hamza Youssaf will likely prove the SNP's answer to Keir Starmer: a "steady" centrist. Whether he will purge SNP of those he sees as too radical in the way that Starmer continues to work at with Labour remains to be seen. The flood of people leaving the SNP is a decided déjà vu of what happened to Labour under Starmer. The difference is that Alba, although small now, offers such people an alternative; it'll be interesting to see how many of them take it.

In England, with Labour, it's much less clear cut. Not happy about Starmer refusing to consider any attempt to rejoin the European single market? Well, the only real answer is the Lib Dems. But don't count on them to take real action to deal with the inequalities in this country. And the Greens, who have moved from being solely focused on environmental issues to being a more generally progressive party, still remain very much a fringe. We're still some way off any prospect of what Arneb and his compatriots would call a traffic light coalition, even though it would be good for the country.

[Heid the Ba]

I'm quite happy with Yousaf, the best of a bad lot. Forbes is transphobic, and possibly homophobic. As for speaking Gaelic, Yousaf speaks Urdu, which is more widely spoken in these airts than Gaelic. Regan is a TERF who should be thrown out of the party. The problem with a single issue party is that you end up with too many radically different views in it. I would rather have a society I'm happy to be part of rather than independence. I fully accept there are other views and other priorities. I also accept that there may well be a Highlands/Lowlands divide in much of this.

[Lianachan]

I’d rather gain independence ASAFP, as I think it will be easier to build the kind of society we want when we are free of the interference and constraints brought on by only being able to footer with what devolution allows us to.

[Heid the Ba]

Fair point.

[Lianachan]

Well, this should surprise nobody. Conveniently after the leadership election, presumably in order to avoid damaging the continuity candidate.

[Richard A]

Yes, we wondered if it was the real reason for Sturgeon's resignation, that she saw it coming.

[Lianachan]

Current state of the SNP:

Still this.