The price of everything is going up

The Pit of Doom: Flame Wars, Fights and Schoolyard Bullying.
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The price of everything is going up

Postby tubeswell » Tue Feb 15, 2011 4:39 pm

And the government is determined to make life tougher in this regard by spreading rumours:

http://www.parliament.nz/en-NZ/ParlSupp ... -shock.htm

Its a losing battle (apparently).
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Postby Enzo » Wed Feb 16, 2011 5:54 am

Well I don't know your Parlaiment, but our COngress wouldn;t dream of reading anything like a scientific analysis of anything.

I fear a day when we aim this giant military of ours at some oil resources not within our borders to "protect" it.

And we then bump head-on into the CHinese.
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Postby Мастер » Wed Feb 16, 2011 6:26 am

Enzo wrote:I fear a day when we aim this giant military of ours at some oil resources not within our borders to "protect" it.


IMO, that day is called "every day".

Is it a good idea? The US has piss poor relations with Iran, and yet Iranian oil reaches the world market just as it did under the shah. You don't have to look hard to find those who say the 2003 invasion of Iraq was "to get the oil"; if that's true, then it was vastly more expensive than just buying it. (FWIW, since Gulf War I, the US and UK had been trying hard to prevent Iraqi oil from reaching the world market, and Iraq had been trying hard to get it to the world market.) Venezuelan oil still reaches the world market, despite relations between the two countries being so poor that the US even went so far as to express support for a coup attempt there.

Enzo wrote:And we then bump head-on into the CHinese.


Would this be inside the borders of China (not too much oil there), or would the Chinese have their military somewhere outside their borders for some reason? :P

Near-term, I wouldn't worry about it too much - the Chinese haven't even been able to get Taiwan back so far. Long term, maybe, although the wisdom of resource wars seems rather questionable to me. China gets its oil by buying it, not by military conquest, and they've been posting one of the highest economic growth rates in the world for decades now.

There was some study a while ago that argued that the cost of US military presence in the middle east vastly exceeded any possible economic benefit, leaving aside any question of propriety. I'll see if I can find it. I think it was a Cato Institute report, which may raise questions about objectivity. But let me see if I can find it anyway.
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Postby Enzo » Thu Feb 17, 2011 3:43 am

I claim no expertise.

I think about the USA wanting to sit on the sources of oil. We may not import much oil from Iraq, but if say Brazil all of a sudden wanted it all, they would have to displace our forces to do it against our will, for example. Not saying we'd stop them, but we leave our armies in place so we could if we wanted.

Not thinking we would invade China or anything silly, but as CHina grows and grows, it becomes more and more a global power and it competes for resources we always rather took for granted here. There was a time when whatever we wanted to do, we pretty much did. Now there are other grownup kids on the playing field. General Motors sells more cars in China than they do here.
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Postby KLA2 » Thu Feb 17, 2011 4:03 am

Enzo wrote: General Motors sells more cars in China than they do here.


They do? :shock: I hate to go all BAUT on you, but can you back that up with some references?

Sadly I fear China will soon sell more cars here (North America) than General Motors. Unless India edges them out. Their $2,500 cars are firing up the industry.

http://content.usatoday.com/communities ... ghtmare-/1
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Postby Мастер » Thu Feb 17, 2011 7:04 am

Enzo wrote:but if say Brazil all of a sudden wanted it all


Well, they could buy it. That's how pretty much every country in the world that needs to import oil gets it, including the US. I don't know that there is any place with money that has trouble getting oil, troops or not. and it doesn't seem to me like US consumers get a special deal on oil because they have an army in the middle east.

It wouldn't surprise me if American oil companies got a special deal because of these troops, and certainly countries, not just the US, have flexed military muscle to protect commercial influence. But it seems to me in the modern world, the presence or absence of a robust military doesn't seem to have much influence on how much oil you get. If you want oil, you buy it.
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Postby Halcyon Dayz, FCD » Thu Feb 17, 2011 9:45 am

Oil is a strategic resource because a large modern military and the economy necessary to support and pay for it are so very dependent on it.

As Mactep says, you don't have to own it as long as it flows freely.
The original rational for US involvement in the Middle East was to ensure it kept flowing freely, i.e. to keep the Soviets from taking control if it.
Hardly an imaginary threat at the time.
By the time the Cold War ended the US was so involved with regional politics they probably didn't even consider pulling out.
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I still don't know why the US leadership was so eager to invade Iraq.

Perhaps it was just schoolyard psychology at work.
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Postby Мастер » Thu Feb 17, 2011 2:26 pm

Halcyon Dayz, FCD wrote:I still don't know why the US leadership was so eager to invade Iraq.


Just my opinion, no particular insight or inside information here, but I suspect it was pretty much what we saw on the face - the neoconservative ideology - install a new government in Iraq, and within a few years, from Rabat to Tehran, judges would be wearing powdered wigs and parliamentarians would be calling each other right honourable gentlemen or whatever it is they do. Many of El Bush's circle had wanted to knock over the Iraqi government for a long time, the 9/11 attacks created the environment in which they could sell the project successfully.

Halcyon Dayz, FCD wrote:The original rational for US involvement in the Middle East was to ensure it kept flowing freely, i.e. to keep the Soviets from taking control if it.
Hardly an imaginary threat at the time.


I guess we could envision a situation in which the US and allies are in a great existential struggle against China and allies, but I feel like we're at least a couple of decades away from that. Perhaps we will run out of breathable air first . . .
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Postby Enzo » Fri Feb 18, 2011 1:58 am

Everyone can buy oil now, I guess I was thinking a few decades down the road, when India and China are more fully westernized and competing for that oil a lot harder than now, the Cheneys and RUmsfelds of the world, at least our USA ones, might not be fully willing to keep their mitts off that free commerce.

You don't have to own it as long as if flows freely, fine, but when the demand for it blossoms further, will it be as easy to get it to flow your way?

Why did we attack Iraq? I am fully convinced it was W.Bush trying to save his daddy's name. I think he came into office with plans to take out Saddam from day one. HAd it not been for the first Gulf war, Iraq would never have occurred to W. As you say, 9/11 was just a convenient hook to hang it on.
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Postby Мастер » Fri Feb 18, 2011 2:52 am

Enzo wrote:Everyone can buy oil now, I guess I was thinking a few decades down the road, when India and China are more fully westernized and competing for that oil a lot harder than now, the Cheneys and RUmsfelds of the world, at least our USA ones, might not be fully willing to keep their mitts off that free commerce.

You don't have to own it as long as if flows freely, fine, but when the demand for it blossoms further, will it be as easy to get it to flow your way?


No, you will probably have to pay a lot more.

There is the sort of thing that Halcyon Dayz refers to, although it seems to me a certain level of force from the other side is required for that - why would the people who have the oil, voluntarily sell it to China, if the US is willing to pay more? I would think they would only do this if China "persuades" them to do so.

I don't know if this scenario is likely to play out. Arabs have been sending out a pretty convincing message that they don't make good pets - they fight back a little too much. So I feel like the price of oil would have to go up a lot before cost(getting oil by force)<cost(getting oil with money). And if it goes up a lot, then alternative sources of energy will become much more viable.

But, no hard analysis behind this, this is just off-the-top-of-the-head thinking. It might be rubbish.

Enzo wrote:Why did we attack Iraq? I am fully convinced it was W.Bush trying to save his daddy's name. I think he came into office with plans to take out Saddam from day one. HAd it not been for the first Gulf war, Iraq would never have occurred to W. As you say, 9/11 was just a convenient hook to hang it on.


As per above, in full agreement on everything, except the root cause (and I won't take issue with yours, because I have no evidence for mine, it is just my opinion). But if the goal was to save daddy's name, then I think daddy probably liked his name a lot better before it got saved.
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Postby tubeswell » Fri Feb 18, 2011 5:02 am

Mactep wrote:... if the goal was to save daddy's name, then I think daddy probably liked his name a lot better before it got saved.


Pappy? (sorry for my slowness)
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Postby Мастер » Fri Feb 18, 2011 6:16 am

The quote is from me, not Enzo, although I was very closely paraphrasing an earlier post by Enzo. But I believe "name" was intended here in the sense of "reputation".
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Postby Enzo » Fri Feb 18, 2011 6:29 pm

Our previous president George W. Bush is the son of George H.W. Bush who was our president during the first Gulf War.

I myself regard the son as more or less a chimpanzee who rose to a higher level than he should have. The "Peter Principal" at work. In my view the son considered the behavior of Saddam as somehow a slap in the face to the father. And he was gonna go get that sumbitch.


I agree, I don't think the father is all that pleased with the gesture.
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Postby tubeswell » Fri Feb 18, 2011 10:43 pm

Having studied primatology in my first degree years ago, I consider it insulting to compare dubya to a chimapnzee. Chimps are highly intelligent.
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Postby Enzo » Fri Feb 18, 2011 11:15 pm

I humbly apologize. Somewhere I have a page of side by side photos of a chimp and W, in each case sporting the same expression. I always wondered if W did the pant-hoot.
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Postby Enzo » Fri Feb 18, 2011 11:17 pm

KLA2, raise your visor and read this from the LA Times

http://articles.latimes.com/2011/jan/25 ... m-20110125

It tells of GM Chia sales exceeding domestic. Hey, China got a billion more people than we do, and some of them gonna want Buicks.
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Postby KLA2 » Sat Feb 19, 2011 1:50 am

'Kay. Don't need to go postal on me, two eyes. :P
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Postby Мастер » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:19 am

KLA2 wrote:'Kay. Don't need to go postal on me, two eyes. :P


I think the runway of St. Petersburg's second, abandoned airport, was now a parking lot for the GM dealership. But I might be mistaken.
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Postby tubeswell » Sat Feb 19, 2011 4:35 am

Enzo wrote:I humbly apologize. Somewhere I have a page of side by side photos of a chimp and W, in each case sporting the same expression. I always wondered if W did the pant-hoot.


Gotcha! :D

(I s'pose I should've said "chimps are more intelligent - for starters" ) :wink:
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Postby Lianachan » Wed Mar 02, 2011 9:11 am

The US could come and liberate us from our southern oppressors if they like. We have oil. We produce more oil than Kuwait.
A-nis bidh fios aig daoine nuair a tha mi a 'mionnachadh aig dhaibh.
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