What sports teams do you support?

[KLA2]

And Canuckistan and Japan tied.

Would that be "Communist Canuckistan" as Fox News would have it?

A little respect, please. I think we have earned it.

[Мастер]

Would that be "Communist Canuckistan" as Fox News would have it?

Definitely not. They would have lost to Japan.

A little respect, please. I think we have earned it.

So, Canada played well, although they really should have beaten Japan.

[Мастер]

Congratulations Georgia!

Eight matches remaining. Every team that has played four times, has been eliminated :) Canada is going to have to smoke New Zealand to stay alive (I think the opposite outcome is the more likely); Scotland is still in it.

No action until South Africa vs. Samoa on Friday.

[Heid the Ba]

Scotland is barely still in it, we threw away the game on Sunday. Why Robinson brought Parks on is beyond me and why Parks went for the drop goal when the ref was playing an advantage is beyond me. Fuck Parks with a big fucky thing.

The Scotland - England game on saturday morning will be problematic, I can't watch it sober and it is first thing in the morning. Probably best if I go for a run and check the score when I get back.

Other than that, we had wins for Rangers, the Pack and Mark Cavendish so not the worst weekend.

I do still have the Hertha game to watch though . . .

[Мастер]

The Scotland - England game on saturday morning will be problematic, I can't watch it sober and it is first thing in the morning.

Watch it here, it's on at 4:30 in the afternoon.

[Heid the Ba]

Excellent plan! :D

[Arneb]

Bremen - Hertha was rather painful. Don't. The one gainst Dortmund, however .... :D

Oh, Dortmund

Marseille 3 - 0 Dortmund, CL first round.
They seem to be on the way to becoming a one-hit wonder. Sigh.

WRT England - Scotland, could you just have a long nap Friday afternoon and then drink through the night? If Scotland lose, that would go along perfectly with throwing-up time.

[Мастер]

Samoa's got some life after all!

[Мастер]

Excellent plan! :D

Oops, my mistake, it is 3:30, not 4:30. What's your flight?

[Мастер]

Samoa's got some life after all!

But not enough.

If Wales scores no points in their next match, they and Samoa will have 10 points each. I'm not sure where they stand on the tie-breaking criteria.

South Africa and New Zealand guaranteed to advance; Tonga, Japan, Georgia, Romania, USA, Russia, and Namibia are out.

England/Scotland is the one to watch.

[Heid the Ba]

Excellent plan! :D

Oops, my mistake, it is 3:30, not 4:30. What's your flight?

Damn, that is just a bit too tight. I'll have to stay here, I'm planning to not watch it, it will be a turgid game where England grind out a win.

Something to remember about the competition, and I hate to say this, but England have been in the last two finals and when they won it no-one gave them a chance as they were too old and the All blacks were the hot favourites as it was in the Southern Hemisphere.

[Мастер]

Excellent plan! :D

Oops, my mistake, it is 3:30, not 4:30. What's your flight?

Damn, that is just a bit too tight. I'll have to stay here, I'm planning to not watch it, it will be a turgid game where England grind out a win.

I think you'd probably have to leave straight away. There's a place out by the airport (on the beach) where we could watch, that would save some time.

Something to remember about the competition, and I hate to say this, but England have been in the last two finals and when they won it no-one gave them a chance as they were too old and the All blacks were the hot favourites as it was in the Southern Hemisphere.

If you're okay with gerrymandering, England has been in three of the last five finals and won one, New Zealand has been in one of the last five and won none :P But taking all six world cups, New Zealand has won once, come in second once, third twice, and fourth once. England has won once, come in second twice, and fourth once. Scotland managed fourth in 1991.

[Arneb]

Heid, what about my suggestion?

[Мастер]

Heid, what about my suggestion?

England/Scotland looks like the one to watch. Argentina plays Georgia Sunday, they will probably win, and end up with at least 14 points, maybe 15. England is leading the pool now, but if they lose in the match today (eleven hours from now), they could drop to third by Sunday.

To a lesser extent, Ireland/Italy on Sunday matters.

Canada could theoretically reach the knock out stage, but to do so would require defeating New Zealand, and France losing to Tonga. Bit of a long shot.

[Мастер]

Actually, looks like all seven remaining matches matter in some way, it's just that one particular outcome seems much more likely than another for quite a few of them.

[tubeswell]

Yep, it ain't over till the fat lady sings

[Мастер]

As expected, Russia went down before Australia, although it wasn't quite as humiliating as I thought it might be . . .

Canada needs France to lose to Tonga (starting in a few minutes), then they need to defeat New Zealand themselves tomorrow. I fear it is not looking good for Canada . . .

Scotland really needs to perform today. I wouldn't count on Argentina losing to Georgia . . .

[Мастер]

Heid, your noble Tongan brothers are ahead of France! Canada may have a chance after all.

[Мастер]

Well Heid, if you're there, Scotland 9-3 England at the half.

Your noble Tongan brothers got back at Canada, by defeating France, but not so badly that Canada would still have a chance. They're out.

[Мастер]

The Bungy Bar seems to have mostly an England crowd, bit there's a big Scotland group right next to me.

[Мастер]

Heid, you might want to avoid the news for a bit!

Scotland can still advance, if Argentina loses to Georgia tomorrow. In that case, Scotland would face the All Blacks in the knockout stage.

[Arneb]

I suppose Heid is off drowning his sorrow in whatever beverage is handy.

Back to the smaller stage,

Hertha 3 - 0 Cologne FC

is a doubly pleasant, as Hertha give my tormented, frightened soul a bit of rest AND I really hate Cologne.

[Мастер]

I suppose Heid is off drowning his sorrow in whatever beverage is handy.

Scotland can still advance, but it requires the rather unlikely event of Argentina losing to Georgia. So far, Georgia has only beaten Romania.

[Мастер]

Argentine beat Georgia, so Scotland is out. Sorry, Heid.

So:

Pool A: New Zealand and France advance. New Zealand playing Canada now, but it's just for pride.

Pool B: England and Argentina advance. All matches played.

Pool C: I'm not sure exactly how the tie-breaking system works. It is almost certain that Australia will advance, but if Italy beats Ireland and scores the bonus point, but with Ireland also scoring two bonus points (which I think is possible), then all three teams will have 15 points, and then the tie-breaking criteria would apply. Any other outcome, and Australia advances. If Ireland wins or draws, they advance. It Italy wins but fails to score the bonus point, and Ireland scores a bonus point, then they'll both have 14, and the tie-breaking criteria would apply. Pool C is a mess.

Pool D: South Africa advances for sure. The only outcomes in which Wales might not also advance require that they lose by more than seven points today to Fiji, and not score any bonus points. If that happens, then there will either be a two-way tie (Wales and Samoa) at 10 points each, or a three-way tie (Wales and Samoa and Fiji), also at 10 points each. The tie-breaking criteria would apply then. Pool D a bit of a mess too.

[tubeswell]

Dan Carter (AB's veteran fullback) is out for the rest of the tournament with a crippled hamstring. Hopefully his replacement will be on the mark more with his conversions and penalty kicks. (Note that this competition is unquestionably a male-dominated competition, and that not really anyone has questioned that at this stage).