Heid the Ba' wrote:It is a truncated compertition this year because of the World Cup isn't it? NZ should win the whole thing.
That's correct. Ever since Argentina joined the club in 2012, each of the four teams has played each of the others twice, for a total of twelve matches. This year, they play each other team only one, for a total of six matches. Three of those have now been played, another starts in a few hours.
New Zealand may well win the whole thing, but it's far from a done deal at this point. They have nine points (won both matches so far, so four points each, and scored four tries in the first match, earning a bonus point). They have one match remaining, against Australia. So to win the tournament, you need at least nine points.
Argentina can still win it. They lost the first match, no bonus points, and therefore have zero points. They can still earn ten points by winning both their remaining matches, and scoring a bonus point in each. New Zealand would have to lose to Australia in this scenario. So Argentina beats Australia today, and also beats South Africa in two weeks, and Australia beats New Zealand in two weeks. At least one bonus point would also be required for Argentina.
South Africa cannot win it. They have lost both their matches so far, but earned two bonus points. The best they can hope for is to beat Argentina in two weeks, and earn the bonus point - that gives them eight points. New Zealand already has nine.
Australia can still win it. For example, they could beat Argentina in a few hours, and New Zealand in a few weeks, which would give them at least twelve points, beating New Zealand, which would have at most ten in this scenario. Some other winning scenarios for Australia are possible.
New Zealand can still win it. If they beat Australia in two weeks, no one else can touch them. But there are other winning scenarios as well.