Illuminati-R-Us

Heid the Ba wrote:I would suggest there will be comfortable wins for Ireland, Japan, NZ and France.

France quite handily defeats the US, earning the bonus point.

Table points in Pool C, with half of all matches played:

England: 10
France: 9
Argentina: 6
Tonga: 0
United States: 0

It is theoretically wide open. Either Tonga and United States could advance, although these outcomes are not likely. Also, either England or France could fail to advance.

We should have some more clarity on 5 October, with England v Argentina. Realistically, this is a must win for Argentina. If they fail to win, their only hope is for Tonga to defeat France the next day.

New Zealand have won the bonus point while playing Canada, and it's not even half time yet.

Is it inappropriate to call a match before half time?

New Zealand 28 - 0 Canada at the half.

Highest score in the tournament so far, and still twenty minutes to go.

New Zealand 63 - 0 Canada

And the final is, New Zealand 63 - 0 Canada.

Table points for Pool B, now that half of the matches have been played:

Italy: 10
New Zealand: 9
South Africa: 5
Canada: 0
Namibia: 0

It is still theoretically possible for any of these five teams to advance. In fact, out of the twenty teams in the entire tournament, none of them have been eliminated yet. I do not expect that to last long. Tomorrow, we have Georgia - Fiji in Pool D, which could quite easily result in the elimination of Fiji. But if it doesn't, then Russia will probably have the honour of being the first team to be eliminated when they face Ireland a few hours later in Pool A.

I think Pool B will change quickly, Italy will lose their last two, NZ and SA will win theirs and both go through.

Heid the Ba wrote:I think Pool B will change quickly, Italy will lose their last two, NZ and SA will win theirs and both go through.

I think that's most likely, although maybe there is a slim possibility Italy will defeat South Africa. This did happen in 2016, the only one of Italy's victories against SA, compared to thirteen defeats.

Georgia 10 - 45 Fiji

This bonus point victory for Fiji leaves Pool D wide open. None of the teams have been eliminated. Russia in Pool A will probably be the first in a few hours.

Ireland 35 - 0 Russia

Russia have the honour of being the first team eliminated.

The other four teams, Ireland, Scotland, Japan, and Samoa, can all still advance, and all can come in fourth (and therefore fail to qualify for 2023).

We should know more in two days when Japan and Samoa play.

Tomorrow we have South Africa v Italy. Realistically, this is a must-win for South Africa.

The Saffers should be too good, they'll out muscle Italy up front.

Heid the Ba wrote:The Saffers should be too good, they'll out muscle Italy up front.

I expect they will also. But if they don't, the Saffers only hope is for New Zealand to lose to both Namibia and Italy (and for a bunch of other things to happen).

That's not a situation I'd like to be in.

Fucking fuckity fuck. Could have won, gave them a soft injury time winner.

Young Boys (no really) 2 - 1 Rangers

Played 50, won 29, drawn 6, lost 15

Bad luck or cute trick that both Italy's tightheads went down injured so it was uncontested scrums for most of the game?

49 - 3. I don’t think it changed the ultimate outcome.

Table points:

South Africa: 10
Italy: 10
New Zealand: 9
Namibia: 0
Canada: 0

New Zealand and Italy still play, and regardless of the outcome, someone will have more than 10 table points. Namibia and Canada each have two matches left, so the best they can hope for is to tie South Africa for second place. Namibia and Canada still habe to play each other, so they cannot both get 10 table points.

If it is a two-way tie, the tie-breaker is, who won the match between the two teams. Canada and South Africa still have to play, so Canada could, in theory at least, advance on this basis.

Namibia have already lost to South Africa, so they cannot advance in a two-way tie. They only ways they can advance are if it is a three-way tie for second place between South Africa, Italy, and Namibia, or South Africa, New Zealand, and Namibia.

So all five teams still have a theoretical chance to advance, but they are quite incredible scenarios for Canada and Namibia. Realistically, this is a fight between New Zealand, South Africa, and Italy.

So Мастер’s prediction is, New Zealand first, South Africa second, Italy eliminated but qualifying for 2023, and Canada and Namibia eliminated and not qualified for 2023. Which is exactly the prediction I would have made before the first six matches were played

Speaking of which, if the past tense of “say” is “said”, then I think the past tense of “play” should be “plaid”.

Sure, bu it's not pronunced "pledd", now is it.

Meanwhile, in a forlorn corner of the world,

Hertha BSC 3 - 1 Fortuna Düsseldorf

which makes this Auld Auntie's third win in a row and the first against the Neanderthasl in 40 years. 10 points off 7 matches now, hail mid-table mediocrity! Auld Auntie must have taken steroids, or, worse, sherry. She acquires a mean streak when she does that, I'm telling you.

Played 51, won 30, drawn 6, lost 15

Pool D finally sorting itself out, with a bonus point victory by Australia.

Australia 45 - 10 Uruguay

Table points:

Australia: 11
Wales: 9
Fiji: 7
Georgia: 5
Uruguay: 4

Wales and Fiji still to play, which means, regardless of outcome, one of the two teams will have at least 11 table points. Georgia and Uruguay, each with one match remaining, cannot match this, and are now eliminated.

So it is now a three-way race between Wales, Australia, and Fiji. Most likely outcome, in my opinion, is Wales first, Australia second, Fiji third (therefore eliminated, but qualifying for 2023).

England v Argentina in Pool C coming up within the hour.

England 15 - 3 Argentina at the half.

Three tries for England, all with missed kicks. One more for the bonus point.

If England win, everyone in the pool (England, Argentina, France, United States, and Tonga) is still alive. However, I would expect Argentina, United States, and Tonga all to be eliminated simultaneously tomorrow when France play Tonga.

Another try for England - that makes the bonus point.

England 39 - 10 Argentina

This bonus point victory for England make them the first team in the tournament to be guaranteed to advance to the knock-out stage, although we do not yet know whether that will be as the winner of Pool C or as the runner-up.

The other team that advances could, at this point, be any one of France, Argentina, United States, or Tonga. However, tomorrow, France play Tonga, and a French victory would simultaneously eliminate the other three. If this is what happens (which seems likely), then the winner of England v France one week from today is the winner of the pool, and the loser is the runner-up.

Japan v Samoa up in less than one hour. Although Japan would be leading the pool if they win, this still does not guarantee that they advance - they could still come in behind Scotland and Ireland. But Samoa needs, at an absolute minimum, to score a bonus point to keep hope alive.

Japan 16 - 9 Samoa at the half.

Japan 38 - 19 Samoa

Bonus point for Japan, not for Samoa. Table points for Pool A:

Japan: 14
Ireland: 11
Scotland: 5
Samoa: 5
Russia: 0

Samoa join Russia in being eliminated. However, no one in this pool is guaranteed to advance at this point.

Tomorrow brings us New Zealand v Namibia in Pool B, and France v Tonga in Pool C.

SpVgg only trailing Hamburg, the former Champions Cup winner now playing in the Second League, by one goal to nil. Hate to say it, but it'S probably better for the family life for us to lose this; the Hamburg in-laws have been through a lot in the last few years. Their club has given them more shit than Herha and SpVgg ever could, so weÄll not trample on their tormented souls, shall we.

Hamburger Sportverein 2 - 0 SpVgg Greuther Fürth

Again, its better for the family mood. And HSV being a sky-high favourite to win the League (with this victory, they take the top spot), these weren't points anyone at Ronhof was counting on.

Played 52, won 30, drawn 6, lost 16

It all starts in a few minutes.

I expect it to be a bloodbath today, with four more teams eliminated before it is over.