Illuminati-R-Us

New Zealand 24 - 9 Namibia at the half.

New Zealand have four tries (but only two conversions), therefore securing the bonus point.

To have the slimmest hope of survival, Namibia must not only win, but also score the bonus point, and they have zero tries as of half time.

New Zealand 71 - 9 Namibia final. New Zealand only scored eleven tries in this match, producing the highest score in the tournament so far.

Pool B table points:

New Zealand: 14
South Africa: 10
Italy: 10
Canada: 0
Namibia: 0

Namibia now eliminated. All the four other teams can still advance, but Canada hang on by the most slender of threads. To advance, Canada need to defeat South Africa, score the bonus point, and prevent South Africa from scoring any bonus points. They also need New Zealand to defeat Italy, and prevent Italy from scoring any bonus point (OK, that part is quite likely). And then, Canada need to defeat Namibia and score the bonus point. And if all that happens, then they are in a three-way tie for second place with South Africa and Italy, which means the tie-breaker is the point difference. South Africa is currently at +90, and Canada at -104, so Canada would need to defeat South Africa by at least 97 points. Every point they come short of this mark, must be made up by a two point difference in the Namibia v Canada match. Needless to say, this is a very extraordinary scenario.

None of the four teams are guaranteed to advance at this point, but I am going with New Zealand in first place, South Africa in second, and Italy in third (therefore eliminated, but qualifying for 2023). Namibia and Canada will slug it out for last place in the final match of the pool.

France v Tonga in Pool C next. A French victory will guarantee that France advance (along with England, who are already guaranteed), and simultaneously take Tonga, United States, and Argentina out of the tournament.

France 17 - 7 Tonga at the half. Tonga are not dead yet.

France 20 - 14 Tonga with twenty minutes to go. This will really shake things up if Tonga win.

France 23 - 21 Tonga - much closer than I thought!

Table points in Pool C:

England: 15
France: 13
Argentina: 6
Tonga: 1
United States: 0

France now guaranteed to advance, along with England. They will play each other, which will determine who is the winner and who is the runner-up. Draws go to England.

Argentina, United States, and Tonga all eliminated now. United States will play both of the other teams, and can still dislodge Argentina from third place, thereby qualifying for 2023. Tonga cannot qualify, the best they can do is come in fourth.

Seven matches out of ten now played in each pool. England and France guaranteed to advance. Russia, Samoa, Namibia, Argentina, United States, Tonga, Georgia and Uruguay now eliminated. The remaining ten teams are Japan, Ireland, Scotland, New Zealand, South Africa, Italy, Canada, Wales, Australia, and Fiji. Six of these teams will advance, four will be eliminated.

No matches Monday, but there will be more rugby on Tuesday.

Thanks a lot International Man of Mystery! None of my preferred media channels are covering this, so your comment is always a worthwhile read.

Rangers 5 - 0 Hamilton
Our performing midget scored a hat trick, oddly in his fifty or so games for England or the four hundred odd game in the English top division no-one noticed he is only 5’ 7” but I keep hearing he’s too wee for Scottish fitba’.

If I may add:
RCC 2 - 2 St Johnstone

Played 54, won 31, drawn 7, lost 16

We are properly top of the league for the first time in years, I’m sure we have been since we came back up but only if we had played more games or were an early kickoff and only top until it all unwound.
Ross County have 12 points from eight games and are fifth well away from relegation though there is a long way to go yet.

Tomorrow, we have South Africa v Canada in Pool B.

To stay alive, Canada must defeat South Africa, win the bonus point, and keep South Africa from winning any bonus point.

To stay alive, South Africa must - well, show up? I don't think they even have to do that.

To guarantee they advance, South Africa must win and score the bonus point.

History suggests that Canada will be eliminated, and South Africa may well clinch a spot in the knock-out stage.

Wednesday, we have Scotland v Russia in Pool A.

Russia have already been eliminated, but a bonus point victory (not likely) keeps them alive for 2023 qualification.

To stay alive, Scotland need to score at least two table points - so win, draw, or lose with both bonus points. It is even still possible for Scotland to come in first in the pool, but I do not consider this a likely outcome.

My prediction is that Scotland win, with the bonus point, making it

Japan: 14
Ireland: 11
Scotland: 10
Samoa: 5
Russia: 0

This outcome would secure last place for Russia, and fourth place for Samoa, even if Samoa do well against Ireland. Then it is up to Ireland v Samoa and Japan v Scotland to determine who is first, who is second, and who is third.

Wednesday, we have Argentina v United States in Pool C.

Since both teams, as well as Tonga, are already eliminated, the significance of this match is who comes in third, thereby qualifying for 2023.

Argentina can clinch this qualification by winning, drawing with the bonus point, or drawing with the United States not getting the bonus point.

Any other outcome still gives United States a possibility to come in third.

Argentina losing and not receiving the bonus point also leaves an incredibly convoluted scenario in which Tonga could come in third.

Wednesday, we have Wales v Fiji in Pool D.

This is a must win for Fiji - even a draw leaves them eliminated, meaning Australia and Wales both advance.

Anything short of a bonus point win for Fiji means Australia is guaranteed to advance.

Wales are still alive, regardless of the outcome.

Scotland are putting the B team out for Russia but should be good enough to get five points.

Heid the Ba wrote:Scotland are putting the B team out for Russia but should be good enough to get five points.

The bonus point could be important.

If Ireland defeat Samoa and score the bonus point, they have 16 table points. Scotland cannot beat that. But, if they win against Russia, and only score four table points, then they have 9, and Japan have 14. That means scoring the bonus point against Japan would be mandatory, and preventing Japan from scoring one would also be mandatory.

Even if Ireland fail to score the bonus point against Samoa, if Scotland fail to do so against Russia, the analysis is the same - Scotland cannot place ahead of Ireland in that case.

So winning the bonus point could be very important.

My understanding is that we need bonus points in both games and with a win we'd have the tie breaker over Japan. We can still fuck up either part, not getting the bonus against Russia and not beating Japan. We are slightly shafted with a quick turnaround against Japan but it is exactly the same as they had four years ago against us.

Heid the Ba wrote:My understanding is that we need bonus points in both games and with a win we'd have the tie breaker over Japan. We can still fuck up either part, not getting the bonus against Russia and not beating Japan. We are slightly shafted with a quick turnaround against Japan but it is exactly the same as they had four years ago against us.

Japan have 14, and Scotland have 9. So two wins plus one bonus point would make Scotland and Japan tied (provided Japan does not score a bonus point), and one of those wins is Scotland over Japan, which is the tie-breaker. (Exception - if Ireland and Samoa draw, and Ireland wins the bonus point, Ireland will also have 14, so it would be a three-way tie, which means the tie-breaker is the point differential, which is 36 points in Japan's favour (which could definitely be overcome, given that points in Scotland-Japan count double, and Scotland have two matches remaining, with one of them against Russia).

If Japan win a bonus point, then Scotland must win both, but still wins the tie-breaker (subject to a three-way exception if Ireland win without a bonus point).

If Japan win both bonus points, even while losing to Scotland, then they are still ahead of Scotland, whose only hope then is that Ireland would lose to or draw with Samoa.

So there are scenarios in which Scotland advance with one bonus point. In fact, if Ireland do not defeat Samoa, then Scotland don't even need to win both matches to advance.

I watched this game with the sound off and was stunned to see a penalty for a crooked feed, which lead to the Japanese bonus point. Turns out I'm not alone.

Heid the Ba wrote:I watched this game with the sound off and was stunned to see a penalty for a crooked feed, which lead to the Japanese bonus point. Turns out I'm not alone.

Aren’t they always crooked?

What is a "feed", and what makes it "crooked", if I may ask?

Arneb wrote:What is a "feed", and what makes it "crooked", if I may ask?

https://www.rugbyworld.com/news/scrum-p ... ined-88838

So this is when the ball is rolled into the scrum. Eight players from each time are locked together with each other, and with eight from the other team. Another player is supposed to roll the ball down the middle. Then the sixteen players in the scrum try to move forward and/or kick the ball back to their team.

The thing is, the player "feeding" the ball into the scrum almost never rolls it down the middle. They always roll it towards one team or the other. Would you like to guess which team they roll it towards?

So this technique, which is always used seemingly with total impunity, incurred a penalty in this case.

Thanks a lot!

In this case the game was over as not-Japan had a scrum which they would win and probably kick the ball out the park. For the first time in decades a ref gave a penalty for a crooked feed, Japan got the ball near the opponents try line, promptly scored and got the bonus point they needed. Them getting the bonus point makes it more likely they get through to the next round, at the expense of Scotland.

Only 18 minutes into the match, and South Africa score the bonus point, meaning their opponent Canada are now eliminated.

Assuming South Africa win (likely), then they are guaranteed to advance. It all comes down to New Zealand v Italy in a few days to see who else advance.

I suspect you'd get long odds on an Italian win.

South Africa 47 - 0 Canada

And that’s the half-time score.