Illuminati-R-Us

And, for what it's worth, who win Pool A will face South Africa in the quarter-final, and who are the runner up will face New Zealand.

I think most teams would prefer to play South Africa, although of course, if you want to win the tournament, you eventually must defeat New Zealand, or someone else who defeated New Zealand.

Qualified: Ireland, New Zealand, South Africa, England, France, Australia, Wales

Eliminated: Samoa, Russia, Italy, Namibia, Canada, Argentina, Tonga, United States, Fiji, Georgia, Uruguay

Uncertain: Japan, Scotland

By pool. Multiple teams indicate an outcome yet to be resolved.

Pool A:
1) Ireland/Japan
2) Ireland/Japan/Scotland
3) Japan/Scotland
4) Samoa
5) Russia

Pool B:
1) New Zealand
2) South Africa
3) Italy
4) Namibia/Canada
5) Namibia/Canada

Pool C:
1) England
2) France
3) Argentina
4) Tonga/United States
5) Tonga/United States

Pool D:
1) Australia/Wales
2) Australia/Wales
3) Fiji/Uruguay
4) Fiji/Georgia/Uruguay
5) Georgia/Uruguay

There are questions about whether Namibia v Canada will be cancelled due to the typhoon. If it is, Namibia come in fourth. Otherwise, whoever wins are fourth. If a draw, whoever get the bonus point are fourth. If a draw and both teams get the bonus point, or neither does, Namibia are fourth.

If United States defeat Tonga, then they are fourth. If Tonga win, or draw, then Tonga are fourth. There is no scenario in which bonus points from the match affect the final ranking.

If Wales defeat Uruguay, draw with them, or lose to them but score both bonus points, Wales are first; otherwise, Australia are first. If Uruguay win, or draw with the bonus point, Uruguay are third, Fiji are fourth, and Georgia are fifth. If Uruguay draw without the bonus point, or lose with both bonus points, Fiji are third, Uruguay are fourth, and Georgia is fifth. If Uruguay lose with one or no bonus points, Fiji are third, Georgia are fourth, and Uruguay are fifth.

Finally, if Japan defeat Scotland, or draw with them, or lose but score both bonus points, Japan are first, Ireland are second, and Scotland are third. If Japan lose with one or no bonus points, then Ireland is first, and Scotland are second, if the score at least as many bounds points as Japan, and Japan are second if they don’t.

All matches are played Sunday, starting a bit over ten hours from now.

And finally, 2023 automatic qualification:

Teams that are automatically qualified: Ireland, Japan, Scotland, New Zealand, South Africa, Italy, England, France, Argentina, Australia, Wales.

Teams that did not qualify: Samoa, Russia, Namibia, Canada, Tonga, United States, Georgia.

Teams that still might automatically qualify: Fiji, Uruguay.

Namibia v Canada cancelled. Both teams have zero table points. However, as Namibia have a point differential of -141, but Canada have a differential of -163, Namibia take fourth place in Pool B, and Canada take fifth.

Pool A:
1) Ireland/Japan
2) Ireland/Japan/Scotland
3) Japan/Scotland
4) Samoa
5) Russia

Pool B:
1) New Zealand
2) South Africa
3) Italy
4) Namibia
5) Canada

Pool C:
1) England
2) France
3) Argentina
4) Tonga/United States
5) Tonga/United States

Pool D:
1) Australia/Wales
2) Australia/Wales
3) Fiji/Uruguay
4) Fiji/Georgia/Uruguay
5) Georgia/Uruguay

If United States defeat Tonga, then they are fourth. If Tonga win, or draw, then Tonga are fourth. There is no scenario in which bonus points from the match affect the final ranking.

If Wales defeat Uruguay, draw with them, or lose to them but score both bonus points, Wales are first; otherwise, Australia are first. If Uruguay win, or draw with the bonus point, Uruguay are third, Fiji are fourth, and Georgia are fifth. If Uruguay draw without the bonus point, or lose with both bonus points, Fiji are third, Uruguay are fourth, and Georgia is fifth. If Uruguay lose with one or no bonus points, Fiji are third, Georgia are fourth, and Uruguay are fifth.

Finally, if Japan defeat Scotland, or draw with them, or lose but score both bonus points, Japan are first, Ireland are second, and Scotland are third. If Japan lose with one or no bonus points, then Ireland is first, and Scotland are second, if the score at least as many bounds points as Japan, and Japan are second if they don’t.

Looks like all matches go ahead, except Namibia v Canada.

Namibia and Canada just finished not playing; the result is a 0 - 0 draw.

United States v Tonga up in a few minutes.

United States 12 - 7 Tonga at the half.

This is the battle for fourth place in Pool C. Draws go to Tonga.

United States 19 - 31 Tonga

Bonus point for Tonga, and they clinch fourth place in Pool C.

Pool A:
1) Ireland/Japan
2) Ireland/Japan/Scotland
3) Japan/Scotland
4) Samoa
5) Russia

Pool B:
1) New Zealand
2) South Africa
3) Italy
4) Namibia
5) Canada

Pool C:
1) England
2) France
3) Argentina
4) Tonga
5) United States

Pool D:
1) Australia/Wales
2) Australia/Wales
3) Fiji/Uruguay
4) Fiji/Georgia/Uruguay
5) Georgia/Uruguay

Two matches remaining in the pool stage, and they are both important.

If Wales defeat Uruguay, draw with them, or lose to them but score both bonus points, Wales are first; otherwise, Australia are first. If Uruguay win, or draw with the bonus point, Uruguay are third, Fiji are fourth, and Georgia are fifth. If Uruguay draw without the bonus point, or lose with both bonus points, Fiji are third, Uruguay are fourth, and Georgia is fifth. If Uruguay lose with one or no bonus points, Fiji are third, Georgia are fourth, and Uruguay are fifth.

If Japan defeat Scotland, or draw with them, or lose but score both bonus points, Japan are first, Ireland are second, and Scotland are third. If Japan lose with one or no bonus points, then Ireland is first, and Scotland are second, if the score at least as many bounds points as Japan, and Japan are second if they don’t.

Wales 7 - 6 Uruguay at the half

So far, Pool D has the only transitivity violation - Fiji beat Georgia, Georgia beat Uruguay, but Uruguay beat Fiji. If Uruguay win this one, there will be more.

There could also be a transitivity violation in Pool A, if Japan do not defeat Scotland.

Wales 35 - 13 Uruguay

Bonus point for Wales, who take first in Pool D, relegating Australia to second. So Wales face France in the quarter-final, and Australia face England.

Uruguay take fifth place in Pool D (they could have ended as high as third before this match), with Fiji in third (qualifying for 2023), and Georgia in fourth.

Pool D has the only transitivity violation so far - Uruguay beat Fiji, Fiji beat Georgia, but Georgia beat Uruguay.

Final match of the pool stage, Japan v Scotland, coming up next.

Pool A:
1) Ireland/Japan
2) Ireland/Japan/Scotland
3) Japan/Scotland
4) Samoa
5) Russia

Pool B:
1) New Zealand
2) South Africa
3) Italy
4) Namibia
5) Canada

Pool C:
1) England
2) France
3) Argentina
4) Tonga
5) United States

Pool D:
1) Wales
2) Australia
3) Fiji
4) Georgia
5) Uruguay

If Japan defeat Scotland, or draw with them, or lose but score both bonus points, Japan are first, Ireland are second, and Scotland are third. If Japan lose with one or no bonus points, then Ireland is first, and Scotland are second, if the score at least as many bounds points as Japan, and Japan are second if they don’t.

Japan 21 - 7 Scotland at the half.

Scotland need to do better. They must win by at least eight points, or win with the bonus point. If Japan get the bonus point (and they already have three tries), Scotland need to win by at least eight points and get the bonus point.

Japan 28 - 7 Scotland with 46 minutes on the clock.

Japan have scored four tries, and win a bonus point.

Scotland now must win by at least eight points, and also must score three more tries, in order to advance. In this case, Ireland are first, Scotland are second, and Japan are third.

If Scotland win by at least eight points, but fail to score three more tries, then Ireland are first, Japan are second, and Scotland are third.

In any other scenario, it is Japan first, Ireland second, and Scotland third.

Japan 28 - 21 Scotland with 22 minutes left.

Scotland haven't given up yet.

But, they need to score one more try, and to end up eight points or more ahead of Japan, so at a minimum, that is scoring three more times.

Scotland are running out of time . . .

Japan 28 - 21 Scotland

Bonus point victory for Japan place them in the lead of Pool A, and Scotland are in third, also with a bonus point. Ireland come in second. Scotland therefore eliminated, but qualify for 2023.

Pool A:
1) Japan
2) Ireland
3) Scotland
4) Samoa
5) Russia

Pool B:
1) New Zealand
2) South Africa
3) Italy
4) Namibia
5) Canada

Pool C:
1) England
2) France
3) Argentina
4) Tonga
5) United States

Pool D:
1) Wales
2) Australia
3) Fiji
4) Georgia
5) Uruguay

Quarter-finals are:
England v Australia
New Zealand v Ireland
Wales v France
Japan v South Africa

I think the winners from that lot are England, NZ, Wales and the Saffers.

As I have absolutely no interest in the Scottish national fitba' team can we leave their results out of the tally? Unless Lianachan wants them in, but I think he's in the same camp as me.

Heid the Ba wrote:I think the winners from that lot are England, NZ, Wales and the Saffers.

I think most likely as well. None of the others are totally out of the question, though.

I think England, France and NZ have an advantage having missed a game and got the extra rest.

Heid the Ba wrote:I think England, France and NZ have an advantage having missed a game and got the extra rest.

There is that.

Ireland have beaten New Zealand twice in the last three years; they've also defeated New Zealand twice in the last century

I think the one most likely to go the other way is Japan v South Africa. The Saffers seem to have generally been off the last few years.

Heid the Ba wrote:As I have absolutely no interest in the Scottish national fitba' team can we leave their results out of the tally? Unless Lianachan wants them in, but I think he's in the same camp as me.

I’ve not really been able to bring myself to support Scotland at anything since the 2014 independence referendum revealed the place to be full of idiots, cowards and cunts (and various combinations of the three) - so happy with that proposal.

Well, as you prefer. I do have

Estonia 0 - 3 Germany

for you, though. A European Cup qualifier, so it does count.

Played 55, won 32, drawn 7, lost 16

Hurrah!

It was a sodden game to be honest. One man down after 17 min- defense was fooling around, one of them played the unavoidable desaster pass, another tried to make up for it by mowing down the intervening attacker. Horror stories from U15, Seventh League. They still managed to get three in because Estonia inhabits the Luxemburg-Andorra-Gibraltar-Faroer neighbourhood and just couldn't keep it up.