Brexit Delay

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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Мастер » Tue Apr 02, 2019 11:59 am

So, this whole thing is now one giant game of chicken?
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lance » Tue Apr 02, 2019 4:12 pm

I believe that describes it very well.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:33 pm

And you know, the assumption in the UK government was always that, in the end, the EU would blink. All would come together for all-nighters, the clock would stop, Mutti would pour coffee for everyone, and there would be a solution. Then, a whimpering and agonized Commonms with a rock-solid Soft Brexiteer majority would vote Aye, Jeremy Corbyn would be screaming and finger-pointing at the sidelines, everyone would shrug and get to work again, while IM Mai would fill in the paperwork for a snap election and coast to five more years.

But that is not how it went. The first the EU did was to present a a 60 billion Euro exit invoice, they all 27 stuck together and issued the no-cherrypicking policy, and then everyone let Michel Barnier, and Michel Barnier only, lead the negotiations - an old pro who showed the British delegation how the EU administration was slow, dumb, and inefficient. Now the deal is sealed, it splendidly protects European interests, and nothing - nothing - can be done to unpack it. There is simply nothing the EU will do anymore, and all the drama is not beween St. Theresa and the Dragon from Brussels but between Hard-, Harder-, Somewhat-Softer-Than-Rock-Hard and Maybe-Not-Quite-So-Hard-Brexiteers - in London, not in Brussels, and the Brexit crowd slowly realise they'll have no-one but themselves to blame when this goes off the cliff. The Conservative Party, the Party of Business. Yeah, right.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Tue Apr 02, 2019 5:35 pm

Aaaand IM Mai is asking for another extension. This time, I really wonder if she'll get it.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Richard A » Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:13 pm

Amid the gloom, some wonderful satire. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1NpExkViy6M
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Tue Apr 02, 2019 8:14 pm

IM Mai has asked Jeremy Corbyn for a date on Brexit.

It copuld be really simple: You give us the votes for the exit egreement, we givbe you the votes for a customs Union in the future relationship part of the deal. No problem with hard Brexiteers, no problem with staunch reminers, because Tory and Labour together have enough people with compromise on their mind in their benches.

Of course, that won't happen.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Wed Apr 03, 2019 9:01 am

Sorry, I was away all weekend and am only now catching up. Wee Nicola is a good leader but can't really do much in the present crisis.

Arneb hit the nail on the head when he said "they all 27 stuck together and issued the no-cherrypicking policy" as May and the Brexiteers seemed to think they could deal with all the countries separately rather than with the EU negotiators. When they were roundly disabused of that idea they had no idea what to do.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Thu Apr 04, 2019 1:11 pm

From the Grauniad: Scotland’s first minister Nicola Sturgeon has told the Holyrood parliament that she conducted talks with Theresa May yesterday in the spirit of compromise but that “all I really got in return was why she disagreed with me”
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Thu Apr 04, 2019 6:09 pm

With this kind of negotiation pertners, good luck!
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:15 am

I watched a discussion round yesterday on Brexit. The former ambassador to Germany, an intelligent and calm, rational man unfortunately named Torry, pointed out that he didn't think the discussions in the Commons weren't as bad as everyone made them look, because the issue is, by Jove, serious enough and so were the discussions.

Interestingly, neither Sir Peter nor anyone else in the round believed the negotiation between IM Mai and J. Corbyn would lead to a compromise, not between these two.

IM Mai has now asked European Council for an extension until 22 May, and she will prepare for European elections which would be called off if 22 May turns out to be the true exit date and no further extension takes palce. That was cerainly a difficult step for her, but I wonder what the rest will say. Mutti is on the record as saying that "everyone" (that is, she at least and anyone willing to follow her) will work to make Brexit as soft and not-too-painful as possible. Torry said yesterday IM Mai would get her extension after some posturing because who would like to be the one with blood on their hands who pushed the UK over the cliff. Hear, hear.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Fri Apr 05, 2019 10:28 am

That pretty much sums it up.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Мастер » Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:13 pm

On Scottish Independence - first time around, I thought, I don’t care, it’s not my business, whatever people in Scotland want to do, it’s fine by me.

If there’s another one, I am enthusiastically rooting for Scottish independence. Nicola Sturgeon is one of the only pols who seems to be coming out of this whole disaster smelling good. And she seems to be building her case very cautiously, trying to avoid making the same mistake that both Cameron and May made, calling an election/referendum they didn’t need to call, and then managing to lose it.

Brexit has turned a central/eastern European into an ardent Scottish independence advocate :)

I’ll only add, the argument that Scotland is “too small” is ridiculous. The number of independent countries, including some in the EU, that are smaller than Scotland, is not a short list.

I only hope that when Scotland vote for independence, we’re not wondering three years later what exactly that means.

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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Fri Apr 05, 2019 3:43 pm

There must be some way we can wangle a vote for you!
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Мастер » Fri Apr 05, 2019 5:03 pm

Heid the Ba wrote:There must be some way we can wangle a vote for you!


Have Holyrood make me a citizen.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Fri Apr 05, 2019 7:26 pm

That'll be a lot tougher after Brexit what with your Euroweasel passport.

I agree Nicola Sturgeon is one of the very few people making bella figura in this mess. And I must say that, in the various debates I listened to, I liked contributions by SNP members, sometimes in the face of hate-filled tirades from the PM herself. They were out to seek solutions although they never failed to point out two thirds of Scotland voted Remain and that they want to rejoin the EU as an independent Scotland later.

This second Scotland referendum thing will be a very interesting thing to follow. Not being a member of anything, even if it is only for a limited period of time, I gigure it will bring hard economic times to Scotland, and not everyone is willing to live in a cave if only it brings independence (in contrast to our Rt. Honourable Member for Ross County, Lianachan). This has to be prepared exceptionally well in order to succeed, and I am quite certain it will be the last shot for a very long time. Scotland has a strong "frustration of purpose" type case for a second Independence vote after Brexit, but if that one fails, it will be Québec reloaded ever after.

A question to our Scottish memebers: IM Mai argued quite aggressively that staying in the EU fisheries and agricultural policies was bad for the Scottish agricultural and fishing industries, and that they stand to again from Brexit. Is that accepted lore?
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:41 pm

Accepted lore is precisely the opposite. Scottish farmers and fishermen have been repeatedly and publicly betrayed by Westminster.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Fri Apr 05, 2019 8:57 pm

Westminster regularly promises Scotland the moon and then gives it to the south of England. IM Mai will tell us that black is white if she thinks it will get her a vote.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Sat Apr 06, 2019 12:58 pm

Actual footage of Theresa May extending article 50.

Image
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Richard A » Sat Apr 06, 2019 4:51 pm

Interesting to read Master's comments on Scottish independence - they very much mirror my own views (1st time round I thought it was none of my business, this time round I think that if they can craft their own lifeboat out of this mess then good on them!) And I agree that Nicola Sturgeon has come out very well on this. But then she always does. I remember watching the TV debates in the run-up to the 2015 2017 election. The Plaid Cymru leader, Leanne Wood, played entirely to the Welsh gallery - didn't say a thing that anyone in the rest of the UK had any reason to be interested in. On one level, fair enough - no one outside Wales was going to get a chance to vote Plaid Cymru. But Nicola Sturgeon was a complete contrast. She basically said, OK, I want Scottish independence but until I get it, Scotland's a part of the UK and therefore the issues that affect the rest of the UK affect us - and she really made an effort to engage with the non-Scottish electorate. I like her.

Meanwhile we wait and see what, if anything, comes out of the May-Corbyn talks. Ironically, the biggest threat to their success is now the part of the Labour Party who are determined that Corbyn should not, under any circumstances, concede on the 2nd referendum. If he gets enough of the rest (customs union for definite), then why not? It would be nice to get something close to the single market, accepting that that means free movement - but May will not, will not concede on "control of our borders". I like Arneb's name for her, IM Mai, and his explanation, but there's a good reason why I initially thought IM meant Innenministerin. May's hostile environment policy, devised as Home Secretary, has continued to dominate her policies as Prime Minister, egged on by the popular press. "I do not want any more Czechs. No Spaniards, Croats or Litvaks. I do not like their Polish ham, I do not like it, Jezz-I-am!" (There was an extended version, but that will do.) But a customs union will do - and it does keep the door at least half open to EFTA membership if and when we have a more sensible leader in the future.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Sat Apr 06, 2019 6:54 pm

The fact that there are people who think Jetemy Corbyn is too little of an ideolgue strikes me as distinctly odd.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Arneb » Tue Apr 09, 2019 11:48 am

IM Mai is touring Restern Europe meeting Mutti and Bonnie Prez Manuel in sequence. Our one good news magazine wrote: Weak May on a begging tour.

'Nuff said.

ETA: Oh, and the "Leader of the House", as she is called in Westminsterish, Andrea Leadsom, required IM Mai to re-negotiate the deal so it can be accepted by the House of Commons. I wonder what she smoked last night. Must have been spectacular, but with a bit of a hangover.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Tue Apr 09, 2019 12:32 pm

They are making Mai dance, they know nothing will come of today's meetings. Leadsom is a Leaver who hates Mai who demoted her in a cabinet re-shuffle. Leadsom also stood against Mai when Pigfucking Davie stood down and it got a bit personal when Leadsom suggested that Mai would be a bad PM as she didn't have children, rather than pointing out she would be a bad PM as she is a shit person. Leadsom blames Mai for calling the snap election when the Tories lost their majority, without that Mai might well have won the recent votes.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:11 pm

Ha, "Pigfucking Davie". Not nearly enough people still mention that.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Heid the Ba » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:19 pm

I use it at every opportunity, sometimes I have to manufacture the opportunity but they all count.
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Re: Brexit Delay

Postby Lianachan » Tue Apr 09, 2019 1:58 pm

They do indeed. Well played, sir.
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