by Мастер » Fri Mar 13, 2020 2:26 pm
So, the only remaining Six Nations match that hasn't been postponed is Wales v Scotland.
There is no scenario in which Wales can win the tournament.
Scotland can theoretically win, but it's tough.
Scotland win with bonus point - requires England to do no better than a draw (without the bonus point) against Italy, and France to do no better than a draw (without the bonus point) against Ireland. And it also requires Ireland to do no better than scoring six table points when they play France and Italy. If England lose to Italy with one or no bonus points, and France lose to Ireland with one or no bonus points, and Ireland (who win against France in this scenario) score no bonus point against France and lose to Italy with no bonus points, then Scotland are the winner. In all other sub-cases in this scenario, it would come down to the point differentials.
Scotland win without bonus point - requires England to lose against Italy (and do no better than one of the two bonus points), and France to lose against Ireland (and also do no better than one bonus point). Also requires Ireland to score no more than five points in their two matches against France and Italy, and they must win against France in this scenario. If England lose to Italy with no bonus points, France lose to Ireland with no bonus points, Ireland win no bonus point against France, and Ireland lose to Italy with no bonus points, then Scotland are the winner. In all other sub-cases in this scenario, it would come down to the point differentials.
Scotland draw with bonus point - requires England to lose to Italy with no bonus point, France to lose to Ireland with no bonus point, Ireland to win against France with no bonus point, and Ireland to lose to Italy with no bonus point. It then comes down to the point differential, which remains at +14 for Scotland, since in this scenario, they draw. England must lost to Italy and not score the bonus point in this scenario, so their point differential will be at most +7, and France lose to Ireland with no bonus point, so their point differential will be at most +5. So Scotland (in this scenario) would beat both of them on point differential, but they most also beat Ireland, currently at +5. So the Irish victory over France (again, in this scenario) can't be too strong, relative to their loss to Italy.
Scotland draw without bonus point, or lose - Scotland does not win the tournament.
So there are scenarios in which Scotland win, but they are not very likely - if England win against Italy, that, all by itself, knocks Scotland out. If Ireland win against Italy, then the only possible scenarios in which Scotland can win require Ireland and France to draw - neither team can win! So a Scottish victory in the tournament is theoretically possible, but not likely. Tomorrow's match is a matter of keeping an extremely slim hope alive.
In all other cases, it is a three horse race, England, Ireland, and Scotland. Ireland can achieve the highest number of table points (19) by winning both matches against Italy and France, and scoring both bonus points. If they do that, they win the tournament. However, I think England is probably In a better position, because they only have to play Italy, and can (with high probability) score 18 table points. There is a good chance Ireland will not defeat France, or will not score both bonus points. So I think England is in the best position, then Ireland, then France, then Scotland.
They call me Mr Celsius!