Brexit Delay

[Arneb]

OK, so I have a good reason to be depressed. Gee, whoever said that voting in a democracy made no difference? Fuck it does.

[Lianachan]

I saw on twitter that one MP said “I hope she collects air miles, because she’ll not come back with anything else”.

[Arneb]

And very few to boot, going only between Lunnin innit and Frittes City.

[Richard A]

Heid the Ba, sadly, has it right. The point is that too few of them get that the EU is not going to be strong-armed into agreeing to making compromises it already made clear it can't agree to. Labour, though, is continuing to push for a permanent customs union - and might just get that as more and more people understand that a) that can be achieved and b) May's unicorns can't. But we'll see.

[Arneb]

It just occurred to me that that the "alternative" in the backstop-"alternative measures" is very much in line with the recent use of "alternative" as in "alternative facts". Unicorns exist, if you believe in them strongly enough, you know. Until they don't.

[Richard A]

But another problem is that the hard Brexiteers simply do not get why what they think is just a breed of horse is in fact a unicorn. Something that Arneb and I have often talked about is that he finds it special just driving into Berlin from the surrounding countryside. I imagine Boris saying, "What's the big deal? I don't even know where the boundary between London and Buckinghamshire is - on many roads there aren't even signs. So your wife takes the kids from Potsdam to school in Zehlendorf - and?" He would even say, "You believe in all this European cooperation but you say that a German university opening a campus in Wroclaw and flying a large German flag from the main building wouldn't be a good idea. Why not - you believe in academic cooperation, don't you? And when I went to Berlin when I was Foreign Secretary, I saw loads of cars with Polish number plates. What's the problem?" Some of them do get it but don't care - on a level with, "Arneb, OK, I know you grew up with a wall around West Berlin. But you and your family had a pretty good life then, didn't you?"

For May, though, it is a unicorn exactly as Arneb describes. I think she does get what the big deal is about the Irish border - I don't think she believes, as Boris et al do, that Brussels is just being difficult for the sake of it. But she does cling to the belief that she can please her right wing and get a deal with Brussels. She can't. She can, with a customs union for the whole UK, have a deal that will get a Parliamentary majority and be acceptable to Brussels (and preserve the Good Friday agreement - or rather because it preserves it). But that would mean telling her right wing to go screw themselves and she doesn't have the bottle to do that.

[Arneb]

It seems the title of this thread becomes real. Another deal vote, once more the Noes have it (242 - 391, IIRC). So it seems to take the sequence

No to this deal (tonight) --> No to No Deal (tomorrow) --> Yes to an extension of art. 50 (Thursday).

An it'll be Groundhog Day ("This day or no deal") come June...

Or maybe not: IM Mai said today, in her very impressive hoarse-from-long-nights-of negotiation voice, the House could pass a law revoking, unilaterally, the art. 50 decleration, or even a new referendum. Eppur si muove!

[Heid the Ba]

I would fully expect the EU to hold our arse to the fire if we want an extension or if we want to back out. At the very least they should ask for all their costs.

[Enzo]

And no kiss at the door when you get home.

[Arneb]

And no kiss at the door when you get home.

Not that they exactly deserved one. Also, May's got the flu.

More wheeling and dealing. Categorically No Deal, 312 to 308, is the big news from tonight. Lips curled with contempt, IM Mai tells Parliament that doesn't change a thing, if you don't vote for something now you effectively have voted for no deal all along. So get your act together and pass a law deciding between limited exctension, long extension with a European election, brexit anullment or a second referendum, and prepare to endure the pain over it. She said, in as many words, that what the MPs were doing was "straining the fragile bond of trust between the population and the Members of this house". That was one right on the jewels, with a pointy shoe.

Unfortunately, she is right.

[Lianachan]

There’s no trust left to strain anyway. The UK currently has the worst government in the entire history of parliament, and at the same time it has the most ineffectual, useless opposition. It’s embarrasing to have to have anything to do with them.

[Heid the Ba]

Well put.

[Lianachan]

Ok, one of you is going to be the new Brexit Secretary. Any volunteers?

[Arneb]

I wonder what will happen if the EU Council doesn't grant an extension, because then the Commons will have real choices:
1, No Deal
2, Her Deal
3, No Brexit

Come to think of it, if I were the EU, I'd f feel a strong itch to call their bluff anf be done with it. You know, it's not that the EU didn't have anything else to do but watch the histrionics of one member state and give their MP a compassionate pat on the bavck every few weeks. We have Nazis to deal with, we have other governments bent on destroying this peace project, thank you very much.

If I were PM, I'd say to Parliament, well, I present my deal for ratification one last time. Since Parliament has already ruled out a no-deal Brexit, I'll get on a plane to Brussels the minute the Noes have it and deliver a letter revoking article fifty unilaterally. After that, I'll have chat with her Majesty handing in my resignation and take a taxi home for a hot toddy and an evening of Eastenders reruns. Your move, Boris Fannybaws Johnson. Your turn, Jacob Reek-Fuck. A point of order from the honorable member Jeryfuck Cowardbin?

Order! Ordeeer!

[Lianachan]

Bonus points for use of “fannybaws” there.

[Enzo]

Ok, one of you is going to be the new Brexit Secretary. Any volunteers?

I note all the candidates are Red Shirts.

[Arneb]

Their fate is sealed.

In an interesting new development, the Speaker of the House, John Bercow, has forbidden a third vote on IM Mai's Brexit deal in its current form. Citing precedent fron the 17th century, he ruled a proposition cannot be presented for acceptance arbitrarily often.

So that means, no deal or no Brexit, if I get it right, right? Anyone?

[Lianachan]

The convention that Bercow is referring to dates back to 1604. Jacob Rees-Mogg says he opposed it then and he will oppose it again now.

[Arneb]

I say, they were unbearably modernistic in those days, weren't they. By Jove!

One of the advantages of being a young democracy with a written constitution is nonot having to put up with that kind of shit, Parliamentary chairpeople suddenly pulling out legislative precedent rabbits out of their 1000-yer-old hats.

[Lianachan]

Actual photo of Bercow delivering his verdict this afternoon:

[Arneb]

Actual footage of IM Mai upon hearing the news.

[Heid the Ba]

The convention that Bercow is referring to dates back to 1604. Jacob Rees-Mogg says he opposed it then and he will oppose it again now.

Bravo!

It dates from 1604 but it has been used much more recently than that. The implication from the Leave/Tory press is that he just pulled it out of his arse but he didn't.

[Arneb]

That's good to know. I had the impression that this was a quick tackle from behind to IM Mai.

[Heid the Ba]

French minister for EU affairs (Nathalie Loiseau) has called her cat Brexit: she has solid reasons.
"He wakes me up every morning miaowing to death because he wants to go out, and then when I open the door he stays in the middle, undecided, and then gives me evil looks when I put him out."

[Lianachan]

That's good to know. I had the impression that this was a quick tackle from behind to IM Mai.

You won’t have heard it reported on the BBC, but the SNP actually raised it before her second vote.