graphic deaths

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graphic deaths

Postby Enzo » Fri Nov 13, 2020 5:26 am

SO they show the graph of new Covid cases in the US all the time. It is really growing. There is the running seven day average line running through the data, but it is averaging the daily data, which is visible around the line. WHat strikes me - other than my wife's fist - is that that data seems to be cyclic on roughly a weekly pattern. A regular up and down all along the average. It has been that way all along, too regular to just be chance.


SO I am wondering what causes this regular oscillation in the graph. Do cases tend to get reported on fridays? SOme other artifact of the data collection? I find it hard to believe the disease actually infects more towards the end of the week. Or maybe over the weekend, fewer folks get infected? Seems unlikely, but what do I know? Not that, I guess.
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Re: graphic deaths

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:23 am

Enzo wrote:Do cases tend to get reported on fridays?


That would be my first guess, although it is just that, a guess.

When they report a case late, is it filed under date of the report, or under most likely date of infection? (Which may be hard to determine.)

Enzo wrote:I find it hard to believe the disease actually infects more towards the end of the week. Or maybe over the weekend, fewer folks get infected? Seems unlikely, but what do I know?


I don’t know either, but people do different things on the weekend than they do on weekdays, so I don’t think it is completely outlandish to suspect there might be different patterns of infection for different days of the week.
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Re: graphic deaths

Postby Мастер » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:34 am

I wonder if people might seek treatment differently on different days of the week.

If someone is really, seriously ill, maybe they tend to seek treatment quickly no matter what day it is. But suppose you are only slightly ill, not really sure if you’ve got something or not. If this happens on a Tuesday or a Saturday, are you equally likely to go in for treatment right away, versus “I’ll do it tomorrow”?

And are the cases detected because people seek treatment, or because there is some testing programme? If there’s a mass testing programme, could there be a day-of-the-week effect there? Is it possible people are diagnosed when they visit hospital for something else, which may have a day-of-the-week effect?

I have no evidence for any of this. Just speculating.
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Re: graphic deaths

Postby Arneb » Fri Nov 13, 2020 7:50 am

In my experience, both differential reporting and differential treatment are real.

In Germany, we see the weekly rhythm in case numbers as well. The lowest are on Suday and Monday. In order to appear in the official case count, a positive finding has to work its way through the place where the test was taken, the lab, the local health administration, and the Robert-Koch-Insitute. There are fewer tests on the weekends, and some local authorities empty their fax bins with new positive reports Monday morning. So we typically have a weekend lull, and an aftershock on Tuesdays and Wednesday. Also, rather few surgeries are open on weekends, so for someone with symptoms, it makes sense to wait out the weekend (hopfully under self-isolation) and phone their doctor on Monday.

In diseases that aren't immediately life-threatening or associated with crushing symptoms, people have some wiggle-room for seeking help. So there, too, is a possibility for a weekend lull. As a German specialty, most doctors caring for outpatients are self-employed, and they tend to close Wednesday and Friday afternoons.
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Re: graphic deaths

Postby Enzo » Fri Nov 13, 2020 3:57 pm

Thank you.

I didn't want to think of the possibility the data scribe had Parkinson's...
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