by Richard A » Tue Jul 12, 2022 8:26 pm
Some may say it doesn't make any difference - no Tory leader is going to be a great improvement on BoJo. (Could they be worse - well ...). But now that we know for definite who the candidates are, an edit of and comment on Arneb's earlier list.
For those outside the UK who haven't followed, the intricacies, this is how the process works.
Round 1 (just completed): To get on the ballot, a candidate has to get 20 MPs to support them. (The membership of the Conservative party as a whole don't get a look in until later.). By the deadline of 18.00 tonight, 8 managed that.
Round 2: Voting by Conservative MPs. Any candidate who gets less than 36 votes is out. If they all manage that, then whoever gets the least votes is out.
Round 3, etc.: Rinse and repeat until there are only two left standing.
Final round: The membership of the Conservative Party as a whole vote, choosing from the final 2. The winner becomes leader.
Rishi Sunak, apparently a bit of a front runner, the former Chancellor whose resignation ushered in the final days of BoJo. Maybe that will prove his undoing, because some Tories apparently don't want the honourable Brutus to replace the slain Caesar impersonator.
Still a favourite with the bookies, though joint favourite now with Penny Mordaunt. Interestingly, although BoJo felt very bitter towards him, Johnson loyalists like Dominic Raab are backing him.
Sajid Javid, former Health Secretary and the other Brutus; his and Sunak's resignation letters were published 9 min apart, for maximum destructive effect
- didn't make the 20 supporters, so out.
Jeremy Hunt
Former Foreign Secretary. Interesting candidate. Kicked out of the Cabinet in Boris's purge of autumn 2019 as not sufficiently committed to Brexit. That won't play well with the Daily Mail, but it also means he's totally untarnished by the scandals of the last 2 years. (But rely on his opponents to remind us of the time he couldn't remember where his wife came from.)
Nadhim Zahawi. After BoJo, it might prove inconvenient to have an investigation for tax evasion on your heels. Especially when you are the current Chancellor of the Exchequer (that's Finance Minister, you uneducated rednecks!)
Committed to tax cuts across the board as necessary to boost the economy. Tax is shaping up to be the leading issue in the contest. Interestingly, came to the UK as a refugee - unlike the other non-whites, who were born here of families who'd established themselves in business. Arrived aged 11 as a refugee speaking no English. Will that give him sympathy for those in a similar situation now? (Priti Patel and Suella Braverman have both made it clear they have none at all.)
Tom Tugendhat, a liberal and anti-Brexit Tory, some isolated specimens still exist, but count on a first round exit.
Has moved his position on Europe to "let's take the opportunities of Brexit" rather than continuing to be anti-Brexit as such. But his key platform is making a break with the past - easy for him as he was never a minister. "A Clean Slate". Of all the candidates, if he made it, he'd be least likely to persist with tearing up the Northern Ireland Protocol - in fact, his approach to foreign policy (if not other issues) would likely be similar to Biden's in January 2021: trying to re-establish the trust his predecessor had lost.
Suella Braverman
Disappointing that she made it on to the ballot. Very similar in outlook to Priti Patel. Heaven help us if she becomes PM: the fable of the frogs, the rock and the crane comes to mind. Patel may well not have tried that hard to get the 20 signatures because she's hoping to be in a Braverman Cabinet.
Kemi Badenoch
Impressive at first - a great opening that she wouldn't make promises she couldn't keep (implication, unlike others). But look more closely and she's Braverman light. Re-labelled the gender-neutral toilets at her launch venue as Ladies and Gentlemen. Doesn't believe in critical race theory (despite her Nigerian origins). Might also fit well in a Braverman Cabinet. But would Braverman get a place in hers - the bookies like Badenoch more than Braverman.
Penny Mordaunt
Solid Brexiteer from the beginning, not a more recent convert. Seen as a solid candidate of the right. Neck and neck with Sunak right now.
Liz Truss (Foreign Affairs)
Although originally pro-Remain, a solid convert. Firmly in favour of ditching the NI Protocol. Seen (correctly) as a candidate of the right - but so are Braverman and Mordaunt. Jacob Rees-Mogg and Nadine Dorries back her - possibly because she stayed loyal to Boris to the end.
The next trimming is tomorrow afternoon.