Мудак

[Мастер]

[tubeswell]

дерьмо, говно, мудак, дристун

[Arneb]

Dreimal drecksverfluchtes Arschloch, der Blitz soll ihn beim Scheißen treffen, die schmierige KGB-Nutte.

[Мастер]

So the fellow on CNN just said Putin's goal is to reestablish the Soviet Union before its 100th birthday. The country was created on 28 December 1922 - it voted itself out of existence two days short of its 69th birthday.

A few days ago, I would have dismissed this as ridiculous hyperbole. Now it seems - well, much less ridiculous.

Still somewhat ridiculous though; the union with Belarus hasn't even happened yet.

[Мастер]

I am getting a rather positive impression of the president of Ukraine, whose last job was playing the president of Ukraine in a television comedy programme.

I just hope he doesn't end up dead.

[Мастер]

So the talking head on the electric television was saying that people who have met with Putin recently, report that he is a different man than a year ago.

I am not sure what might have happened, but I am leaning towards this assessment. He seemed a very cold, calculating individual, who exercised considerable caution in his international entanglements, preferring quite limited engagements in areas that have strongly pro-Russian (or at least strongly separatist) leanings.

A large-scale invasion of a major country which does not have strong pro-Russian sentiment (the areas with pro-Russian sentiment are already separated), and which has substantially upgraded its military since 2014, when it lost some of its territory to Russia - this seems very out of character. And the country is going to be much less pro-Russian now.

So, did something happen to Putin that made him snap? If so, what?

[Arneb]

I think he is the same cold, calculating individual he always was. He is confident enough now that neither a geriatric President of a country divided between, "hey, smart guy, he never called me racist, and where the hell is that Ukraine thing anyway?" and "our old white men are SO MUCH worse than that old white man, it's all America's fault, and where the hell is that Ukraine thing anyway" nor a European Union whose most credible deterrent is five thousand helmets and no exclusion from SWIFT will stand in his way. And right he is.

I read the assessment here that conquering Ukraine wouldn't be a walk in the park even for 100k+ well-equipped troups attacking from all sides and heavy sea/air superiority, but if they are at the outskirts of Kyiv after two days, well... The President has apparently refused an American offer to bail him out, which heightens both my respect for him, and the likelihood that he'll end up dead. But I suppose Putin wants him alive to have him show-trialled for Crimes against Humanity and Genocide. He is a dyed-in-the wool Stalinist with a passionate hatred for freedom and peace, and he was always willing to act on it. Now he knows he can.

I talked with my mother on the phone yesterday. She always saw him for what he is, and she is crushed that noone else did until now. Or maybe not even now.

BTW, if I had anything to say, that Schröder guy would end up in court for treason.

[Мастер]

I struggle to replicate the calculations that conclude that this whole adventure is likely to be anything other than a giant disaster for Putin.

[Lianachan]

The Gaelic for Russian warship, go fuck yourself is “rach air do mhuin fhèin a luing chogaidh Ruiseanaich”.

[tubeswell]

The ... Russian warship, go fuck yourself

Very sad story

[tubeswell]

Western economic sanctions will be irrelevant apparently

[Blue Monster 65]

The Gaelic for Russian warship, go fuck yourself is “rach air do mhuin fhèin a luing chogaidh Ruiseanaich”.

Brilliant. I salute them, as do the veterans in my family.

The one serving member I would like to discuss this with has gone dark.

[Arneb]

I struggle to replicate the calculations that conclude that this whole adventure is likely to be anything other than a giant disaster for Putin.

I am not so sure. He breaks military resistance eventually, has the Ukranian leadership up against the wall or in Gulag for long enough, floods Ukraine with gas money for rebuilding infrastructure, introduces strict mind control in schools and media, and has himself celebrated as the man who liberated mother Russia from separation, unrest, denazifying Ukraine (his actual words) and ending the evil infiltration from the West. Menawhile, the West (or China, for that matter) keeps the juices flowing by buying coal, oil, and gas, and with the oil price having shot through the roof, there is a healthy profit. Meanwhile, China has seen that the West won't actually intervene when you mark your spheres of influence, so it's Taiwan and the Baltic States next.

I may be too fidgety here, but I actually have two sons at stake if going to war for political ends becomes a thing again on the larger world stage. I am losing sleep over this, I'm telling you.

A lot of my thoughts echo in this commentary (in German), if you are interested. In another deep commentary, Victor Jerfeev makes clear why it may turn out to be a success for Putin after all: Russians believe him that it is really Ukraine's and NATO's fault. It's a lot of German reading, but you might still find it interesting.

[Richard A]

I heard a commentary on the radio today from a former policy advisor who pretty much expressed a lot of what Arneb just has. In particular, that we were given fair warning in 2014 and didn't heed it. Putin annexed the Crimea and the West exclaimed in the tone of Bluebottle from the Goons, "You naughty man!" And that was pretty much it.

The one thing on this thread I disagree with is that all the areas of Ukraine with strong pro-Russian sentiment were already under separatist control. Areas of the south now "liberated" - or about to be - were less than happy with Kiev's rule, as demonstrated in a Ukrainian government survey that I found when researching an update to a presentation. A former student, now living in London but originally from Odessa, says she's "very well".

It does indeed not bode well for Taiwan - since China also has nuclear missiles. Are we really going to go for MAD over an island that again, few could probably find on a map? But a friend I saw the other night, who's very much an expert on Russia - and indeed China - takes a different view on the Baltic states. Apparently Putin, back when he was a senior servant of the Soviet Union, was a member of the Andropov clique. And according to said friend, their view of 1991 was that "they never wanted to see the Baltics again". They regarded them as a pain in the arse - a centre of dissent (which could be put down and was but still happened more frequently than elsewhere), not Slavs, an external province. Ukraine was another matter - Ukraine was Mala Rus, the location of Kiev, Poltava, Crimea. On which note, some may recall a scene in Uncle Vanya (I think it's Uncle Vanya - it's definitely one of Chekhov's plays) where the grandfather suggests that the family leave their estate in the Ukraine and move to a cottage in Finland and is met with uproar. But the Baltics aside, Putin probably does want to recreate the Soviet Union - I definitely think Moldova's next.

The point about Belarus is interesting. I was talking to another former student about that - pointing out that Lukashenko was the one member of the Belorussian (as it then was) Parliament to vote against secession from the Soviet Union. He said that was true but that since then, Lukashenko has come to enjoy having personal power within Belarus that he would not have as leader of one the Russian republics. He probably also enjoys having a seat in the UN and going to international summits, although if the West's attempts to freeze him out put an end to that, he might think: what the hell? (Although China would not join in the freezing, I doubt very much that Xi would accord Belarus anything like the same respect it accords Russia.)

Zelensky is indeed worthy of great respect, but at the same time, I'm inclined to think he'd have done well to relocate the government to Lviv, in much the same way that Chiang Kai-shek relocated to Chongqing as the Japanese advanced. He has, after all, the excuse that the foreign embassies have already done so. But I guess we'll see. The taking of Kiev is inevitable, but will still prove tricky: carpet bombing the city would raze a number of buildings that for Russian nationalists may be symbolic.

[Мастер]

I struggle to replicate the calculations that conclude that this whole adventure is likely to be anything other than a giant disaster for Putin.

I am not so sure. He breaks military resistance eventually, has the Ukranian leadership up against the wall or in Gulag for long enough, floods Ukraine with gas money for rebuilding infrastructure, introduces strict mind control in schools and media, and has himself celebrated as the man who liberated mother Russia from separation, unrest, denazifying Ukraine (his actual words) and ending the evil infiltration from the West. Menawhile, the West (or China, for that matter) keeps the juices flowing by buying coal, oil, and gas, and with the oil price having shot through the roof, there is a healthy profit. Meanwhile, China has seen that the West won't actually intervene when you mark your spheres of influence, so it's Taiwan and the Baltic States next.

Well can he succeed in this?

Ukraine is a big country, the population is one third of Russia's. The Afghan war did not go so well, and the Americans haven't done any better (there or in Iraq).

So will Ukraine be easier to pacify? It was a divided country in 2014, Putin has corrected that.

The last time there was a pro-Russian president of Ukraine is living in exile in Russia, having fled. Anyone Putin puts in is going to be way less popular than that. The current president is a native Russia speaker, a living breathing example showing that even if Russian is your native language, you can still be "Ukrainian". And so far, at least, he's played his part admirably.

The invasion force needs to be bigger if the goal is to occupy the country. Crimea didn't take much, because most of the people in Crimea actually prefer being part of Russia. That is not the case in the rest of the country. There is an historical argument for Crimea to be in Russia, and the Ukrainian army didn't even fight for it. They're fighting now. And are they going to get help? Well they're probably not getting foreign troops, but I suspect the Ukrainian army is not going to want for weapons. (The more cynical cold warriors among us in the western countries might view this as an opportunity to destroy as much Russian military hardware as possible.). When the guy with the funny moustache sent the German army into Austria in 1938, many Austrians cheered. It doesn't look like too many Ukrainians are cheering - those who would, are mostly already in Russian-annexed or rebel-held territory.

Putin's big presidential achievement was the economic recovery from the disaster of the 1990s (and also successful prosecution of the second Chechen war - although Chechnya may as well be independent, it's ruled by a dictator who publicly at least still adheres to the illusion that it is still part of Russia). The country's GDP is about the same now as it was in 2013 - nine years of close to 0% growth. Putin's supporters, which include many oligarchs, cannot be happy about this whole misadventure. The idea that "Putin is good for business" seems a lot less credible than it once did.

I am wondering whether the outcome of this will be - Sweden and Finland join NATO. The NATO countries, persuaded by Putin, do something Trump couldn't get them to do - drastically increase their military spending. And their GDP is a few dozen times larger than Russia's. An expanded, much more militarily capable NATO - the opposite of what Putin allegedly was trying to achieve.

I may be too fidgety here, but I actually have two sons at stake if going to war for political ends becomes a thing again on the larger world stage. I am losing sleep over this, I'm telling you.

Well that I can understand. But Putin seems to have united the rest of the world through this action in the way he united Ukraine (other than Crimea and the rebel territories) in 2014. The idea that, "Putin can be reasonable, lets try to negotiate with him or address his concerns" - that is dead. Russia is now viewed like Germany was in the 1930s, but Russia is in a much weaker position.

Well, that's my take, but I suppose we'll see how accurate it is.

A lot of my thoughts echo in this commentary (in German), if you are interested. In another deep commentary, Victor Jerfeev makes clear why it may turn out to be a success for Putin after all: Russians believe him that it is really Ukraine's and NATO's fault. It's a lot of German reading, but you might still find it interesting.

I'll have a look. My opinion is, this is a case of extreme overreach by an individual who had previously been quite cautious in his international misadventures. But maybe it will change my mind.

Another thought to be posted elsewhere.

[Мастер]

Zelensky is indeed worthy of great respect, but at the same time, I'm inclined to think he'd have done well to relocate the government to Lviv, in much the same way that Chiang Kai-shek relocated to Chongqing as the Japanese advanced. He has, after all, the excuse that the foreign embassies have already done so. But I guess we'll see. The taking of Kiev is inevitable, but will still prove tricky: carpet bombing the city would raze a number of buildings that for Russian nationalists may be symbolic.

I can't help but wonder whether he does have evacuation plans, but it is avoiding executing them until the last minute. Of course that is a risky game, it may be too late.

[Мастер]

So if Ukraine does ultimately join NATO, then Moldova (including its separatist part) are completely surrounded.

I wonder how the Russian troops there get in and out?

The only way there is through Moldova or Ukraine, I guess they must have been going through Ukraine? Or do they go there and back without identifying themselves as Russian military?

[Мастер]

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/live ... crd1290094

The economy of Germany alone is larger than Russia's. Of course Russia has more people, but the Western European counties combined have a vastly larger population (and GDP) than Russia.

Russia is an entirely manageable threat, by Europe alone, even without the United States, if the will to handle the problem exists. Debate about whether it is a problem that needs to be handled, appears to have gone very much more to one side rather than the other in the last few days.

So does the will to do what it takes here exist?

[Мастер]

Here's one that ultimately comes from the Financial Times.

https://www.channelnewsasia.com/comment ... er-2522976

I like this part.

Gradually, a revanchist side began to emerge. Former aides to Mikheil Saakashvili, the leader of the colour revolution in Georgia, suspected something was wrong when Putin complained about Tbilisi’s “museum of Russian occupation” at a meeting in 2007 and reminded him of fellow Georgians like Stalin and Beria who had sat at the heights of Soviet power.

Saakashvili joked: “Why don’t you open a museum of Georgian occupation in the Kremlin?” His aides gasped in horror at Putin’s stony reaction.

[Arneb]

[...]if the will to handle the problem exists

And that is the point, exactly. Of course, we can do a lot. There is sanctions that hurt us as well, there is military spending, there is bringing the Bundeswehr's Office of Acquisitions to a standard that allows us to have planes that actually fly, tanks that actually roll and shoot, etc.. There is also the issue of nuclear armament, which is such a big no-no in Germany, a veritable taboo. Talk about it, be ostracized from polite company.

And ultimately, there is the issue of putting uniforms on your sons, handing them a rifle, praying for their return and convincing yourself it was worth it when prayer doesn't help, as usual. Putin has no problems sending young Russians to their deaths, but we do. Putin's disregard for human life (let alone dignity) can go a long way.

Of course, you are making fair points throughout. But given the history of success in Russia suppressing dissent by nothing but pure violence, subersion and disinformation does not leave me very optimistic.

[Richard A]

So if Ukraine does ultimately join NATO, then Moldova (including its separatist part) are completely surrounded.

I wonder how the Russian troops there get in and out?

The only way there is through Moldova or Ukraine, I guess they must have been going through Ukraine? Or do they go there and back without identifying themselves as Russian military?

The short answer is, I don't know, but my speculation is, the same way that US, UK, etc. troops got in and out of Iraq and Afghanistan: by air. Up to now, Russian aircraft have been able to overfly Ukraine. That may end if any kind of independent Ukraine comes out of this that joins NATO - which is why Putin will do his utmost not to allow it. Possible endgames in a peace agreement that enables Putin not to occupy the whole of Ukraine long term while keeping a fair amount of what he wants.

1. A clause that allows Russians transit rights between Russia and Transnistria, similar to the agreement that allows Russians to transit Lithuania to get to/from Kaliningrad. (Presumably via Belarus, unless Latvia was also a party to the deal.)

2. Certain parts of Ukraine are transferred to Russia, but not all of it. That could include either the entire Black Sea coast or simply the western part of it, so that Transnistria is connected to Odessa and the Crimea - Russia's already built a bridge connecting Crimea to the east.

But what I don't see is Putin allowing Transnistria to be isolated.

[Richard A]

Another option is insistence on a strictly neutral Ukraine. The example that's always cited is Finland, but another is Austria: the Soviets dropped the idea of an Austrian version of the GDR in return for Austria not joining Western organisations like NATO or the planned EEC. It's probably a better comparison for Ukraine: "you want us to withdraw our troops; in return, you don't cosy up to our enemies". Zelensky would need to go - if not against a wall, then into exile, as with Saakashvili.

[Мастер]

Zelensky would need to go

Maybe he could get back his old job, playing the president of Ukraine in a television comedy.

[Мастер]

Discussion of legal issues.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/daily-co ... r-criminal

As Russia is not party to the Rome statute, he cannot be charged with aggression at the ICC. Charges regarding the conduct of the war can be made - e.g., if Russian troops commit a massacre. But as per the article, that can be a difficult charge to make stick.

And of course, taking the defendant into custody would likely be an issue here. I do not anticipate that that would happen unless there is a change of administration to something less nationalistic in Russia. And anti-western nationalism is quite popular in Russia, it's not just Putin.

[Lianachan]

As more or less a roads and communications archaeologist these days, I absolutely love this.